Starting off a New Year with a new betting plan will be something many of us will be looking to achieve in the early part of the New Year, but as we know, the weather in the UK can be as ever unpredictable.
To that end we have decided that for the first 3 months of the year, here at the Acorns corner, we will concentrate on the All Weather tracks to see if we can find any trainers who have escaped the radar and see if there are any consistent performances from one or two alternative yards.
As is often the case we will use horseracebase.com as our starting point for our investigations and we will look to take a minimum number of past bets of 10 over the period in question and we will look to find those trainers who may be able to offer us some each way value.
We will start with the UK and we will be looking at Handicap races only.
As we are looking for each way angles, we have sorted the above data based on the place strike rate.
A cursory glance may reflect returns of little significance, but it is the place percentage we are interested in and anything over 50% peaks our attention. A number of trainers show some good place performances on the All Weather during January.
Six of the above trainers have caught our attention.
If you had backed the Handicap runners from these stables on the All Weather during January in the past 3 years would have made 47.38 points profit backing to win only.
Had you been backing each way you would have cleared a shade over 100 points over the 3 year period.
Pocketing around 30 points profit for the month sounds enticing to us.
And those profits in the main came from just 3 AW tracks, Kempton Lingfield and Newcastle.
By concentrating on just these 3 All Weather tracks we reduce our number of qualifying bets by 25 but only reduce our EW profit by just less than 6 points.
You can obviously pay this either way, win only betting or each way, but for us we will go each way.
System 66: Back Each Way the Handicap runners from the above trainers when running on the All Weather at Kempton, Lingfield or Newcastle during the month of January.
N.B. If you look for Paul Cole on the Racing Post website note that his runners are now shown as Paul and Oliver Cole as he is now training on a dual licence alongside his son.
What about over the water in Ireland?
Dundalk is where the All Weather racing takes place, and if we apply the same initial criteria the trainers table looks like this.
Interestingly we don’t see such a significant range of high value place percentages and Ireland doesn’t offer the same level of success as the UK.
However, when we dig a little deeper, we have found 3 trainers who when combined offered up a chance of some profits at Dundalk.
And again, the profits come from the Handicaps.
2019 brought 22.28 points profit when backing each way.
2020 brought 20.00 points profit when backing each way.
System 65: Back Each Way the Handicap runners of from the above trainers when running at Dundalk during the month of January.
Combining these All Weather results would have seen average profits in the past 2 years of approx. 50 points for the month of January. As we have said on many an occasion, we try and keep these Acorns as simple as possible. We’ll be following these two systems through January and will let you know how things proceed in the next issue.
Footnote: horseracebase.com assumes a 1 point stake on the Win, while Each Way returns are 1 point Win / 1 Point Place. So, the increased returns on each way backing offer similar Returns on Investment, but each way backing in the main should give a steadier and more manageable return.
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