The Racing Horse offers their Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Friday 10 March 2023.
There is a 6-race card containing 5 Handicaps and a Novice Race.
The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.
Winning Favourites (5 Years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 104-267 39% -50.88 37-114 32% -7.32 3yo 116-247 47% -23.55 131-455 29% -88.13 4yo+ 41-110 37% -20.81 233-715 33% -35.22 Total 261-624 42% -95.24 401-1284 31% -130.67 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E J & T Gosden (21%) 70-304 23% -56.05 +2% 1 A Balding (15%) 64-391 16% +77.96 +1% 2 R Varian (21%) 58-252 23% -14.73 +2% 0 C Appleby (29%) 52-161 32% -28.01 +3% 0 R Hannon (11%) 49-458 11% -129.18 +0% 0 HOT TRAINERS 08/02/2023 to 09/03/2023 +/- E W Haggas (23%) 5-13 39% +10.05 +16% 1 A Balding (15%) 9-27 33% -1.00 +18% 0 J & T Gosden (21%) 7- 22 32% +0.88 +11% 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R D Probert (11%) 85-781 11% -129.29 +0% 3 H Doyle (15%) 80-553 14% -81.28 -1% 0 O Murphy (20%) 71-359 20% -47.08 +0% 3 T Marquand (15%) 63-522 12% -102.03 -1% 0 J Doyle (19%) 61-277 22% +0.62 +3% 1 HOT JOCKEYS 08/02/2023 to 09/03/2023 +/- R B Loughnane (19%) 3-6 50% +6.55 +31% 3 J Doyle (19%) 5-21 24% +1.65 +5% 1 D Costello (8%) 5-23 22% +9.00 +14% 1 O Murphy (20%) 13-62 21% +10.05 +1% 3 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 88-317 28% -55.36 +2% 1 Hamdan Maktoum (22%) 31-116 27% +67.81 +5% 0 King Power (14%) 23-131 18% -32.10 +4% 1 Shadwell Est (24%) 14-50 28% +10.49 +4% 0 Ahmed Maktoum (25%) 13-56 23% -11.71 -2% 0 FIXTURES Friday 10 March 2023 Wednesday 15 March 2023 Wednesday 29 March 2023 Saturday 1 April 2023
FAVOURITES: At Kempton we acknowledge then absorb the huge sample size which includes a 11% differential between winning non-handicap favourites and handicap favourites (42% v 31%).
Over the past 5 years winning favourites show 662-1908 for 34.70% and a big level stake loss of -226.91 to SP.
Best strike rates are in 3yo favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 47%, whilst the worst is 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring 29%.
TRAINERS: Team Gosden are the top trainers at the course. Please note we have amalgamated the results of J Gosden and J & T Gosden over the past 5 years at this track.
Strange that since Thady got his promotion Team Gosden's national average has gone from 25% to 21%. The 4% figure is more than significant, given they do not have increased numbers, one imagines if the operation were aiming for more quality the strike rate would go up and not down.
We are clearly missing something, but assume Thady does bring something to the operation though as of yet there is no evidence!
JOCKEYS: We have 3 hot jockeys with rides. Oisin Murphy (20%) has 3 rides and so does new sensation Billy Loughnane (19%).
Interesting that James Doyle (23%) has just one ride for Godolphin, there must be a winner or two from this trio! David Probert (11%) is the top jockey at Kempton and he has 3 rides also.
OWNERS: Acquainting ourselves with the entries of the top owners at the track have always been a regular source of winners.
Godolphin (25%) run MR INSPIRATION 8.00 who is a 4yo Dubawi colt to be ridden by James Doyle and his only ride of the evening. King Power (14%) have a single runner also in TEUMESSIAS FOX in the same race.
BY THE WAY: Billy Loughnane's (19%) last 6 rides (14 days) show 122116. The start of his career has been incredible and he scores 32-164 for 20% (+10.95). He had no rides in February but his 2023 numbers to date show:
March: 3-6 for 50% (+6.54) January: 23-98 for 23% (+13.42) Total: 28-103 for 28% (+19.96)
He rides IN THE GIVING 7.30 for W Haggas, HAKU 8.00 & SWISS ROLE 8.30 for Mark Loughnane. Another winner beckons.
Pertinence
6.00
JUPITER (M Appleby) form figures of 317212 for in form trainer, Liam Wright rides.
STOCKPYLE (Muir & Grassick) trainer shows +£47.35 when one runner at a meeting, Owen Lewis rides.
SATIN SNAKE (A Keatley) races off same mark when 2nd at Newcastle last time out, Sam Fielden rides.
6.30
GIANT (R Spencer) pushed out to win at Chelmsford second time, Oisin Murphy rides.
MCCLEAN HOUSE (A Balding) C&D winner, David Probert rides.
ATHENE'S KISS (A Watson) drops from Class 3 to Class 5, Luke Morris rides.
7.00
HIGH COURT JUDGE (H Spiller) won last time out, Ross Coakley rides
VICTORY HOUSE (C Fellowes) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 4 to Class 6, Mikkel Mortensen rides.
7.30
IN THE GIVING (W Haggas) formerly with J Stack, red-hot trainer shows profit of +£13.88 with horses after a break, jockey Billy Loughnane rides.
MISS MOONSHINE (R Millman) C&D winner, in form 2112, Oliver Searle (7) rides.
8.00
MR INSPIRATION (J & T Gosden) owned by Godolphin (25%) and trainer in red-hot form, red-hot James Doyle rides and 22% at the track, 38% on favourites and 35% when one ride at a meeting.
DEMBE (B Johnson) beaten favourite last time out, Danny Muscutt rides.
DUBAI LEADER (C Johnston) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Joe Fanning rides.
8.30
DREAMS DELIVERED (M Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, Oisin Murphy rides.
MADRINHO (A Carroll) weighted to win 64 > 57, can be ungenuine, visor back on, Dougie Costello rides.
The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics.
Jason Weaver
From Paul Moon of The Racing Horse