A Study of Handicap Hurdles – 2 miles 1 furlong or less

This month I am switching away from my flat research to look at National Hunt data in specific handicap hurdles.

The focus is on handicap hurdle races of 2m 1f or less (for the record I have included races of 2m 1½f as they tend to be advertised as 2m 1f events).

I have studied all the qualifying races from 2017 to 2020 focusing on UK races.

All profits/losses have been calculated to Betfair SP, less the 5% commission. Let us crack on and see what I have found:

Betting Market / Odds – Let us look firstly at market factors to see if they give us any pointers. The prices analysed are traditional SP prices:

There seems strong market / price bias here – combining the horses priced 9/4 or shorter would have produced an overall profit, albeit a small one. For the record, clear favourites won 411 of 1250 races (SR 32.88%) for a profit of £46.55 (ROI + 3.73%).

It should also be noted that bigger priced horses have a poor record – those priced 14/1 or bigger have proven very costly to follow even using Betfair.

For Gold readers Dave shares his research on 5 other factors of interest for Handicap Hurdles and gives us his conclusion based on the research data, which includes the jockey/trainer combo with a 166% ROI!

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Happy punting everyone!

David Renham  

Featured Image: (CC BY 4.0) – https://www.flickr.com/photos/43555660@N00