Cheltenham Racecourse Template (Friday 12 November 2021)

The Racing Horse offers their RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Cheltenham (Friday 12 November 2021) where there is a 6-race card including 4 handicaps, 1 novice chase and 1 novice hurdle (Grade 2).

The going is expected to be good to soft.

(%): UK National Average  E: Entries  R: Rides

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Cheltenham over the past 5 years show 130-421 for 30.88% (-49.88) so just below the national average.

Winning favourites in handicaps perform badly at the course with 45-188 for 24% yet conversely show a level stake loss of -15.38. NHF winners at this course, albeit from a small sample, show a miserable 3-23 for 13% (-13.25) for favourite backers.

TRAINERS: Fergal O'Brien trains 10 miles from the course, he has 6 runners entered at this stage and 4 of those in the 4.00.

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Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott supply 10 runners between them and the advice is filter these first, there will be winners in this grouping.

ELLIOTT & MULLINS: Please note the national averages displayed are UK based. Mullins does not have a single entry at Cheltenham over the 3 days and currently on a losing run of 14 over 20 DAYS!

Mullins runs 3 at Clonmel today, cannot see an obvious winner?

  • 4.00 RACE: As we go to post trainer Fergal O'Brien has 4 entered in this race and if he doesn't win it he must go close. We note Paddy Brennan rides CITY DERBY. His other runners are SAMBA DANCER (Liam Harrison), BYZANTINE EMPIRE (A Heskin) and CASTEL GANDOLFO (M Kendrick).

COLD LISTS: The trainer cold list is of little help to us for tomorrow, though jockeys Fergus Gillard and Niall Houlihan are likely to break their losing run sooner rather than later.

JOCKEYS: Harry Skelton (4) looks to have the best batch of rides tomorrow, whilst Rachel Blackmore (2), Harry Cobden (1) and Davy Russell (2) should provide at least one winner between them!

  • HARRY COBDEN: The jockey has a national average of 21% yet rides Cheltenham at a low 8% so a massive 13% down. This coincides with trainer Paul Nicholls poor 9% strike rate at the course.

OWNERS: There is not much information regarding owner entries, only  Gigginstown has an entry in the Circus Race: ALPHA DES OBEAUX 2.55.

1.10

FONTANA ELLISSI (S Drinkwater) – beaten favourite last time out, formerly with N Twiston-Davies, first time cheek piece
THE WREKIN (H Daly) – drops from Grade 3 to Class 3
NEON MOON (D Pipe) – trainer has won race 4 times in the last 10 runnings, Fergus Gillard rides 0-45, also runs Paricolor

1.45

EDITEUR DU GITE (G Moore) – hot trainer 10-30 for 33%, Niall Houlihan rides 0-23
MAGIC SAINT (P Nicholls) – trainer 25% with chasers up to 2m3f, won 2 of the last 10 runnings
HATCHER (D Skelton) – drops from Grade 2 to Class 2, Harry Skelton rides

2.20

GIN ON LIME (H de Bromhead) – drops from Grade 3 to Class 2, Rachel Blackmore rides
MY DROGO (D Skelton) – drops from Grade 1 to Class 2, Harry Skelton rides

2.55

TALK IS CHEAP (M Keighley) – drops from Grade 3 to Class 2
BALKO DES FLOSS (H De Bromhead) – biggest earner at meeting £619,106, Rachel Blackmore rides and is 38% on chase favourites

3.30

GELINO BELLO (P Nicholls) – great time figure at Aintree, Grade1 material, Harry Cobden rides.

4.00

CITY DERBY (F O'Brien) – trainer shows profit of £18.12 with hurdlers winning after a break
PERCY'S WORLD (D Skelton) – beaten favourite last time out, Harry Skelton rides
SASHENKA (M Scudamore) – beaten favourite last time out
KAVANAGHS CROSS (I Jardine) – travelled 272 miles 

MICK FITZGERALD – CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE

To the naked eye, or to the layman, Cheltenham looks very stiff, but the two courses are actually totally different and I rate the Old Course much the quicker. So, especially on that, you need a horse that can travel easily within itself. Without one of those, you invariably find yourself snookered, because you’re always trying to get into a position to improve. Ideally, therefore, you need a horse that can get into a gap as soon as one appears, because there’s so little time to manoeuvre. If you have to think about going for a gap, nine times out of ten it’s too late – someone else will have got into it before you. As for the uphill finish, it only rides really testing if you’re on one that’s tying up. Then, it feels like an eternity from the last to the line”.

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse

Featured Image: Gloucestershire Warwickshire Railway (GWR) (CC BY-SA 4.0)

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