As we head into the New Year, I am going to look into horses that are having their first run on the all weather (having previously raced on the turf).
Due to it being this time of year I am going to ignore 2yo horses as no 2yos will be running in the first three months of the year.
For this article I have collated data going back to the start of 2016 with the focus on UK all weather tracks only (Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton).
All profit and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (less 5% commission).
It should be stated that this piece was written at the beginning of November, so the 2022 data set is not quite complete at the time of writing.
So how do we go about deciding upon how well a horse is likely to run on the sand? Especially if the horse has run a few times on the turf. Is it likely to replicate its turf form? Will it turn out to be better on the artificial surface? Maybe it will be worse?
Let me start by looking at all horses aged 3yo and older that are making their all weather debut having previously run at least once on the turf.
Rather bizarrely we can see that an overall profit has been achieved. However, as is often the case, this is generally down to a few big priced winners. Having said that, the strike rate of 12% is a point or two higher than I had expected.
I next decided to check out whether the number of previous turf runs made a difference to the strike rates.
This is what I found out:
It seems therefore that less exposed horses are more likely to have success when having their first run on the all weather than more exposed runners.
There is a huge differential in the strike rates when comparing horses that have had 5 or less turf runs with those who have had 21 or more.
This ‘less exposed’ is better pattern can be seen again when we look at the ages of horses having their first all weather run having previously run on turf:
3yos are comfortably best.
Avoiding horses aged 6 or older definitely looks the way to go.
It is time for me to look at trainers now.
To read what Dave has discovered for us with respect to trainers’ successes on the All Weather with their first runs CLICK HERE to upgrade to a Gold or Platinum account now!