September 2, 2021

Kempton Racecourse Template (Friday 3 September 2021)

The Racing Horse offers their powerful Racecourse Template for Kempton for Friday 3 September 2021.

There is an interesting 7-race card which includes 4 Handicaps but 3 Novice races. 

The going is expected to be standard to slow.

COURSE – Kempton is a flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over five, nine and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, particularly over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is almost three furlongs, making for a more straightforward test. Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

NON-HANDICAP FAVOURITES – Kempton is a good course for winning favourites in non-handicaps, where they record a 45% strike rate. Best category is those 4yo+ in non-handicaps 47-102 for 46% (+4.06).

HANDICAP FAVOURITES – Over the past 5 years we have a huge sample for handicap favourites, they show 445-1448 for 31% (-123.40). Winning favourites in all six groups show 741-2105 for 35.20% so well above national figures albeit to a level stake loss to SP of (-155.43)

TRAINERS – Our top trainers are at the course tomorrow. Hot trainers include Hughie Morrison (3) Charlie Appleby (2) J & T Gosden (3) and they must have winners between them. Mark Johnston, who is the longest traveller runs 3, Michael Stoute 2, Roger Charlton 3 and Richard Hannon 4 are others in the frame.

JOCKEYS – Without doubt, the jockey of the night must be William Buick. He is in tremendous form and winning on all sorts and has another 7 great rides tomorrow. STOP AT A WINNER?

Hollie Doyle, James Doyle and Oisin Murphy ride the track well but all three go to Haydock instead.

OWNERS – Godolphin reign supreme at Kempton and have fantastic figures at the course. A combination of Charlie Appleby & Saeed bin Surror has recorded 72-246 for 29% over the past 5 years. Godolphin have 2 runners at the course tomorrow, both expected to go close.

Pertinence

5.45 – MAPLEWOOD (C Appleby) trainer shows profit of £35.56 with debutants, is 38% at Kempton and 62 of Oasis Dream progeny have won on debut. William Buick rides

6.15 – DEGREE (M Stoute) beaten favourite last time out. CAMERATA (S & E Crisford) trainer shows profit of £14.55 when one runner at meeting, William Buick rides

6.45 – ALTRAIF (J & T Gosden) beaten favourite last time out. AL JADDAF (C Appleby) trainer has won 2 of the last 5 runnings, is 38% at Kempton, William Buick rides. DREAM SHOW (C Hills) drops from Class 2 to Class 4

7.15 – JUMBLY (R Charlton) trainer shows profit of £26.28 with winning favourites. SIAMSA (R Hannon) trainer shows profit of £22.94 with horses running over shorter trip.

7.45 – LOCKDOWN LATCHICO (M & D Easterby) longest traveller 227 miles. MICKS DREAM (R Teal) trainer shows profit of £65.66 with one runner at meeting

8.15 – GWENHWYVAR (H Morrison) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 3 to Class 5. COUPE DE CHAMPAGNE (M Johnston) weighted to win 77 > 74

8.45 – BYRON HILL (C Fellowes) William Buick is 38% on winning favourites and 24% at the track. AL KOUT (H Main) trainer shows profit of £134.56 when one runner at the meeting.

National Average

Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Chelmsford show their national averages over the past 5 years.

Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position and not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.

Jason Weaver on Kempton

The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics.”

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse


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