August 5, 2021

Newmarket Racecourse Template (Friday 6 August 2021)

The Racing Horse offers their Newmarket July Racecourse Template for Friday 6 August 2021. The going is expected to be good to firm. 

BEST CATEGORY FAVOURITE: Juveniles (2yo & 3yo) favourites in non-handicaps fare best at this course showing 82-194 for 42.27% (-5.87 to SP). Good housekeeping could easily turn this small loss into a profit. 

WORST CATEGORY FAVOURITE: Winning favourites in handicaps at this course generally reflect the national average and a significant loss to match.

TRAINERS: No trainer can compare with Charlie Appleby as far as the numbers are concerned. He has the most superior national average of all UK trainers at 28%, no other trainer can threaten that average (January 2017 to December 2021). Check out his 5-year record at both courses:

We need to understand/appreciate the figures include multiple entries, apprentice ridden, badly drawn, and heavy ground losers so represent a worst-case scenario yet the trainer still records something bigger than his national average. The numbers are incredible and not generally covered in the media.

If one wanted to improve his strike rate, we look at the numbers of his 2yos running on this undulating racecourse. They perform at almost 4% above his national average. Backing horses to beat those of Appleby cannot be conducive to profit. The trainer runs just one on Friday and five on Saturday. Saeed bin Suroor runs three tomorrow but no obvious sign of a winner.

JOCKEYS: As a consequence of the Appleby brilliance, jockeys James Doyle and William Buick are the main beneficiaries.

OWNERS: Godolphin record more winners than the second, third, fourth and fifth best added together. Opposing Godolphin runners at any of the Newmarket courses is not recommended unless one has a good reason for doing so!

Pertinence

5.05:

Rum Cocktail (C Cox) beaten favourite last time out.

Notable(T Dascombe) second longest traveller 207 miles. Trainer shows profit of £75.82 when one runner at meeting.

2yo winning favourites in non-handicaps: 54-129 for 42% (+1.55)

5.38

  • Radio Caroline (M Channon) races towards rear, trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings. William Buick 38% on winning favourites.
  • All In Aladdin (O Pears) first time cheekpieces.

6.08

Hafit (C Appleby) trainer 32% with 2yos at course. William Buick 22% rides

Viadelamore (J Ferguson) 81 Invincible Spirit progeny winners on debut

2yo winning favourites in non-handicaps: 54-129 for 42% (+1.55)

6.38

  • Volcanic Sky (Saeed bin Suroor) top earner £136,089.29 has questions to answer. Trainer runs two in this race
  • Zabeel Champion (M Johnston) course winner, beaten favourite last time out, William Buick 22% rides

7.08

  • Princess Nadia (J & T Gosden) ridden by Hollie Doyle 38% combination (+31.25)
  • Brunera (H Palmer) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, wears hood

7.38

  • Abate (A Nicholls) C&D winner, won in the last 7 days. Trainer shows profit of £13.38 when one runner at meeting
  • Beyond Equal (W Kittow) longest traveller 219 miles.
  • Yimou (D Ivory) weighted to win 83 > 80, Hollie Doyle rides.

JASON WEAVER – NEWMARKET JULY RACECOURSE

The major difference between the Rowley Mile and the July Course is that, whereas the former is uphill all the way to the line, the latter levels off – almost falling away – after an initial climb. It’s a lovely track, every bit as nice for jockeys as it is for summer racegoers, but, when you’re riding, you have to be on weather-watch, as sometimes there’s a faster strip on the far side, near the hospitality marquees. The long straight means it’s a very fair course, with no pace bias, and it’s ideally suited to class horses”.

Paul Moon – The Racing Horse

Featured Image: Lost my bet… | Horse race Saarbruecken | Tobias Begemann | Flickr


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Steve Carter

Steve Carter is the Associate Editor of On Course Profits magazine. He has relied on his betting skills and knowledge for his income for the past 15+ years. He specialises in horse racing and football betting & trading and knows what it takes to make a living from betting. He is always looking for new angles for himself and On Course Profits readers.

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