Ascot Racecourse Template (Friday 1 October 2021)

The Racing Horse offers their Ascot Racecourse Template for Friday 1 October 2021. There is a 6-race card including 3 Handicaps, a Classified, a Novice and a Listed Race. 

The ground is currently good to soft (good in places) but rain is due today and all tomorrow morning, so care needed, the ground might be soft at 1.55pm.

FAVOURITES – We look at winning favourites at Epsom in two parts.

Favourites in non-handicaps at Ascot have a poor strike rate compared to most other UK racecourses, in fact 2yo favourites in non-handicaps have a miserable conversion, the lowest from any racecourse.

Conversely, winning favourites in handicaps win at the national average and return a level stake profit to SP of £44.21. Favourites across the board at Ascot show 183-548 for 33% and a level stake profit of +13.85

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

TRAINERS – The template shows how hard it is even for our top trainers to have regular winners at Ascot, most of them are considerably down on their national averages.

From our 5-year leader board J & T Gosden 2, Roger Varian 1 and Andrew Balding 4 have runners, but Muir & Grassick send 4 and this year at the course show 4-7 for 57% (+33.50) so +40% above their national average.

Other trainers of interest with runners include Saeed bin Suroor 1, William Haggas 2, Richard Hannon 2 and Mark Johnston 1.

Johnston has awful figures at Ascot and hard to explain!

His 5-year figures show 21-243 for 9% (-115.88) and this year is even worse 2-40 for just 5% (-27.00). Conversely, he has won 3 of the last 10 runnings of the 4.15 and travels 243 miles with King's Advice

JOCKEYS – Interesting 4 of our top 5 jockeys on both leader boards have 11 rides including Ryan Moore 3, Oisin Murphy 4, Jim Crowley 2 and Frankie Dettori 2.

There must be winners from this grouping!

Oisin Murphy – has just started a losing run (14), he has 4 rides at Ascot, he did have rides at Salisbury, so a check is needed.

Neil Callan – has a ride tomorrow and we are fascinated to see how he gets on, not this year but next! We are reminded of his 282 winners in Hong Kong winning £37.1m for connections. His return to the UK shows 5-68 for 7% (-21.67)

OWNERS – Godolphin have just the one runner on Friday, the only entry on our leader board.

DID YOU KNOW – Some interesting numbers for trainers at Ascot over the past 5 years, not all of which are relevant for today.

Richard Hannon 18-281 for 6%, Archie Watson 4-80 for 5%, Richard Fahey 6-132 for 5%. By the way Mick Quinn is 3-5 for 60%, how did that happen?

Jockeys to include Tom Marquand 9-144 for 6%, Silvestre De Sousa 17-225 for 8%, Sean Levey 4-80 for 5%, and Ray Dawson 6-26 for 23%. Do these numbers matter? Of course, they do! 

Pertinence

1.55

DINOO (R Varian) – beaten favourite last time out.
ENIGMATIC (J Parr) – C&D winner, ridden by hot jockey Cieren Fallon

2.30
BARTZELLA (W Haggas) – beaten favourite last time out, hot trainer and 25% with horses 10f+ and Tom Marquand rides
KINGSOFTHEMIDLANDS (A Balding) – beaten favourite last time out, Silvestre De Sousa rides

3.05
CHALK STREAM (W Haggas) – course winner, going for 4-timer, hot trainer and 25% with horses 10f+ and Tom Marquand rides
SCOPE (R Beckett) – drops from Group 1 to Listed, trainer has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

3.40
BICKERSTAFFE (K Burke) – C&D winner, travels 244 miles, Cieren Fallon rides
PROP FORWARD (C Cox) – trainer 16% with handicap debutants. Trainer 18-138 for 13% (+135.35) and £1,100,213 in prizemoney. Trainer 4-26 for 15% for current year.

4.15
FUTURE INVESTMENT (R Beckett) – beaten favourite last time out, first time blinkers
INDIANAPOLIS (I Williams) – weighted to win 97 > 83, trainer shows profit of £19.37 with first head gear and wears first time tongue strap

4.50
CLIFFS OF CAPRI (J Osborne) – beaten favourite last time out
IBIZA ROCKS (C Hills) – beaten favourite last time out
WOVEN (M Dods) – longest traveller 264 miles, trainer 6-24 for 25% (+22.38), weighted to win 92 > 87, first time cheek piece
SUNRAY MAJOR (J & T Gosden) – hot trainer and hot jockey, Dettori scores at 40% with winning favourites

Jason Weaver on Ascot

Because the run-in on Ascot’s round course is relatively short, positioning – jockeyship in other words – is key. It goes without saying that in steadily-run races you want to be towards the sharp end but, whatever the pace, you can get into trouble trying to come through rivals late on. We’re still learning about the straight course, following the relaying a few years back, but in my view it’s more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. Given the right pace to chase, I reckon you can win from anywhere.

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse

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