Newbury Racecourse Template – (Friday 26 November 2021)

The Racing Horse offers their Newbury Racecourse Template for Friday 26 November 2021. 

There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be good to soft, good in places.

Newbury FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
Hurdle: 35-71  for 49% (+1.93)	18-66  for 27% (-11.33)
Chase:  17-28  for 61% (+3.93)	24-81  for 30%  (-3.59)
NHF:     6-26  for 23% (-8.83)	 0-0	
TOTAL:  58-125 for 46% (-2.97)	42-147 for 29% (-14.92)

Top 5 Trainers past 5 years                     +/-   E
N Henderson (24%): 49-202 for 24% (+15.88)      +0%   6
P Nicholls (24%):  29-121 for 24% (+38.23)      +0%   6
P Hobbs (16%):     18-102 for 18% (+16.79)      +2%   4
C Tizzard (13%):   13-108 for 12% (-45.54)      -1%   1
A King (15%):      10-143 for  7% (-87.34)      -7%   0

Top 5 Jockeys past 5 years                      +/-   R              
N de Boinville (22%): 32-133 for 24%  (+7.51)   +2%   5
H Cobden (21%):       25-112 for 22% (+12.97)   +1%   5
T Scudamore (13%):    14-69  for 20% (+32.08)   +7%   1
J O'Neill (16%):       9-54  for 17%  (+2.60)   +1%   0
S T-Davies (16%):      8-75  for 11% (-32.40)   -5%   3

Top 5 Owners past 5 years                       +/-   E                
J P McManus (12%):   15-79 for 19%  (-7.76)     +7%   2
A & A Potts (13%):    6-15 for 40% (+18.90)    +27%   0
Brocade Racing (16%): 5-12 for 42% (+13.62)    +26%   1
M C Denmark (20%):    4-6  for 67% (+13.37)    +47%   0
R K-Hughes (30%):     4-8  for 50%  (+5.70)    +20%   0

Hot Trainers                                    +/-   E
O Murphy (18%):    24-76  for 31.6% (+8.25)    +14%   1
D McCain (15%):    28-95  for 29.5% (+3.38)    +15%   1
P Nicholls (24%):  27-99  for 27.3% (+2.54)     +3%   6
N Henderson (24%): 13-57  for 22.8% (-3.00)     +5%   6
F O'Brien (18%):   21-104 for 20.2% (-0.50)     +2%   2

Cold List Trainers     E
M Sheppard (9%):  27   1
A Martin (10%):   24   1
A Hales (12%):    17   1
C Longsdon (11%): 16   1
D Pipe (13%):     11   2

Hot Jockeys                                     +/-   R
B Frost (17%):        12-36  for 33.3% (-2.00) +16%   1
N de Boinville (22%): 12-43  for 27.9% (-1.25)  +8%   5
B Hughes (18%):       28-108 for 25.9% (+4.71) +12%   1
H Cobden (21%):	      12-61  for 19.7% (+0.29)  -1%   5

Cold Jockey List         R
J Moore (11%):      27   2
M Goldstein (8%):   21   1

FIXTURES
Friday 26 November 2021
Saturday 27 November 2021
Wednesday 15 December 2021

(%): National Average  E: Entries  R: Rides

WINNING FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Newbury over the past 5 years show 100-272 for 36.74 (-17.89) so a strike rate above average. Over obstacles in non-handicaps, winning favourites do particularly well albeit from a small sample showing 52-99 for 53% and a level stake profit of +5.86. Favourites perform below the national average in handicaps.

LEADING COURSE TRAINERS: Newbury is all about Nicky Henderson, he not only matches his national average at the track he manages to produce a level stake profit of +15.88 to SP. He has 6 entries tomorrow and certain to have a winner! Paul Nicholls is clearly second best at the course but has 6 entries also, and STAGE STAR 12.10 (PACAFI) could be top class. We expect both trainers to have winners!

HOT TRAINERS: Apart from Henderson and Nicholls, Olly Murphy and Donald McCain are in great form during the past month scoring 14% and 15% above their national averages respectively.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

LEADING COURSE JOCKEYS: Nico de Boinville and Harry Cobden are the two jockeys to follow at this course and invariably ride winners here given their stable form. It is hard for jockeys to ride winners here, later in the piece we talk about Harry Skelton, but note Sam Twiston-Davies is fifth on the leader board yet has ridden just 8 winners at the course in 5 years!

HOT JOCKEYS: Bryony Frost and Brian Hughes are hot jockeys and have 1 ride each.

LEADING COURSE OWNERS: J P McManus has 2 runners including JONBON 1.15 and PHOENIX WAY 2.25 so looks certain to have at least one winner, whilst Brocade Racing have BUMPY JOHNSON 12.10 racing for place money.

DID YOU KNOW: Harry Skelton is a 22% strike jockey but at Newbury he shows 7-70 for just 10% over the past 5 years. Trainer Dan Skelton is a 19% strike trainer and shows a miserable 9-107 for 8%. Given the configuration and fairness of the Newbury Racecourse this continues to surprise us. Not a targeted racecourse it seems, the stable has 2 runners tomorrow.

12.10

STAGE STAR (P Nicholls) PACAFI (Owners Group) – rated highly and big things expected, leading trainer, hot trainer, Harry Cobden 22% rides. Trainer won this race with Bravemansgame last year.
KINCARDINE (N Henderson) leading trainer, hot trainer, won 3 of the last 7 runnings.

12.40

PIC D'ORPHY (P Nicholls) hot trainer, 25% with chasers up to 2m3f, won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Harry Cobden 22% rides.

1.15

JONBON (N Henderson) leading trainer, hot trainer, won 4 of the last 10 runnings, Aidan Coleman 43% on hurdling favourites.
GOOD RISK AT ALL (S Thomas) beaten favourite last time out, Sam Twiston-Davies rides.

1.50

BOOTHILL (H Fry) beaten favourite last time out, Sam Twiston-Davies rides.
MISTER COFFEY (N Henderson) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Grade 3 to Class 3, leading trainer, hot trainer. Nico de Boinville 24% rides.
ERITAGE (P Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out, hot trainer, Harry Cobden rides.

2.25

AMOUR DE NUIT (P Nicholls) drops from Grade 3 to Class 2, hot trainer 25% with chasers up to 2m3f, Bryony Frost rides.
FANION D'ESTRUVAL (V Williams) drops from Grade 2 to Class 2.
PHOENIX WAY (H Fry) drops from Grade 1 to Class 2, Aidan Coleman rides.

3.00

PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) beaten favourite last time out, first time blinkers, Aidan Coleman 43% on hurdling favourites.
LISNAGAR OSCAR (R Curtis) trainer shows profit of £13.98 when one runner at meeting (hurdles).

3.35

POLISH (F O'Brien) beaten favourite last time out.
SLATE HOUSE (C Tizzard) drops from Grade 2 to Class 2.
THE COB (B Pauling) drops from Grade 1 to Class 2, David Bass rides.

NEWBURY RACECOURSE – Mick Fitzgerald

It’s among the fairest courses in the country and you get few hard-luck stories. There’s plenty of time during a race, with two very long straights and two sweeping bends, and you don’t often get too much shimmying or jockeying for position. If you’ve got the right horse, everything seems to happen nice and smoothly. The fences are very fair and, although the cross-fence used to claim a lot of victims, it’s nowhere near as bad now. Newbury is a great place for a novice and, unlike Cheltenham say, where the fences can be tricky for inexperienced horses, it’s really straightforward.

Paul Moon The Racing Horse

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