The final part of my review of the horseracebase site.
In part one I gave you a flavour of some of the basics of the site that I use in a daily basis such as the race cards and excellent stat attack feature.
In part 2, I highlighted how you can use tools like Hot & Cold Races.
How you can profile a horse through the site and follow the form of big races.
This month I am going to show you how you can build systems in HRB.
As with the previous articles, I will do it through a tutorial format giving examples from the site on the way.
Bear in mind, it’s been written with the ‘newbie’ in mind but even more experienced users will hopefully find it helpful.
HRB System Building
The system builder tool is the most powerful versatile area of horseracebase website and I have about 50 systems set up in there. Here are just a few examples:
The good thing is that any system qualifiers for the days racing are presented in the daily qualifiers in this area of the site.
It’s an immensely powerful, short cutting tool to look at horses that I’m interested in for that day’s racing.
Do Systems Work?
There are many systems that do work. These can be simple systems based on a unique stat. For example, back Sir Michael Stoute handicappers on their seasonal return.
That’s a very simple system. Sir Michael has a 25%-win strike rate with such runners since the start of 2016. And, if you had backed all his handicap runners having their first run of the season. You would have made a profit of £41.53 to a £1 level stake and a £64.17 to Betfair SP.
All successful horse racing systems share the following:
- They must be logical.
- They should be uncomplicated and simple.
Many punters like to back favourites because they have the best chance of winning a race.
Looking at the fate of the clear favourite on the flat since the start of 2016.
And we can see Clear favourites have won 34% of all flat race in the period under research.
However, if you had backed them all you would have made a substantial loss. Now this clearly isn’t a profitable system but with further research you can make it profitable.
Let’s add a logical filter and look at trainers’ record with clear favourites. Here are the leading trainers (with a 100+ qualifiers).
Aidan O’Brien has had the most winning favourites.
We can break those winning favourites by say track. To get a decent sample I have looked at those racecourses where he had 10 or more qualifiers.
You can quickly see three courses stand out: Chester, Galway, and Goodwood.
With all three tracks providing backers with very high win strike rates.
Granted not many qualifiers but they are performing 36% better than market expectations and have provided a decent profit.
You could look at his record with clear favourites in handicap & non-handicap races:
Or you can break them down by age:
Going back to the trainer table. There were only two trainers whose clear favourite had been profitable to back blind: Joseph O’Brien and Clive Cox.
As with Aidan you can look at Joseph O’Brien’s runners by track:
Or by handicap or non-handicap races.
His handicap favourites are worth interrogating further.
Bearing in mind any filters that you use should be logical.
Digging his handicappers down by age.
Or even more interestingly by last time out placing:
Those qualifiers that had finished in the first three in their last race have produced a decent profit and are probably worth following.
Looking at Clive Cox’s qualifiers by age:
His juvenile favourites have performed 17% better than market expectations.
Digging further by jockey. Twenty-seven of those juvenile favourites were ridden by Adam Kirby.
The hypothesis I was testing was the fate of the clear favourites and how you can use logical and simple filters to build winning favourite systems that can be profitable.
Systems can be simple or more complicated.
Other systems can be a bit more complicated but they also work. One system that has stood the test of time is this one:
It’s a simple one, although does contain several filters. It’s based on beaten favourites in novice hurdles that finished close-up to the winner last time out (within five lengths) and that are sent off 10/1 and under on their next run.
Nothing fancy or any huge profits but a small return on investment nonetheless. You can of course dig further and look at how particular trainers perform with such qualifiers.
The Exp/Wins stat suggests we have a good sample size and the Chi score is indicating that we are looking at results that are not based on luck either.
It’s also an easy system to implement and of course if you add it to HRB your systems page will show up when there are any qualifiers.
Building A System in HRB
Now I’m going to take you through building a system from the start. In this case I’m going to look at trainers who do well in fillies only handicaps on the flat & all-weather.
However, I’m going interrogate the data further by looking at those trainers who have a better than average record with fillies that raced against the colts and geldings on their last run and are now running against their own sex
I have focused on those trainers who had 15 or more qualifiers in the period under research.
Now ordering by trainer win percentage:
I have selected a group of British & Irish trainers who have a good win strike rate with such runners.
Filtering further by odds SP. Those qualifiers going off 18/1 and bigger are:
If we ignore any qualifiers 18/1 & bigger, we get the following set of results:
Breaking those results down by year:
This group of trainers have shown they do well in fillies only handicaps, with runners now racing back against their own sex.
The strike rate and profitability are good to both industry SP and even better when backing to Betfair SP.
It’s not too difficult a system to do manually but finding any qualifiers is made so much easier by using HRB. Granted we are not talking about many bets during a year.
However, as part of a portfolio of profitable systems covering all types of racing during the year you can make a consistent profit. Some systems will underperform but others will keep the portfolio ticking along nicely.
Summary: The above system is a good example of a simple, but, logical system that you can build and save in HRB. I have just touched the surface as to what systems you can build within the database.
I hope this short series has given you an idea as to the awesome power of HRB that’s available at your fingertips.
Give yourself a chance to improve your punting and take advantage of a 3-day free trial of the service and you can do so here
During that time, you'll be free to use all the functionality of the site without constraint. You can create your own systems like I have and you can in-depth analysis every horse race run in UK & Ireland.
I can’t recommend HRB highly enough. It really is the business, and tremendous value in the process.
Until next time