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Abundance in August

The longest day may have passed, but the summer is still with us and there is still plenty of Flat Turf racing to be had over the coming months.

Back in the early days in 2016 we noticed what we thought may be a profitable system, backing EW Edward Lynam’s’ runners in Ireland on the Turf Flat and the All Weather when they ran over 6-8f. 2013-2015 had been positive.

Backing to Win only saw a win strike rate of 27.45% and an SP profit of 99.50 points (BFSP 294.96 points), which of course told us that there was a large, priced winner in there, but even so, profits were spread over the 3 years.

Our advice on the day was to back Each Way based on the overall place strike rate of 47.06% which to SP bumped up the profits to 126.77points for that period.

And what happened?

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Yep, you guessed it the whole idea imploded and for the next four years it was loss, a small profit, loss, and loss!

Although you would have made a profit in 2017 from that one winner had you used BFSP! The strike rates fell by the wayside.

The overall Win strike rate for 2016-2019 was just 7.84% and place strike rate down to 27.45% for that period.

Roll forward to 2020 and 2021.

The strike rates still haven’t broken any records, but the BFSP profit for 2020/2021 isn’t to be sniffed at.

It seems to us that when he lands a winner, that winner comes in at a healthy price on the exchanges.

So, we thought we’d look at the prices of those winners over the years.

Of the 129 selections (2013-2019 – averaging fifteen runners in each year), there have been twenty-one winners and of those twenty-one runners ten have had a BFSP of 10.00 or greater.

The one thing we have noticed is that the Irish Racing on Betfair often offers a significant advantage in terms of prices. Once you get into the double figure prices there is an exponential price difference, whether that is down to liquidity we are not sure.

What we do know is that his strike rates are equally split between Turf Flat and the All Weather, and also between Handicaps and Non Handicaps, so we have no chance of know where or when that big, priced winner if any is going to land.

But…at the time of writing, 2022 has been going reasonably well for the Lynam yard on the All Weather in particular, and we’re thinking of giving the yard one more shot during August and possibly beyond, by backing his runners with a BFSP of 10.00 or greater.

System 10: Back Ed Lynam’s runners over 6f-1 mile for the month of August on the All Weather in the Betfair Win and Place markets.

If you think you have a winning formula you’d like us to research for you then please let us know, we’d love to hear from you. You can make a suggestion here

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