The Racing Horse offers their Chepstow Racecourse Template for Friday 19 November 2021.
There is a 7- race card and the going is expected to be good to soft.
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Chepstow produce a profit to level stakes. Over the past 5 years results show 160-409 for 39% (+6.10), so way above the national average of around 32%.
Best category are winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles showing 58-112 for 52% (+5.74). This decent sample is best acknowledged given these figures are without filtration and to SP.
TRAINERS: Our top 5 trainers at the course over the past 5 years all have runners (14 in total) and they look likely to dominate proceedings. From the 7 races on the card, they could provide at least 3 of the winners!
Paul Nicholls reigns supreme at the course and his all-time figures show 241-1010 for 24%. Last season he recorded 18-52 for 35% (+23.87). He has 2 runners tomorrow and is probably expecting a winner.
HOT TRAINER: Interesting to see Jackie Du Plessis from Cornwall sitting on top of the hot trainer list with 3-6 for 50% and she has 2 runners tomorrow, but she is also 0-26 at Chepstow over the last 5 years with just 1 second place.
JOCKEYS: Only Tom Scudamore represents from our leader boards has rides tomorrow, and he has had a couple of winners this week.
Daryl Jacob is at Chepstow and not Ascot for one ride, the same applies to Bryony Frost, and Ciaran Gethings is on a horrible losing run of 61 and has 2 rides.
HOT JOCKEY: Liam Harrison leads the hot jockey list, his last 4 rides have produced 3 winners, the other fell. He is 0-15 at Chepstow (3-9 for 33% at Cheltenham) but has a nice ride tomorrow that should be in the shake-up.
OWNERS: None of the top 5 owners at the course have a runner tomorrow.
- LEVEROCK LASS (T Reed) travelled 310 miles.
- NO NO JULIET (F O'Brien) trainer shows profit of £12.39 with chasers running after a break, hot trainer had 4 successive winners this week.
- THE TOOJUMPA (F O'Brien) hot trainer had 4 successive winners this week
- INDUNO (D Pipe) beaten favourite last time out and had wind surgery since last run, Tom Scudamore rides
- MORGENSTERN (D Pipe) formerly with D Satalia, Tom Scudamore rides
- MILLBANK FLYER (H Fry) trainer 20% with chasers up to 2m3f and 21% strike in early season
- CHANCEUX (A Ralph) trainer won 2 of his last 3 races, easily top RPR
- GAULOIS (P Nicholls) formerly with J J Hanlon, trainer 27% at the track
- JETOILE (R Potter) trainer 0-28, Daryl Jacob's only ride?
- OFFYOUPOP (P Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 27% at the track, Bryony Frost's only ride
- YOUNG BUTLER (E Lavelle) Tom Bellamy 39% on winning hurdling favourites
- GLENTROOL (S Thomas) beaten favourite last time out
- MR WASHINGTON (T Symonds) beaten favourite last time out
- TREASURE DILLON (E Williams) trainer shows profit of £12.00 with hurdlers off the track for over a year
Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump – Mick Fitzgerald