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Future Race Pointers Re–Examined

Back in the summer of 2015 I looked at how horses performed next time out after running in a big flat race. There are two main reasons why I felt this was an area worth looking into, and indeed still do.

Firstly, some horses can only peak for relatively short periods and hence those that do indeed peak for a particular race may not be able to reproduce that level of form next time.

Secondly some horses that compete in these competitive races are simply outclassed, and hence if they run in an easier race next time, they may run well at a potentially good price. They may be underestimated by the betting public due to being well beaten last time out.

Anyway, these were two ideas I had then, and my thinking has not really changed since.

My original article looked at data from 10 years from 2005 to 2014. I am going to compare that data / those results with a more recent data set from 2015 to 2023. The most recent period is slightly shorter, but hopefully it should not make too much of a difference.

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In that original piece I used traditional Starting Price when looking at profit / loss, so it makes sense to do that again. Doing it this way also avoids the odd big priced Betfair winner which can skew the figures, especially as the data sets for each race are in some cases relatively modest.

OK it is time to crunch and compare.

Epsom Derby – horses that ran in the Derby last time out had the following overall record in their next race, split by our two time frames:

A difference in the strike rate with roughly one in six wins for 2005 to 2014 Derby runners compared with one in four for those from 2015 to 2023. Both groups have produced a profit with a much bigger one more recently.

Digging deeper I noted in the original piece that horses that performed ‘poorly’ in the Derby (those finishing 9th or worse), produced big returns. If you had followed these horses (2005 – 2014) on their very next start you would have secured 10 winners from 53 (SR 18.9%) for a profit of £47.00 (ROI +88.7%). This pattern has been replicated in the more recent time frame – 9 wins from 39 (SR 23.1%) for a profit of £31.90 (ROI + 81.8%).

It seems that the long term data suggests that horses that ran in the Derby last time are definitely worth considering next time. Remember these profits would be enhanced if using early prices or Betfair.

Epsom Oaks

– onto LTO English Oaks runners now.

Very similar strike rates and sound profits for both yearly splits. Interesting to see that last time out Oaks and Derby runners have both produced a profitable group of runners to follow next time in both time frames.

Hence, I would suggest keeping a list of these horses come June this year – hopefully they will prove profitable to follow in 2023.

This year’s Epsom Oaks and Epsom Derby will be run on Friday 2nd and Saturday 3rd June respectively. We will take note of the runners for 2023 and will post the list of runners in our Platinum Member’s Area with a further note to follow these.

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David Renham 

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