Newmarket Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Newmarket Racecourse Template for Friday 29 September 2023.
There is an 8-race card including 2 Groups 2s, a Group 3, 2 Listed Races, a Handicap and 2 Maiden Races.
The going is expected to be good to firm.
NEWMARKET (ROWLEY) FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 56-161 35% -23.08 5-25 20% -12.92
3yo 53-132 40% -12.58 46-144 32% +7.68
4yo+ 14-51 27% -14.77 46-137 34% -2.37
TOTAL 123-344 36% -50.43 97-306 32% -7.62
TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET 5 years +/- E
C Appleby (29%) 84-281 30% +40.65 +1% 5
J & T Gosden (21%) 45-257 18% -77.58 -3% 9
R Varian (20%) 33-223 15% -48.99 -5% 6
A Balding (15%) 32-240 13% +8.20 -2% 3
W Haggas (23%) 26-221 12% -67.87 -11% 5
HOT TRAINERS 30/08/2023 to 28/09/2023 +/- E
C Appleby (29%) 14-38 37% +8.76 +8% 5
P Chapple-Hyam (12%) 4-16 25% +2.00 +13% 1
C Fellowes (13%) 5-21 24% +3.33 +11% 1
A P O'Brien (13%) 19-87 22% -16.76 +9% 3
K R Burke (13%) 21-99 21% +30.15 +8% 3
COLD LIST TRAINERS SAW E
P Sly (13%) 28 144 days 1
H Main (11%) 24 26 days 1
TOP JOCKEYS NEWMARKET 5 years +/- R
W Buick (23%) 99-334 30% +49.26 +7% 7
O Murphy (19%) 36-213 17% +5.12 -2% 7
J Crowley (20%) 26-169 15% +3.91 -5% 4
R Moore (18%) 26-308 8% -158.40 -10% 7
F Dettori (23%) 24-130 18% -39.62 -5% 4
HOT JOCKEYS 30/08/2023 to 28/09/2023 +/- R
J Mitchell (17%) 15-51 29% -8.24 +12% 2
J Doyle (19%) 15-55 27% -3.04 +8% 4
W Buick (23%) 29-117 25% -3.95 +2% 7
P Dobbs (12%) 5-23 22% -1.27 +10% 1
COLD LIST JOCKEY SAW R
C Howarth (9%) 39 24 days 1
TOP 5 OWNERS NEWMARKET 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (24%) 99-377 26% +68.93 +2% 5
Obaid Maktoum (20%) 15-80 19% +8.88 -1% 1
Ham Maktoum (22%) 15-96 16% -0.54 -6% 0
Shadwell Est (24%) 13-71 18% -19.98 -6% 3
King Power (13%) 13-79 16% -9.88 +3% 0
COURSE: The Cesarewitch course is two and a half miles in extent, and despite the run-in of ten furlongs, in big fields those drawn low are at a disadvantage. A wide, galloping track with an uphill finish that is ideal for the big, long-striding horse, except for the descent into the Dip where those types can become unbalanced. Ability to see out the trip thoroughly is essential, and those that commit for home too early can be caught out by the uphill run to the line.
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Newmarket Rowley Course show 220-650 for 33.85% (-58.5) over the past 5-years, so figures just above the national average. Best category are 3yos in non-handicaps showing 53-132 for 40% showing a loss of -12.50 to level stakes.
TRAINERS: Charlie Appleby (29%) has 5 entries whilst J & T Gosden (21%) has a huge entry of 9 runners, so huge involvement expected from these top 2 trainers.
Pam Sly (13%) has now gone 144 days since a winner.
JOCKEYS: Interesting that our top 6 jockeys all have rides at the Friday meeting and multiple winners beckon.
William Buick (23%) scores 30% at the Rowley course and rides both Newmarket courses better than any other. He has 7 rides and so does Oisin Murphy (19%). From these 14 rides we can expect multiple winners.
Ryan Moore (18%) is another with 7 rides but comes with a huge negative attached and one that is hard to explain! The jockey records 26-308 for a poor 8% (-158.41) over the past 5 years at this racecourse – how is that possible given the quality of his rides? Looking at comparable jockey numbers it is hard to find a jockey with worse statistics, could it be that Ryan does not ride this course well at all? Just saying…
There's more. Jim Crowley (20%), James Doyle (19%) and the great Frankie Dettori (23%) have 4 rides each, guaranteeing a special day in regards to personalities and their fabulous skill-sets! A day to savour!
OWNERS: Godolphin (24%) reign supreme at Newmarket with the last 5-years showing 99-377 for 26% and a level stake profit of +£68.93 to SP. They have 5 entries all trained by Charlie Appleby including SILVER LADY 1.50. VEIL OF SHADOWS 2.25, SYMBOL OF POWER 4.10, BROADWAY ACT 4.45 & NEW LONDON 5.20.
Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum (20%) has a single entry in NOVAKAI 2.25 trained by Karl Burke and to be ridden by Clifford Lee.
Shadwell Estate (24%) have 2 runners in ALSHINFARAH 3.00 & MUTASAABEQ 3.35 trained by Kevin Philippart De Foy and Charlie Hills respectively, but both ridden by Jim Crowley.
Pertinence
1.50
SILVER LADY (C Appleby 29%*) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, trainer 86-284 30% +43.13 at the course, William Buick rides 30% +48.74 at the course
QUEEN FOR YOU (J & T Gosden 21%) Won her debut in striking fashion at Ascot, useful filly since, cheekpieces on when excellent 2 of 10 in Atalanta Stakes at Sandown 27 days ago, headgear retained. Rob Havlin rides
COPPICE (J & T Gosden 21%) forget last run, saddle slipped. Landed Sandringham at Royal Ascot in June and far from disgraced when 5th in Falmouth following month. Frankie Dettori rides
2.25
VEIL OF SHADOWS (C Appleby 29%*) trainer 86-284 30% +43.13 at the course, William Buick rides 30% +48.74 at the course
RUNNING LION (J & T Gosden 21%) course winner, beaten favourite last time out, Oisin Murphy rides
AZAZAT (D K Weld 15%) beaten favourite last time out, Chris Hayes rides
3.00 (Favs: 35%)
SHUWARI (O Sangster 19%) seeking hat-trick, trainer 7-35 for 20% with 2yos this year, Oisin Murphy rides
YLANG YLANG (A P O'Brien 13*) beaten favourite last time out, Ryan Moore rides
CARLA'S WAY (S & E Crisford 20%) £350,000 breeze up buy, improver, James Doyle rides
3.35
MUTASAABEQ (C Hills 15%) record on Rowley Mile is almost impeccable (sole defeat form 5 starts on this course in 2021 2000 Guineas), small-field scenario is perfect (form figures in 7 runners or fewer 1111232411). Jim Crowley rides
EPICTETUS (J & T Gosden 21%) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 21% with horses 7f up to 10f, Frankie Dettori rides
4.10 (Favs: 35%)
SYMBOL OF POWER (C Appleby 29%*) 74 of Frankel's progeny have won on debut, trainer 86-284 30% +43.13 at the course, 26-87 for 30% with 2yos this year, William Buick rides 30% +48.74 at the course
ACCUMULATE (R Varian) trainer 16-85 for 19% with 2yo winners this year, Ryan Moore rides
MILETUS (C Hills) €140,000 yearling, Magna Grecia colt. Holds Group 1 entries, so market check advised. Kevin Stott rides
4.45 (Favs: 35%)
BROADWAY ACT (C Appleby 29%*) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 86-284 30% +43.13 at the course, 26-87 for 30% with 2yos this year, William Buick rides 30% +48.74 at the course
PSALM (A O Brien 13% *) 300,000gns yearling and Sea The Stars colt, holds Group entries. 89 Sea The Stars progeny have won on debut, Ryan Moore rides
PLACO (J & T Gosden) Starspangledbanner gelding made promising debut, sure to progress, Kieran Shoemark rides
5.20
NEW LONDON (C Appleby 29%*) Godolphin have won 3 of the last 4 runnings, trainer 86-284 30% +43.13 at the course, William Buick rides 30% +48.74 at the course
CANDLEFORD (W Haggas) Duke of Edinburgh winner at Royal Ascot 2022, proved better than ever scoring Listed a month ago. Backed that up with a good 2nd in Group 3 at since, claims in this company. Tom Marquand rides
5.55
BALTIMORE BOY (M Bell 12%) beaten favourite last time out, James Doyle rides
REAL GAIN (R Hughes 13%) beaten favourite last time out. Overcame widest draw when winning at Kempton on debut, followed up at Chelmsford on his return. After 9 weeks off, lost his unbeaten record but emerged with plenty of credit when 3rd at York on handicap/turf debut 19 days ago Finley Marsh rides
CRACK SHOT (E Walker) Much improved from debut when scoring at Nottingham, after respectable 5th at Goodwood on handicap debut, back on the up when doubling his tally at Newbury (1m) last month. Further progress expected. Tom Marquand rides
With the longest straight in Britain and just one turn to negotiate in distance races, this is a lovely course to ride. Surprisingly, though, there are one or two ridges, even before the run down into the Dip, and you need to ride them smoothly. The other thing a jockey has to remember is that it’s a long way up that finishing hill – you’ll see plenty caught in the closing stages. Because of the chalk base, it can ride very lively, and the wind direction is vital. Getting cover is so, so important when it’s in your face
– Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse