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Newmarket Racecourse Template – (July Course) Saturday 25 June 2022

The Racing Horse offers their Newmarket Racecourse Template for Saturday 25 June 2022.

Of the 7-race card there are 3 Handicaps, a Maiden, 2 Listed Races and a Group 3. 

The going is expected to be good, good to firm in places.

NEWMARKET (JULY) FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo   48-109  44%   +1.40	6-18     33%    -4.99
3yo   23-53   43%   -8.61	69-213   32%   -34.31
4yo+   6-22   27%   -7.68	35-119   29%   -14.43
Total 77-184  42%  -14.90	110-350  31%   -53.73

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET (July) 2021          +/-   E
C Appleby (29%)   16-43  37%  (+3.26)         +8%   4
R Hannon (12%)     9-63  14% (+16.40)         +2%   1
W Haggas (22%)     7-30  23%  (+3.17)         +1%   0 
A Balding (15%)    6-29  21% (+14.82)         +6%   3
J & T Gosden (21%) 6-52  12% (-29.63)         -9%   3 

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years       +/-   E
C Appleby (29%):      43-155  28%   -9.32     -1%   4
R Hannon (12%):       35-258  14%  -35.42     +2%   1
J & T Gosden (21%):   39-188  21%  -20.03     -1%   3   
C & M Johnston (15%): 28-166  17%   -9.96     +2%   1 
S Bin Suroor (21%)    19-63   30%  +24.35     +9%   1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS NEWMARKET (July) 2021           +/-   R
J Doyle (20%)   17-74   23%    -4.21          +3%   3   
W Buick (21%)   10-42   24%   -15.30          +3%   7  
M Ghiani (15%)   9-24   38%   +11.49         +23%   0
T Marquand (14%) 7-35   20%   +12.59          +6%   0
O Murphy (19%)   7-36   19%   +10.85          +0%   0 

TOP JOCKEYS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years          +/-   R
J Doyle (20%)	41-201  20%   -43.69          +0%   3
W Buick (21%)	33-138  24%   -26.20          +3%   7
A Atzeni (16%)	23-118  19%    -0.89          +3%   0 
O Murphy (19%)	23-123  19%   +25.12          +0%   0
R Havlin (16%)	19-96   20%   -22.81          +4%   3

TOP 5 OWNERS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years         +/-   E
Godolphin (24%)     63-237  27%   -4.11       +3%   5
H Al Maktoum (21%)  20-97   21%   -1.00       +0%   0
Cheveley Park (17%) 13-51   25%   +2.62       +8%   0
Moh Al Maktoum (15%) 9-39   23%  +19.37       +8%   0
Al Shaqab (15%)      8-25   32%  +10.50      +17%   0

HOT TRAINERS 25/05/2022 to 24/06/2022         +/-   E
J & T Gosden (21%) 23-89   26%   +4.36        +5%   3
A King (15%)       10-42   24%   +0.75        +9%   1
G Boughey (18%)    17-73   23%   -9.49        +5%   3
R Varian (20%)     17-78   22%   -4.40        +2%   1

TRAINER COLD LIST  SAW   E
D M Simcock (13%)   18   1
D Loughnane (11%)   18   1
A Balding (15%)     17   3
M Stoute (20%)      11   1

HOT JOCKEYS 25/05/2022 to 24/06/2022          +/-   R
W Buick (21%)  32-131  24%    -4.44           +3%   7
J Doyle (20%)  19-85   22%   +41.05           +2%   3
R Havlin (16%) 11-52   21%   -11.06           +5%   3

JOCKEY COLD LIST  SAW   R
J Crowley (19%)    22   4
C Shepherd (11%)   17   4

Fixtures:
Saturday 25 June 2022
Thursday 7 July 2022
Friday 8 July 2022
Saturday 9 July 2022

Friday's results not included...

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Newmarket (July) show 187-534 for 35.02% (-68.63) so above the national average. Best strike rate category is 2yo winning favourites in non-handicaps showing 48-109 for 44% and a level stake profit of +1.40. Worst category is 4yo+ in handicaps with 35-119 for 29% (-14.43).

TRAINERS: Charlie Appleby is unique when it comes to the Newmarket Racecourses. He has a national average of 29% and somehow manages to match that huge figure at the headquarters of racing!

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine
Rowley: 70-247 for 28% (+6.28)
July:   43-155 for 28% (-9.32)
Total: 113-402 for 28% (-3.04)

His figures above show it is possible to back his horses blind at these two courses and break even. With just a modicum of filtration a profit is enabled. Worth reminding ourselves these figures are net after multiple entries, irrespective of jockey bookings and draw bias. Appleby clearly knows what horses are suited to this course better than any other and yes, this includes the great John Gosden! Appleby has four runners on Saturday including FAIRY CROSS 1.00, REBEL'S ROMANCE & KEMARI 2.40 and ART DU VA 3.15.

Stop at a winner?

John Gosden: Mathematics, context and relevance is everything in racing and we only show the figures of Team Gosden to show the dominance/skill/brilliance of Appleby.

Rowley: 52-281 for 19% (-46.83)
July:   39-188 for 21% (-20.03)
Total:  91-469 for 19% (-67.84)

There are no other trainers in the UK who can compare to Charlie Appleby and John Gosden, so when horses are entered for a Newmarket Race our first task is to check out their runners a couple of days before racing. Gosden has 3 runners in STOWELL 2.40, SUNRAY MAJOR 3.15 & MIMIKYU 3.50

JOCKEYS: William Buick not only takes advantage of the ammunition provided by Appleby, but rides the two courses beautifully. His national average is 21% yet rides the Rowley course at 82-309 for 27% (+6.39), and the July course at 33-138 for 24% (-26.20). 

OWNERS: Only Godolphin from our leader board have 5 runners at the course on Saturday, they are FAIRY CROSS 1.00, KEMARI & REBEL'S ROMANCE 2.40, ART DU VAL 3.15 & WARM SMILE 4.15.

Godolphin reign supreme at Newmarket! They have a national average of 24% yet score 27% at the course, and this strike rate includes multiple runners in the same race, and those from different trainers. The suggestion is if we are not backing a fancied Godolphin runner, we are not backing against them!

1.00
FAIRY CROSS (C Appleby) trainer 29% NA and 28% at course, William Buick rides and 23% at course and 39% on favourites
DARK MAJESTY (C & M Johnston) Dark Angel progeny have won 73 on flat debut, Jack Mitchell rides

1.30
ASHKY (H & R Charlton) handicapper may have taken a chance with this filly, William Buick rides and 23% at course and 39% on favourites

2.05
MINNETONKA (R Hannon) trainer has won 2 of the past 10 runnings, Jim Crowley rides
ABSOLUTELYFLAWLESS (D Loughnane) beaten favourite last time out, Laura Pearson rides
YOUR SPIRIT (D O'Meara) beaten favourite last time out, Jack Mitchell rides

2.40
KEMARI (C Appleby) trainer 29% NA and 28% at course, James Doyle rides
REBEL'S ROMANCE (C Appleby) trainer 29% NA and 28% at course, William Buick rides and 23% at course and 39% on favourites

3.15
SUNRAY MAJOR (J & T Gosden) headgear applied, James Doyle replaces Frankie Dettori
ART DU VAL (C Appleby) trainer 29% NA and 28% at course, William Buick rides

3.50
MIMIKYU (J & T Gosden) trainer 21% with horses running over 10f+ Rob Havlin rides

4.25
ARYAAH (G Boughey) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides
WARM SMILE (Saeed bin Suroor) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 22% with handicap debutants, Daniel Tudhope rides

The major difference between the Rowley Mile and the July Course is that, whereas the former is uphill all the way to the line, the latter levels off – almost falling away – after an initial climb. It’s a lovely track, every bit as nice for jockeys as it is for summer racegoers, but, when you’re riding, you have to be on weather-watch, as sometimes there’s a faster strip on the far side, near the hospitality marquees. The long straight means it’s a very fair course, with no pace bias, and it’s ideally suited to class horses.

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse

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