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Cheltenham 2023 day 1 selections

A Q and A with David Leslie – PlayScoop6

If you want to Play the Scoop 6 then David Leslie is the man you need to talk to.

Hi David and many thanks for agreeing to join us this month.

1. Would you start by telling our readers a little about yourself and your background? What attracted you to the world of horse racing and what do you enjoy most about the sport?

Actually, to begin with, it was my late grandfather. He worked from home as a tailor and when I would go round there as a young boy, he’d be sitting in the dining room with his Sporting Life newspaper sprawled across the dining table together with his pencil and exercise book, studying the form. Once he’d done his work and when my grandmother wasn’t looking, he would tootle off to the bookmakers, placing a few shillings on his fancies. Of course, I never knew whether he won or lost but the whole mystery fascinated me.

Later, in 1977, when I was 14 and laid up in hospital with a broken leg, he gave me a tip for the Derby – “The Minstrel”, it was, ridden by Lester Piggott – and it bloomin’ well won!

Finally, in 1981, aged 18 and in my first job earning a princely £3,150 per annum (I had money then!), my then boss gave me an inside word (from the stable) on King’s Glory, about 6 months in advance of the 1982 Lincoln, on which I put a massive (for me) £20 at an antepost price of 25/1. It also bloomin’ won (at 11/1 SP), I bought myself my first stack stereo system and I was hooked!

2. How did the setting up of PlayScoop6 come about? Where did the idea of the syndicate come from?

It was really, for me, a logical progression, and to fill what I considered to be a real gap in the market, about which I’ve been proved right.

First, I was part of a £3.2 million Scoop6 win (see below) and I also ran a Scoop6 syndicate as part of a tipping service I previously ran.Read More »A Q and A with David Leslie – PlayScoop6

Brett Love Loves Racing

Brett Love Loves Racing

A Q and A Session

1. Hi Brett and many thanks for joining us this month, would you start by telling us a little about yourself and your background?

Hi and very nice to be here. I originally had the same boyhood dream as a lot of young lads in that I was desperate to be a professional footballer. Lucky for me and due to passion and ability I got the chance to fulfil that fantasy when I was picked up by West Bromwich Albion as a 13 year old schoolboy.

I worked and trained very hard and eventually I was chosen to be 1 of 12 apprentices. For the next 2 years I played at a lot of the best grounds in England and was pretty successful and I was over the moon when they offered me professional terms just after my 17th birthday.

I started the 1st season as a pro brilliantly, scoring and creating lots of goals and I was soon propelled into travelling with the 1st team. Read More »Brett Love Loves Racing

Racing’s Dark Arts: Finding Winners in the Parade Ring

Racing’s Dark Arts: Finding Winners in the Parade Ring

You study the form, you might listen to William Hill Racing Radio, you might watch Racing UK or ATR or have an afternoon or evening at the races. But when you go racing, how much time do you spend looking at the horses in the Parade Ring or pre-parade ring and do you know what you’re looking for or do you tend to spend the time before the race in the nearest bar or champagne lawn.

This month’s article looks at what some pundits see as one of the “dark arts” of the sport that of paddock watching. I will hopefully provide you with some of the basic concepts to be able to read a racehorse; identify the positive and, of course just importantly, the negative things to look in the parade ring and show that it’s not a difficult task when you know what you’re looking for. That knowledge combined with your form or statistical analysis can give you a serious edge over other punters and help you select more winners and maybe avoid a few losers.

Some of you reading this will be experienced paddock watchers already and if that’s the case most of what you are about to read will be covering familiar ground but for the beginner it will hopefully provide a short introduction to the topic. Now I realise we are dealing with a subjective discipline here and my opinion can differ from someone else’s but if you follow the basics I am about to outline It hopefully help to at the very least get more out of the sport.

Before I begin I want to briefly mention who I consider one of the best paddock watchers in the business Ken Peterson who is the course paddock man with William Hill Radio. His comments are often insightful, particularly when it comes to races with lots of unraced two-year-olds. At this time of year his paddock comments can be invaluable with horses starting to go in their coats particularly the fillies. If you haven’t listened to Ken on the radio I suggest you do as you will gain plenty of insights from listening to him.

Horses Are Just ‘Flesh and Blood’

The form of the horse is obviously very important when it comes to finding selections, but looking at horses in the parade ring can also be a path to finding plenty of winners and conversely avoiding plenty of losers.

Horses are mammals like us and just like us they have their own personalities and like us they have their off days, some are no longer in love with the game, some maybe showing signs of racing fatigue, some just look like they would rather be back home in their nice stable box than do anything as taxing as running as fast as they can in a race with another group of horses.

Then you have horses that can’t wait to get onto the track and race; they show their love for racing in the way that they conduct themselves in the run up to a race. Go to the paddock before a race and you will see both positive and negative attributes on show. The horse who is interested in racing will come into the paddock looking at the crowd. It’s probably obvious but interested and happy horses have more success on the racecourse.

Things to Look For In the Paddock:

So you’re by the side of the parade ring watching the horses as they round with their handlers so what should you be looking for? I think there are three important things to look out for: What does the horse look like? What’s its condition? And finally what’s its behaviour like?

What Does the Horse Look Like? – Let’s start by looking at the horses head.

Head – Watch how the horse carries its head. Is the head up? Are its eyes looking around? What about its eyes? Can you see too much white about them? A horse normally shows the whites of its eyes when it fears something. Now if the horse in question is having its first start then that wouldn’t be too much of a negative but for more experienced horses its would be a negative.

Ears – Are the horses ears pricked? Even better are they moving towards the sounds, showing that it’s interested in what going on around it?

Are the horses ears pinned back? If they are this can be a sign that that it’s not in a good mood and will probably not give its best running. Likewise if the horse’s ears look limp and flop then it can be a sign that it’s not feeling 100% and once again will probably not give its best in the race.Read More »Racing’s Dark Arts: Finding Winners in the Parade Ring

Legends of the Turf – Nicky Henderson

Nicky Henderson was born in December 1950 in Lambeth, South London. The son of the late Johnny Henderson MBE, a former Aide-de-camp to Field Marshall Montgomery who also had an early introduction to the racing lifestyle as his father who had also been a financier was one of the founders of the Racecourse Holdings Trust, a forerunner to the Jockey Club Racecourses.

During his father’s tenure at the Racecourse Holdings Trust Henderson Snr helped to secure the future of the mecca of all National Hunt Racing courses, Cheltenham, and in recognition in 2005, two years after his death, Cheltenham honoured Henderson Snr by naming one of the races at the famous Festival after him, The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Race.

Henderson Jr’s early life saw an education at Eton and the Royal Agricultural College in Cirencester before taking up a position at the prestigious stockbrokers, Cazenove in both London and Australia where he also gained valuable riding experience at Randwick in New South Wales. A city broker’s career though was not to be for Nicky Henderson as his passion for riding and horse racing saw him take a different path.

In 1974 he took up a post as Assistant Trainer with the legendary Fred Winter whilst also continuing to ride as an amateur jockey and winning races including the Fox Hunters Chase at Aintree on Happy Warrior.

Henderson has been quoted as saying that still even now sending runners to the track to race still makes him as frightened as the day he rode in the race. Apparently on race day he “did a fair impression of a barnacle” (Independent 9th April 1999). According to Henderson, “It was a bit hairy because unfortunately we didn't have a breast girth on the horse and the saddle finished round his tail,” Henderson says. “It was a bit scary at the time, but fun when you look back on it.”

In his amateur jockey career which spanned some 6 years he rode more than 70 winners including Acquaint in the Imperial Cup at Sandown in 1977, the same year as his Happy Warrior win.

The final victory of his racing career was in June 1978 with Rolls Rambler winning the Horse & Hound Cup at Stratford. One month later Henderson stepped in to the world of training the horses rather than riding them.

The Windsor House Stables were his first training stomping ground when he succeeded Roger Charlton at the yard and his first winner was in 1978 with Dukery at Uttoxeter, and the following year saw him make his mark by seeing Zongalero finish second to Rubstic in the Grand National!

His roll of top class horses have included the likes of the unpredictable See You Then who according to Henderson had “taken chunk’s out of me” even though he would give the horse a carrot every night! He would forgive the horse though given his wins which included the Champion Hurdle in 1985, 1986 and 1987 and he was subsequently crowned Champion National Hunt Trainer in the 1985/86 and 1986/87 seasons.

From his humble beginnings it was the stable swap with Peter Walwyn and the move to Seven Barrows in 1992 which sealed some amazing results for the now well-known trainer including excellent results at the prestigious Cheltenham Festival

Other stand out performances include Remittance Man which won the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 1992, Punjabi winning the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle in 2009 and the win the following year by Binocular which gave Henderson his fifth win in the race matching the record held by Peter Easterby. Also Long Run won the 2011 Gold Cup and Bobs Worth won the Blue Riband event in 2013. His record at the Cheltenham Festival is particularly good and no currently active trainer has won more races at the Festival than Nicky Henderson.

But don’t think that his winners are purely Cheltenham bound.

Away from the Cheltenham course he has also landed one or two of the biggest National Hunt races around including the King George VI Chase at Kempton with the dual winner Long Run, and the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury thanks to Trabolgan in 2005, Bobs Worth in 2012 and Triolo D’Álene in 2013.

Bob’s Worth was a tale of relative rags to riches as the horse only cost a mere £20,000 and his win was all the more sweeter as Henderson had clear concerns over the soft ground before the race started and how Bob’s Worth would perform under such conditions.

More recently though there is no doubt that he has trained one of the very greatest two mile chasers in history in Sprinter Sacre. The horse is referred to by many as the best since the days of Arkle after regaining his crown in the 2016 Champion Chase at Cheltenham. It was an amazing training feat given that the horse had not won a race in almost two years! Sprinter Sacre was initially suspected of having a heart problem but he was eventually retired after having sustained a leg injury.

Unfortunately Henderson’s career has not been all roses though and a particular controversy in 2009 is probably one he would rather forget.

In June 2009 Henderson was found guilty of breaching the Rules of Racing by the British Horseracing Authority. Moonlit Path was being trained by Henderson for The Queen and the horse failed a drug’s test.

The drug purportedly used was one which prevented bleeding of the horses, a common problem, and the preventive drug was found in Moonlit Path’s blood stream.

Henderson actually admitted to three of the four counts against him at the hearing but argued strongly that the drug had only been administered in the horse’s best interest and welfare and that he had in no way been trying to improve the performance of the horse.

Later in July that year there was a second hearing to determine what sanctions would be applied to Henderson and the yard and a fine was imposed for £40,000, a record penalty in the UK, and banned from running his horses for a period of three months. Fortunately in some way for Henderson the imposed ban inconvenienced him little as being primarily a jumps trainer his main season was hardly affected as the ban took place over the summer. He was allowed to continue to train while the ban was in place, but the damage to his reputation was a cost he would have to endure.

Henderson also trains flat horses though and while the ban was in place most of his horses were transferred to his friend Barry Hills yard. One high class horse in the stable at the time was Caracciola which was due to run at Royal Ascot that year. Hills as trainer ran the horse with Henderson appearing at the course as Barry Hills “guest”, needless to say this caused some controversy but as Henderson had not been “warned off” no rules were broken.

Caracciola had already won the Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket in 2008 at the grand price of 50/1 and the horse subsequently went on to win the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot the following year.
By the end of the 2016/2017 National Hunt season Henderson had been crowned Champion trainer for the fourth time after yet another massive battle with his rival Paul Nicholls after having accrued £2,846,487 as a result of 154 winners from his 618 runners. The trainer title went right down to the wire with the final days racing of the season holding sufficient prize money to have seen either trainer take the title. Henderson’s triumph was all down to the success of Altior in the Celebration Chase at Sandown.

That seasonal strike rate of 24.90% is phenomenal considering that represents pretty much that 1 horse in every 4 Henderson saddled through that year had made it in to the winner’s enclosure. In addition, there were a further 170 horses which finished placed!

It was the Grade 1 winners which were the stand out and that tipped the balance for Henderson and his yard though.

It undoubtedly comes as no surprise that his runners are pretty well supported in the market and that overall, although not quite losing your shirt, you would have lost close to 10% of your total stakes had you backed all of his runners blindly based on the Industry Starting Prices during the major part of the season (October to April).

As you may be aware, here at OCP we quite like delving in to the statistics and seeing if there is ever something statistically we may be able to turn to our advantage and can yield us a profit.

Interestingly had you backed all of his handicap runners blindly over the past 5 years you would have turned a small profit had you used the Betfair SP, although we emphasise that the return was small, around 5.50%, still better than most savings rates currently though.

But, if we break down the handicap runners between the race types…Read More »Legends of the Turf – Nicky Henderson

Cheltenham 2023 day 1 selections

Horses returning from a lay off: Do they provide us with profitable betting opportunities?

Horses Returning from a Lay Off

When I first began my punting journey back the mid 80s, it seemed a given that horses returning from a long lay off didn’t win races. They always needed a run or two to reach winning form. Those days have long gone. Changes in training methods, improvements in veterinary care, stable facilities, such as swimming pools, all weather gallops have all combined to mean that the big trainers and of course some smaller ones are able to get horses to win after a long lay off from the track.

In this article I will be investigating horses that are returning from an absence from the track and see how they can be underestimated by the betting public. I will also show some practical examples of horses that run better when fresh and trainers who can prepare one after a lay off and those that don’t.

Why the prejudice against lay off horses?

As punters we tend to approach betting on horses as we first learned it. I know that I have and I am sure you will have stuck with some of the fundamentals that you learned as a betting newcomer. Because so many punters still view layoffs of 90 days or more as a significant fitness obstacle, there can be value in horses returning to the course after a break.
Medication and the growing fragility of thoroughbreds have changed horse racing… Horses need more time between races to recover, and on the flip side, sometimes don't need as much activity to win off a layoff.

In this change there lies an opportunity for bettors to capitalise. This is not to say that all layoff horses make great bets. They do not. On a whole they remain less effective than their active opponents, whom have been running regularly. There are exceptions, and these are the ones to embrace.

Fillies, particularly those who are naturally light, run well when fresh. Some even run better. A series of hard races can cause these fillies to dip below what their trainers feel are their target weight levels. So when they return from time off – which often is spent out in a field grazing – they come back rejuvenated. Then they often proceed to run good efforts from the get go!

How do you spot such a horse on paper or if you are at the course looking at the horses in the paddock?

Read More »Horses returning from a lay off: Do they provide us with profitable betting opportunities?
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