Lingfield Racecourse Template – Friday 31 December 2021

The Racing Horse offers their LINGFIELD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Friday 31 December 2021.

There is an 8-race card containing 7 handicaps and 1 novice race.

The going is expected to be standard.

Winning favourites (5 years)
Non-handicap                      Handicap
2yo:	 64-160 for 40%	-12.84	  15-49	   for 31%   (-5.60)
3yo:	143-308	for 46%	-21.43	  146-468  for 31%  (-61.49)
4yo+:	 86-170	for 51%	+10.42	  285-902  for 32%  (-75.26)
Total:	293-638	for 46%	-23.86	  446-1419 for 31% (-142.35)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at LINGFIELD for current year        +/-   E 
Mark Johnston (15%)   13-77 for 17%  (-6.48)        +2%   1
Archie Watson (18%)   12-52 for 23%  (-6.01)        +5%   2
Stuart Williams (12%) 11-44 for 25% (+10.60)       +13%   1
Gary Moore (14%)      11-65 for 17%  (+3.36)        +3%   0
Roger Varian (20%)    10-31 for 32%  (-8.91)       +12%   0

TOP 5 TRAINERS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years        +/-   E
Mark Johnston (15%)  73-356 for 21% (+11.60)        +6%   1
Archie Watson (18%)  65-305 for 21% (-15.08)        +3%   2
Richard Hannon (12%) 64-408 for 16% (-23.83)        +4%   0
John Gosden (24%)    52-193 for 27%  (-4.77)        +3%   0
Gary Moore (14%)     38-311 for 12% (-46.68)        -2%   0

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at LINGFIELD for current year         +/-   R 
Adam Kirby (15%)	26-106 for 25%  (+24.34)   +10%   0
Richard Kingscote (14%) 21-102 for 21%   (-4.01)    +7%   2
David Probert (11%)	21-129 for 16% (+138.62)    +5%   4
Hollie Doyle (13%)	21-147 for 14%  (-30.15)    +1%   0
Luke Morris (10%)	18-194 for  9%  (-24.57)    -1%   4

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years         +/-   R
Adam Kirby (15%)    99-583 for 17% (-151.61)        +2%   0
Luke Morris (10%)   92-851 for 11% (-175.14)        +1%   4
Hollie Doyle (13%)  81-503 for 16%  (-21.94)        +3%   0
David Probert (11%) 73-563 for 13%  (+25.37)        +2%   4
Tom Marquand (13%)  73-475 for 15%  (+51.91)        +2%   0

TOP 5 OWNERS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (24%)            44-165 for 27% (-25.28)  +3%   0
Hamdan Al Maktoum (22%)    27-103 for 26%  (-4.59)  +4%   0
Sheikh bin A Maktoum (16%) 22-82  for 27% (+28.61) +11%   0
K Abdullah (23%)           17-52  for 33% (+10.14) +10%   0
J Dalmook Maktoum (19%)    14-52  for 27% (+43.62)  +8%   0
 
HOT TRAINERS 01/12/2021 to 30/12/2021               +/-   E  
S Hodgson (18%)    3-8  for 38% (+11.00)           +20%   2
S C Williams (12%) 5-24 for 21%  (-5.87)            +9%   1
J Scott (13%)      5-27 for 19%  (-3.00)            +6%   1

TRAINERS COLD LIST    E
L Carter (5%)    60   3  
J Bridger (6%)   53   1
M Attwater (6%)  48   3
M Johnston (15%) 32   1

HOT JOCKEYS 01/12/2021 to 30/12/2021                +/-   R
Richard Kingscote (14%) 12-37 for 32% (+16.80)     +18%   2
Marco Ghiani (15%)      13-66 for 20% (+47.33)      +5%   2
Laura Pearson (11%)      4-23 for 17% (+10.50)      +6%   2
Jason Watson (13%)      12-71 for 17%  (+6.00)      +4%   3
    
JOCKEYS COLD LIST            E
Elisha Whittington (6%) 57   1   
William Carson (7%)     42   1
Adam J McNamara (10%)   41   2

FIXTURES
Friday 31 December 2021
Monday 3 January 2021
Tuesday 4 January 2021
Friday 7 January 2021
Saturday 8 January 2021

(%): National Average  E: Entries  R: Rides

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Lingfield over the past 5 years show 739-2057 for 35.93% and a level stake loss of -166.21.

The strike rate is above the national average and this is because of the fabulous figures of winning favourites in non-handicaps 293-638 for 46% (-23.86). Best category is 4yos+ in non-handicaps 86-170 for 51% (+10.42) though from a bigger sample winning 3yo favourites show 143-308 for 46% (-21.43).

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

Winning favourites in handicaps score at just below the national average.

TRAINERS: Mark Johnston heads both the current year and 5-year leader boards, and we are conscious he makes a journey of 270 miles to Lingfield, he has just 1 entry this time and normally a natural starting point to the day's proceedings, but for his dire form.

Archie Watson (NA: 18%) has scored 23% at the course this current year, but December shows 1-17 for 6% and November 1-25 for 4% for a total of 2-42 for less than 5%. 

From our leader boards Stuart Williams is the only trainer with a runner.

HOT TRAINER: Simon Hodgson is our hot trainer with 3 of his last 3 runners winning at odds of 4/1, 8/1 and 4/1 since 15 December.

He has a couple of interesting runners that need a look…

TRAINER COLD LIST: Mark Johnston is currently 0-35 over a period of 33 days and there are not many times he has gone that long without a winner.

As the Flat season came to an end it is worth showing his miserable figures since October.

These figures are measured against a national average of 15% and 21% for his last 5-year numbers at Lingfield:

December 2021: 0-28  for  0%  (-28.00)
November 2021: 7-61  for 11%  (-12.93)
October 2021:  6-124 for  6%  (-90.42)
Total:        13-213 for  6% (-131.35)

JOCKEYS: Luke Morris and David Probert have 4 rides each but the jockey who catches the eye is Richard Kingscote who is on fire! He is currently 7-11 for 64% with winners priced 4/1, 13/2, 8/1, 10/11, 9/4, 4/1 and 7/2.

He has 2 rides tomorrow including C'EST NO MOUR 12.10. 

MARCO GHIANI continues in great form also, and as we go to post is 3-6 for 50% (has rides at Wolverhampton today).

Ghiani remains an untold story and one worth sharing with On Course Profits readers – how many are aware he has ridden 101 winner this year?

2021: 101-585 for 17% (+52.65)
2020:  19-204 for  9% (-64.70)
2019:  22-131 for 17% (+52.71)
2018:   0-11  for  0% (-11.00)

His total figures show an impressive 142-931 for 15% and a level stake profit of +29.64 to level stakes, an incredible return given where he is in his career. By the way, his figures are not built solely on the AW surfaces, he has recorded 69 AW winners but 73 on Turf. To this day his rides are not over bet and something TRH has exploited in the second half of this year.

JOCKEY COLD LIST: This particular cold list does not really assist our thought betting processes but they are a cold list nonetheless.

OWNERS: None of the top owners have entries for this fixture, so no clues here.

11.35
ALPHONSE LE GRANDE (E Dunlop) weighted to win 67 > 53, trainer currently showing 3-5 for 60%, unexposed at trip.
VAXHOLM (J S Moore) beaten favourite last time out, weighted to win 49 > 38

12.10
C'EST NO MOUR (S Hodgson) will soon be 9yo but proved better than ever when overcoming a pace bias to score over C&D 13 days ago. Hot trainer is 3-3 for 100% and ridden by hot jockey Richard Kingscote 7-11 for 64%
PROTECTED GUEST (G Margarson) weighted to win 86 > 83

12.40
LIHOU
(D Evans) C&D winner, 3lbs ease looks generous, Jim Crowley rides and 23% at Lingfield

1.15
IMPERIAL SANDS
(A Watson) gelded 15 October, then 2nd on first race back beaten just ½l, ready for PB. Trainer 21% at course and 23% this year, jockey on cold list

1.50
FOLLOW YOUR HEART (S Hodgson) hot trainer 3-3 for 100%, horse looks ahead of his mark
FIRMAMENT (D O'Meara) £328,183.71 in prize money, travels 259 miles, Jason Watson rides

2.25
ALLARMISTA
(M Johnston) travels 270 miles for top trainer at the track, RPR 86, drawn 8
IMPERIAL MOUNTAIN (J Quinn) only winner, RPR 85, drawn 9, Jason Hart rides

2.55
COME ON GIRL
(M Appleby) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, David Probert rides. This horse/combination won this race last year and well treated

3.25
KODI GOLD
(D Evans) Jim Crowley 23% at course, has 2 of his 3 rides for the trainer, first rides back from spell abroad
DUTUGAMUNU (L Carter) formerly with R Spencer
REAL ESTATE (M Attwater) C&D winner, weighted to win 73 > 57

Lingfield’s 1m 2f all-weather start is a tough one, very draw-dependent. The same is true of the 5f and 6f starts. I always think it’s a track that lends itself to riding in the ‘third wave’. In races over 1m, for example, the first wave will go with maybe 5f left, round the initial turn, while the second wave will kick into the home straight. The third wave – the George Baker wave – usually attacks at the 1f pole and often comes out best. You don’t want to be way out of your ground, but patience can pay – Jason Weaver

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.