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Acorn 5 Pointers and The Wellies Update

So here we are already looking toward the heady summer months, although as we are writing this any thoughts of summer may be pushed to the back of our mind as the winter chills seem to have returned.

We have reached the end of our first run of Acorn 5 Pointers (those running from January – March), and it would be prudent to reflect on the results however painful they may be.

January Issue 86
System No:MonthSP ProfitSP ROIBFSP ProfitBFSP ROIBanked
46Jan-March+8.00400.00%+9.67483.61%+8.00
47Jan-March-7.67-63.92%-7.28-60.63%-7.28
 Net+0.33   +0.72

System 46: We banked our 8.00 points profit last month for this system from just 2 runs from the same horse. There have been no subsequent runners since our last update. As such we will follow this system again next year.

System 47: Sadly, the results for this system proofed less successful.

February Issue 87
System No:MonthSP ProfitSP ROIBFSP ProfitBFSP ROIBanked
100Feb-April-5.75-63.89%-5.65-62.76% 
98Feb-April-12.75-60.71%-12.60-60.00% 

There is still time for both above systems to turn a profit, but we do need to find a winner soon or we may get cold feet on these!

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine
March Issue 88
System No:MonthSP ProfitSP ROIBFSP ProfitBFSP ROIBanked
88March-May0.000.00%0.000.00% 
87March-May0.000.00%0.000.00% 
86March-May-2.00-100.00%-2.00-100.00% 

The number of runners from these systems haven’t really kicked in yet. So, fingers crossed there will be some profits by the end of April.

April Issue 89
System No:MonthSP ProfitSP ROIBFSP ProfitBFSP ROIBanked
84April-June-2.00-100.00%-2.00-100.00% 
83April-June-1.17-16.71%-0.92-13.19% 
82April-June0.000.00%0.000.00% 
80April-June0.000.00%0.000.00% 

Results as of 13th April

In a separate article “What about the going?”, we also looked at the summer hurdles when going was reportedly good to soft or soft, following for the months of April through to September. Still very early days with 5 runners to date (1 winner, 1 placed). We remain hopeful.

And so, to May-July, we are hoping for a good summer this year both over the jumps during the summer and on the Turf Flat and we have identified a handful of trainers which may be worth following over the coming summer months.

The Summer Jumps – The Midlands has it sorted

David Brace (D Brace)

David Brace offers up one of those feel good stories we all need from time to time. A former Welsh coal miner, Brace is now not only a successful businessman and stud owner, and racehorse trainer, but he is also a philanthropist, who was awarded an OBE in 2013. Brace has been a massive contributor to the Welsh Point to Point scene.

A relatively small stable of runners he has produced healthy profits in 2019 and 2021 (2020 was 0 from 6 runs), but with runners coming in at 11/1-20/1 we don’t need many to win from a small selection to return a profit.

Profits and runs have tended to come during June and July and interestingly his success in the recent years has been with those runners that stay close to home or nip over the border into the Midlands.

And his best success comes with his Hurdlers so we will be following closely the David Brace Hurdlers running over the summer months.

System 79: Back David Brace Hurdlers when running at tracks close to home (Wales and Central England).

Fergal O’Brien

This next trainer for the summer jumps goes against our natural Acorns inclination as the trainer has a plethora of runners, we are talking Fergal O’Brien, but it can not be avoided that he has had good success over recent years.

We have tried to get to the bottom of the Fergal O’Brien runners in previous systems and did manage to make profits during the month of November, but there may be an opportunity for some profits during the summer months too and with his Hurdlers.

Blindly backing his hurdlers since 2019 during the May-July window would have seen you make a profit each year.

You may notice that there are a considerably higher number of runners during 2021 because of O’Brien adding a second yard to his training operation. This could mean that things go one of two ways for us.

We could find ourselves with a diluted profits scenario or we may find that there are runners which may be missed by the day to day punter as they try to analyse the O’Brien stables and tactics.

Most of his runners over hurdles during the past three years, as with David Brace have stayed central (he moved to Cheltenham, Gloucestershire in 2019),

Short, priced runners are often the norm of the day for the O’Brien yard, which is something else that here in the Acorns corner we are not keen on, but O’Brien has a habit of routinely landing a seriously large double priced winner here and there.

The short, priced runners, if landing their races, may just make following his hurdlers when running in Central England palatable with the hopes of landing a profit, but concentrate on the NON handicappers. That is where the better prices have been.

System 78: Back Fergal O’Brien Non Handicap Hurdlers when running at tracks in Central England.

The Summer Turf Flat

William Stone (WB Stone)

Previously a wild boar farmer William Stone now concentrates his efforts on training racehorses and if recent years are to go by, he’s doing a pretty good job of it.

But it his handicappers which are the stand outs with 18 of those 20 winners coming in Handicaps and the bulk of those over 6-8 furlongs.

We like the smaller stables as they can often go unnoticed so we will be keeping a good eye on the Stone runners over the summer months of May-July.

System 77: Back William Stones Handicap runners over 6-8f

The 2022 Grand National – Update

Well, we didn’t see that one coming did we, but the stats are made to be broken and the feel good story of this year’s winner, Noble Yeats, ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen.

As far as our criteria was concerned…

Well, let’s just say we categorically proved that the race really is a “pin” race and has little to do with statistics.

Not one of the 21 runners that fell in to the above criteria even finished in the places, yes, we did say that, not one!!

What About The Going – Update

System No:MonthSP ProfitSP ROIBFSP ProfitBFSP ROIBanked
85Apr-Sept-7.50-53.57%-7.40-53.57% 

Still very early days for this one and so we plan to run this through to the end of June initially. If the results at that time are positive, we will then continue following until the end of September as originally suggested.

Featured Image: (CC BY 4.0)  –   Newbury Race Course

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