August 16, 2021

Glorious Goodwood and The Ebor

Goodwood Cup

It’s a massive shame that Subjectivist has suffered an injury as the rematch between him and Stradivarius at Goodwood would have been a clash with a real exciting build up. The fact it’s not happening does a take a little bit away from the race, but I still think it’s more competitive than it appears.

Stradivarius is going for a monumental fifth Goodwood Cup in a row. All things considered, will he win? Probably. But he’s a seven year old and even though he encountered trouble in running at Ascot, he was comfortably beaten and in my view even with a clear run he wouldn’t have won.

Serpentine is the one that interests me at 20/1.

The way he shaped as a three year old I think that leaves him with plenty of potential as a stayer as he matures.

He raced inefficiently in the Champion Stakes last season, but stayed on very well over a trip that would definitely be too short for him and he won the Derby showing no signs of stopping from the front. Supplemented for the Gold Cup, connections were clearly expecting a big run given he was well-punted into 11/1. Things just never went right on the day. Starting a bit slow, he was bustled along to get a good position, but he then dropped back a bit and was rushed up again, wide on the outside, round the bend and wasted too much energy at a crucial time.

He’s definitely worth another shot and two miles at Goodwood will hopefully suit him a bit better than the extra half mile at Ascot.

The Derby winner went round Epsom like he was on rails so I can’t see the track being a problem at all.

Recommended Bet

Back Serpentine @ 20/1 Each Way – unpl 8/1

Nassau Stakes

Audarya sets a pretty high standard for the rest to aim at here. Her form from the backend of last season and her reappearance when a close second to Love at Royal Ascot is top drawer. But it’s paid to stick with the three year olds in this race recently.

Seven of the last nine winners have been from the classic generation and there is a host queuing up to take a crack.

I could see this cutting up a bit though.

Snow Lantern stayed on strongly to win the Falmouth and is a filly going places. The extra couple of furlongs appears within her compass, but Aidan O’Brien has won this with a couple of top fillies in recent years and I think he’s got another one on the upgrade.

Joan Of Arc is from a superb family and each RPR this season has been better than the last, so her progression is exciting, and she almost certainly hasn’t reached her peak yet.

She should have won the Irish 1,000 Guineas but for getting done in the final stride by a stablemate. But making up for the that in the Prix de Diane over a mile and a quarter, her attitude again was terrific, and she stuck at it really well to fend off some late challenges whilst getting the better of the longtime leader.

I like the way this filly is going and think there is plenty more in the tank. She appears the type who saves a bit for herself and only does what she must, which bodes well in terms of potential improvement.

This looks the correct trip and even though her recent efforts have been with plenty of give underfoot, I’d like to see her on a quicker surface.

Recommended Bet

Back Joan Of Arc @ 8/1

Lillie Langtry Stakes

It’s looking as though Wonderful Tonight is heading for the King George (at the time of writing) which makes this race a little more open.

Valia would be an interesting runner coming over from France, but I think Kirsten Rausing has this race covered with Alpinista and Albaflora.

The former has to carry a penalty and on the balance on form, I’m definitely more keen on the latter.

Ralph Beckett has campaigned Albaflora extremely boldly since leaving the handicap ranks. Her last four starts have all been against the boys, a head second to the St Leger runner up, Berkshire Rocco, ended a promising campaign before she won the Buckhounds Stakes by a seriously impressive seven lengths on her return this year.

Pitched into the Coronation Cup next time she ran very well in fourth and again ran superbly when fifth in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. That form has already worked out well with the second, third and seventh all winning since.

This race would represent a significant drop in class for Albaflora and we know she stays the trip. Quick ground and track would be slight unknowns, but she’s a filly with a very high level of form in recent runs and I believe she’ll take plenty of beating on what we’ve seen this season.

Recommended Bet

Back Albaflora @ 4/1

Ebor Handicap

Last year was the first in four renewals that horses rated double figures made the cut for this race. That shows the quality that it’s attracting and with prize money back up this year, it’ll likely be back to triple figures rated horses only, once again.

I’m not sure there’s a real standout yet this season, unlike 2020 when Fujaira Prince was strongly fancied following his Royal Ascot romp. But one that ticks a lot of boxes for me is Roberto Escobarr.

He achieved a good level of form when winning his maiden by four lengths with Matthew Flinders and Brentford Hope in behind. Subsequently thrown into the Great Voltigeur, this proved a very tough ask on just his third start.

However, his RPR’s have improved with every run this season and evidence would suggest he really didn’t like the soft ground at Ascot. A course and distance winner in Listed company booked him a ticket for the Ebor before he ran a pretty good race in a Group 3. That’s a good level of form and off his unchanged rating of 107, that definitely gives him a shout here.

I’d say the ground is crucial and I’m hoping it’s going to be fast as that suits him far better than anything on the slow side. He’s still looked slightly babyish in his runs so as he’s becoming more experienced, he’s improving.

A strong stayer who on form should be more than competitive of this mark and providing the ground has firm in the description, I think he’ll go close.

Recommended Bet

Back Roberto Escobarr @ 16/1 Each Way

Alex Peperell

www.thepeptalk.co.uk

Featured Image: (CC BY 4.0)  –  York Races Dante 2014-34 | Kev Bailey | Flickr


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Steve Carter

Steve Carter is the Associate Editor of On Course Profits magazine. He has relied on his betting skills and knowledge for his income for the past 15+ years. He specialises in horse racing and football betting & trading and knows what it takes to make a living from betting. He is always looking for new angles for himself and On Course Profits readers.

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