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Goodwood Racecourse Template (Friday 20 May 2022)

The Racing Horse offers their insightful Goodwood Racecourse Template for Friday 20 May 2022 where they share those pertinent numbers.

There is a 7-race card containing 3 handicaps, 2 novice rand 2 Listed races.

The going is expected to be good, good to soft in places.

GOODWOOD FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                  Handicap
2yo   31-86   36%   -8.47     7-19     37%    +5.63
3yo   25-68   37%   -9.86     34-117   29%    -7.16
4yo+  25-47   53%  +10.90     65-156   42%   +50.59
Total 81-201  40%   -7.43     106-292  36%   +49.06

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Goodwood last 5 years     +/-   E
C & M Johnston (15%) 36-264  14%   -87.65   -1%   1
A Balding (15%)      29-186  16%   -46.04   +1%   4
W Haggas (22%)       25-117  21%    +2.51   -1%   4
R Beckett (17%)      18-100  18%   +28.18   +1%   2
R Hannon (12%)       17-228   7%   -74.00   -5%   3

HOT TRAINERS 20/04/2000 to 19/05/2022       +/-   E
W Haggas (22%)     26-66   39%   +7.23     +17%   4
C Appleby (29%)    17-56   30%   -5.17      +1%   3
J & T Gosden (20%) 22-79   28%  -12.36      +8%   4
G Boughey (18%)    15-63   24%   +2.52      +6%   1
C Hills (15%)      10-42   24%   +7.62      +9%   4

TRAINER COLD LIST   SAW   E
M Attwater (5%)      38   1
D Menuisier (12%)    22   5
S & E Crisford (20%) 18   1
T Ward (10%)	     18   2
G Baker (11%)        17   1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Goodwood last 5 years      +/-   E
O Murphy (19%)   44-241   18%   -15.22      -1%   0
H Bentley (13%)  23-121   19%   +57.63      +6%   0
J Crowley (19%)  23-146   16%   -67.26      -3%   5
W Buick (21%)    22-109	  20%   -16.38      -1%   7
T Marquand (14%) 20-170   12%   -22.20      -2%   7

HOT JOCKEYS 20/04/2022 to 19/05/2022        +/-   R
F Dettori (24%)  10-33	30%    -3.05        +6%   3
G Bass (9%)      5-20	25%   +31.00       +16%   1
H Davies (18%)   10-41	24%    +9.95        +6%   3
J Mitchell (17%) 16-67	24%   +42.33        +7%   1

JOCKEY COLD LIST   SAW   R
H Turner (10%)      30   3

TOP 5 OWNERS at Goodwood last 5 years       +/-   E
Ham A Maktoum (21%) 18-74   24%   -15.92    +3%   0
Godolphin (24%)     14-86   16%   -35.30    -8%   4
K Abdullah (25%)    10-30   33%   +31.09    +8%   0
Moh A Maktoum (15%) 10-68   15%    -6.16    +0%   0
Shadwell Est (22%)   7-26   27%   +10.56    +5%   0

FIXTURES
Friday 20 May 2022
Saturday 21 May 2022
Friday 3 June 2022
Sunday 5 June 2022
Friday 10 June 2022

(%): National Average E: Entries R: Rides

FAVOURITES: We have strange figures for Goodwood and hard to make sense of.

Favourites win 187-493 for 37.73 producing a level stake profit of +41.63 over the past 5 years. Ironically non-handicap favourites show a loss whilst handicap favourites show a nice profit. Non-handicaps show 81-201 for 40% (-7.43) yet winning favourites in handicaps score 106-292 for 36% (+49.06) and the latter shows a strike rate above the national average (32)%. It is also unusual, winning favourites aged 4yo+ have great figures, showing 90-203 for 44.33% and a big level stake profit of +61.49.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

TRAINERS: William Haggas (22%) has his horses in the most fantastic form not just over the past 14 days where he shows 16-34 for 47% but for 2022 where he has scored 47-151 for 31% for a small level stake loss.

He has 4 runners at Goodwood tomorrow, they are: SEA SILK ROAD 2.10, MONTASSIB 2.55, LYSANDER 3.20 & ICE HOUSE 3.35. He is almost certain to have another winner but probably a win double!

Roger Varian (20%) recently came off the cold list but now shows 1-29 for 3% over the past 14 days. We expect an upturn and he has 3 runners tomorrow.

We have 2 of our better trainers on the cold list and more likely than not to come off of it within the next week or so. David Menuisier (12%) is currently 0-22 and has 5 runners tomorrow. Will he reach 0-27? Team Crisford (20%) is now 0-18 and have 1 runner.

JOCKEYS: There are 3 top jockeys with 19 rides. William Buick (21%) has 7, Tom Marquand (14%) has 7 and Jim Crowley (19%) has 5 rides.

There will be a stack of winners from this grouping.

OWNERS: Of our top 5 owners only Godolphin (24%) have runners, they include:

MISCHIEF MAGIC 1.00, ETERNAL PEARL 2.10, ALDOUS HUXLEY & NATURAL WORLD 3.20.

1.00
MISCHIEF MAGIC
(C Appleby) Trainer 29%. Brother to 3 winners, including 2yo 5f/6f winner Sound And Silence and 2yo 7f winner Silent Bullet, both useful. Stable used this race as launchpad for Derby winner Masar in 2017. William Buick rides
ROYAL SCOTSMAN (P & O Cole) trainer shows profit of £45.47 when one runner at a meeting, Jim Crowley rides

1.35
BRILLIANT BLUE
(G Moore) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Queally rides
RAWYAAN (G Baker) formerly with M Tregoning, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Trevor Whelan rides
NUVOLARI (E Johnson-Houghton) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Charles Bishop rides

2.10
EMOTION
(J & T Gosden) hot trainer, highest RPR, Frankie Dettori rides and 42% on winning favourites
SEA SILK ROAD (W Haggas) hot trainer 21% at the course, Tom Marquand rides and 36% on winning favourites

2.45
MONTASSIB (W Haggas) hot trainer 21% at the course, Tom Marquand rides and 36% on winning favourites
THE ATTORNEY (C Hills) hot trainer shows profit of £25.27 with horses running after a break, William Buick rides

3.20
LYSANDER
(W Haggas) hot trainer 21% at the course, 25% with horses running 10f+, Tom Marquand rides
ALDOUS HUXLEY (J & T Gosden) beaten favourite last time out, hot trainer, hot jockey Frankie Dettori rides
NATURAL WORLD (C Appleby) hot trainer 29% national average, William Buick rides

3.55
ICE HOUSE
(W Haggas) hot trainer 21% at the course, Tom Marquand rides

4.30
GOSHEN
(G Moore) beaten favourite last time out, on attractive mark, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Hector Crouch rides

NATIONAL AVERAGE

Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Goodwood show their national averages over the past 5 years.

Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the maths suggests a factual position, not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average the greater chance of success. 

For example, we look at the 2.45 William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100) 7f.

There are 9 runners trained by 9 trainers. Without looking at the form of the horses we note the national averages of those 9 trainers in descending order:

  • William Haggas 22%
  • Charles Hills 15%
  • C & M Johnston 15%
  • Stuart Williams 12%
  • Eve Johnson-Houghton 11%
  • Heather Main 11%
  • Tom Ward 10%
  • Patrick Chamings 8%
  • Michael Attwater 5%

These variables and veracity are generally underused and not reported. On a personal note, our next step is to consider/engage current form, knowing the top 3 trainers have their horses in form we would not consider any of the other 6 trainers unless there was significant perceived value!

JASON WEAVER on GOODWOOD

Goodwood’s stewards are surely among the busiest in Britain, as it’s tricky to ride and it’s easy to run into traffic problems, especially on the round course. The bottom turn claims its share of victims, because the ground there runs away from you, while the bend into the home straight is very sharp. You get congestion on the dogleg, too, as normally a fair few are still in contention at that point. On the sprint course, the quickest way home is in a straight line, which means the middle is usually a good spot.

Paul Moon The Racing Horse

Featured Image: Janine Forbes / Goodwood Horseracing CourseWikimedia

1 thought on “Goodwood Racecourse Template (Friday 20 May 2022)”

  1. brill info thx,if poss a better breakdown better ie ow many times jock,trainer,owners won particular races and the jock/trainer combo for race

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