July 30, 2021

Goodwood Racecourse Template – (Friday 30 July 2021)

WHAT are RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?

The Racecourse Template is a simple yet pertinent road map revealing a betting landscape of an individual racecourse.

The road map unearths contextual and pertinent information, and these mathematical aggregates become a precursor in providing an authoritative betting canvas from which to work. The numbers have obvious value, representing something as big as an edge or as small as relevance. Though the information is readily available it is not presented in one place to give a landscape overview. 

For these to have considered or potential value or merit, the user must first accept that proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting! Every professional bettor/handicapper we have ever met or read about, uses a strategy, system or plan, which invariably includes the use of a structure/method containing pertinent data.

Each template is totally unique with few comparable features, their content will surprise even the most accomplished bettor. They highlight what is happening both currently and historically at the course, heavily suggesting chances of reoccurrence. The picture changes dramatically within racing codes, course to course, and from turf to all weather, and acknowledging them unquestionably assists those betting thought processes!

The Racecourse Template identifies areas that carry compelling figures whilst confirming where the biggest strike rates reside. More advanced bettors will be aware of their existence, less so the extent. Whether the figures contain perceived value is another matter, but we have identified a seam from which one can mine. The samples are sizeable (some more than others), but the numbers remain proven, robust, and there is no indication whatsoever they will suffer fatigue going forward, or fall victim to shelf life. With this easy to update mathematical substructure we process, refine and evaluate this information into opportunities to profit, or at the very least markedly improve the chances of winning.

Of course, there are no guarantees in horse racing betting but aligning with supporting aggregates must make us more savvy, placing us in a better starting position than if we ignored them. Whilst we readily accept each race is a completely separate entity, it is not a contradiction to insist they are still governed by those proven mathematical laws.

While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty. You can, for example, never foretell what any one man will be up to, but you can say with precision what an average number will be up to. Individuals vary, but percentages remain constant. So says the statistician – Arthur Conan Doyle.

The Racing Horse offers their powerful Goodwood Racecourse Template for Friday 30 July 2021 where they have all the PERTINENT numbers. 

The going is now soft, good to soft in places.

Pertinence

1.50: SEINESATIONAL (Dr R NEWLAND) stable switch, formerly with W Knight
1.50: THE GRAND VISIR (I Williams) trainer has won 2 of last 10 runnings, William Buick is 43% at the course this year

2.25: EL DRAMA (R Varian) Drops from Group 1 to Group 3
2.25: BAEED (W Haggas) Jim Crowley is 37% on winning favourites

3.00: PATH OF THUNDER (C Appleby) trainer is 27% with horses 7f to 10f, William Buick is 43% at the course this year
3.00: EPIC ENDEAVOUR (Muir & Grassick) beaten favourite last time out, cheek pieces
3.00: SHELIR (D O'Meara) beaten favourite last time out
3.00: ESCOBAR (D O'Meara) drops from Group 2 to Class 2

3.35: BATTAASH (C Hills) beaten favourite last time out. Trainer has won 4 of the last 10 runnings
3.35: KEEP BUSY (J J Quinn) beaten favourite last time out
3.35: DRAGON SYMBOL (A Watson) beaten favourite last time out
3.35: SUESA (F Rohaut) beaten favourite last time out

4.10: EUCHEN GLEN (J Goldie) longest traveller 464 miles
4.10: MOGUL (A P O'Brien) drops from Group 1 to Group 3

4.45: ROBJON (R Hannon) beaten favourite last time out
4.45: JADHLAAN (M Johnston) drops from Group 2 to Class 2
4.45: MAYBURY (W Jarvis) trainer shows profit of £32.88 to £1 when one runner at meeting, William Buick is 43% at the course this year 

5.20: MICKYDEE (R Hannon) beaten favourite last time out
5.20: STATE OF BLISS (M Johnston) beaten favourite last time out
5.20: CHAMPAGNE PIAFF (G L Moore) drops from Group 3 to Class 3

The story so far…

Two winning favourites on day one, two winning favourites on days and two more today makes it 5-22 for 23% so way below the expected average. We can expect a little better on Friday and Saturday.

Note, our top 2 trainers Charlie Appleby (4) and Team Gosden (2) have only raced 6 horses on the track so far this week. Mark Johnston (19) and Richard Hannon (15) have raced 34, what does that tell you?

Of the jockeys, we were certain William Buick was the man to follow this week despite not having the rides from Godolphin. He has now scored 5 winners from just 9 rides for 56%. This year on the course he shows 9-21 for 43% and a level stake profit of +22.03. He has one or two nice rides tomorrow.

National Average

Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Goodwood show their national averages over the past 5 years. Comparing current or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position, not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.

Jason Weaver on Goodwood

Goodwood’s stewards are surely among the busiest in Britain, as it’s tricky to ride and it’s easy to run into traffic problems, especially on the round course. The bottom turn claims its share of victims, because the ground there runs away from you, while the bend into the home straight is very sharp. You get congestion on the dogleg, too, as normally a fair few are still in contention at that point. On the sprint course, the quickest way home is in a straight line, which means the middle is usually a good spot.


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Steve Carter

Steve Carter is the Associate Editor of On Course Profits magazine. He has relied on his betting skills and knowledge for his income for the past 15+ years. He specialises in horse racing and football betting & trading and knows what it takes to make a living from betting. He is always looking for new angles for himself and On Course Profits readers.

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