The Jumps Season will be with us soon. With that in mind, I thought I would look at a rather unique race in the Jumps race card, National Hunt Flat Races, a.k.a. Bumpers.
These are flat races, as the name suggests, and are found usually at the end of a Jumps Race card. You will either see the full title ‘National Hunt Flat Race’ or ‘NH Flat Race’ in the race title.
Having looked at the last 10 years’ trends, there are some excellent profitable angles to pass on to you for favourites in these Bumpers.
All profits are recorded to Betfair Starting Price. All lay profits are recorded as follows:
Backer’s Stake (the lay equivalent of level stakes but liability fluctuates with the odds) – £10 to win.
Fixed Liability – £10 risked.
Lay 1-4 Staking Plan £10 starting Backer’s Stake up to a Maximum of £40 Backer’s Stake.
Pay attention to favourites from France.
Staking Plan: Lay Fixed Liability
Profit – £100 into £547.62
Honourable mentions: Lay 1-4 Staking Plan has turned £100 into £1500 and has tended to retrieve losses…. eventually.
Dam Country France.
A real niche this one. The accompanying video will show you where to find all of the pertinent information.
Backer’s Stake – £100 into £418
Lay 1-4 Staking Plan – £100 into £1104.
Note: This has really profited strongly since 26th December 2018 – ride the wave?
Damsire Country France
There is a real French theme isn’t there?
Backer’s Stake – £100 into £629
Fixed Liability – £100 into £447.37
Lay 1-4 Staking Plan – £100 into £1712
Price Filter – Lay qualifying favourites if their odds are equal to or less than 5.00 decimal odds. This Price Filter really smooths out the Profit Graphs.
5 year old to 7 year old Qualifiers.
A focus here on Bumpers restricted to 5 year old to 7 year old qualifiers. Any age restrictions will be mentioned within the race title at www.racingpost.com
Staking Plan – All 3 featured Staking Plans Profit well.
Backer’s Stake: £100 into £788.60
Fixed Liability – £100 into £686.17 (lesser profit but controlled risk)
Lay 1-4 Staking Plan £100 into £2335.60
Special Remarks: All Profit Graphs are smooth which suggests a positive future.
Race Distance 2 miles and 2 furlongs.
Staking Plan – Lay 1-4 Staking Plan £100 into £1166.70. As I write, all outstanding losses have been retrieved.
The other 2 staking plans have profited historically but are on a slight sideways pattern currently. Lay 1-4 Staking Plan has done its job consistently for the last 10 years.
Favourites travelling 151 to 200 miles to the course.
Staking Plan – Lay 1-4 Staking Plan. £100 into £1888.70.
Price Filter – Lay qualifying favourites if their odds are equal to or less than (=<) 5.00 decimal. What I look for with the Lay 1-4 Staking Plan is its ability to bring the series deficit (a.k.a. accumulated losses) back to zero. This staking plan has achieved that here.
The other 2 staking plans do profit but the current bank is just above the level it was in May 2017
Actual Going Good to Soft
Staking Plan – Lay 1-4 Staking Plan. £100 into £1615.
Price Filter – Lay qualifying favourites if their odds are equal to or less than (=<) 5.00 decimal.
A focus purely on 6/4 favourites to Industry SP (in other words, the odds at the bookies as distinguished from the betting exchanges) has yielded a solid layers’ profit. I have no rhyme or reason why. I just pass on the past trends!
Backer’s Stake – £100 into £490
Lay Fixed Liability – £100 into £326
Lay 1-4 Staking Plan – £100 into £1202. All losses currently cleared.
Lay Sire Oscar
There are infrequent selections but an apparent clear pattern from the small sample of qualifiers.
There have only been 4 qualifiers in 2023 to date.
Backer’s Stake – £100 into £451.70
Lay Fixed Liability – £100 into £244.18
Lay 1-4 Staking Plan – £100 into £691.10.
A 75.6% strike rate.
Longest losing sequence of only 2.
Sire country USA
Lay Fixed Liability – £100 into £480.22
Weight Rank 5
What do I mean?
Quite simply, the 5th highest weight in the race, top weight being Weight Rank 1
Lay Fixed Liability – £100 into £338 presents the smoothest price graph.
Favourites in Bumpers are weighted in favour of the layers. That much seems clear.
There is a strong French influence too if you noticed that.
I will refresh your memory in the accompanying video as regards where to find the pertinent information for qualifiers and remind you of the 3 unique lay staking plans.