September 24, 2020

October Acorns

This time of year we normally turn our attentions to the start of the National Hunt season, but we thought given the ever changing events of COVID-19 we’d take a look at the All Weather.

There have been, over recent months, some significant priced winners popping up and we felt it may be of interest to see if there have been any fired out  on the All Weather since the relaunch of racing in general on 1st June 2020.

All data is based on trainers having had a minimum of 10 runners over the period in question.

Chelmsford City

The stand out trainer at Chelmsford City over recent months has been Jane Chapple-Hyam.

Had you backed her runners blindly at Chelmsford you would have found a 50% strike rate and turned a healthy profit to SP of 47 points to £1.00 level stakes.

Interestingly all of the wins were by different horses, rather than one serial course specialist.

But take a look at the place percentages.

Each Way betting would have offered 70.85 points to SP and 3 of the 5 winners were double priced runners at 10.00, 14.00 and 18.00.

No runners through September to date (15th), but it could pay to keep an eye on any runners she sends over the next few weeks.

System 63: Back Jane Chapple-Hyam’s runners at Chelmsford City All Weather Each Way through to the end of October.

Kempton

Finding a winner from the runners from the Mark Johnston stable is notoriously challenging despite their numbers, and in general, backing blindly would mean a quick walk to the poor house.

But, had you backed his runners on the All Weather at Kempton since the restart in June you would be quid’s in with a 35% strike rate and almost 60 points profit in the bank.

At the time of writing 29.33 points of that profit has come in the first 2 weeks in September with a 33/1 winner in Iffraaz…doh!

The 50% place rate may seem a tempting option to back each way but you would have added just a further 11 points to your total profits and so the risk outweighs the rewards in our opinion.

With the winners prices varying from 2.50JF through to the 34.00 shot we think that there may be a chance of sneaking another nice price along the way and so would suggest that we keep an eye on the Johnston runners at Kempton All Weather for the next few weeks.

System 64: Back Mark Johnston runners on the All Weather at Kempton on a WIN only basis through to the end of October.

Lingfield

Lingfield isn’t quite so clear cut as the previous 2 courses.

At first glance the Archie Watsons 5 winners from 15 selections and a place strike rate of 73.33% suggests welcome rewards for our hard earned money.

Sadly that’s not the case.

On a win only basis you would have just broken even and Each Way would have seen a small profit of a shade over 5 points based on the 11 placed selections (including winners).

But ALL 5 of those winners came in Non handicaps.

Still we wouldn’t have got very rich quick following those runners.

A couple of other trainers who offered up place potential are W R Muir (William Muir) and MDI Usher (Mark Usher).

The Muir stable couldn’t land a winner but in terms of Each Way profits offered up a small return but nothing to write home about.

The Usher stable on the other hand hit the home run in terms of Each Way betting, with 8 horses placed from 12 selections, and yielding a profit to SP of a touch over 27 points.

His runners were priced between 3.50 and 150.00, but none of the placed horses were priced greater than 25.00.

So keep an eye on his runners at Lingfield, and as long as they are not in the silly price bracket, you may do worse than to back these each way over the next few weeks.

System 65: Back MDI Usher’s runners Each Way when running on the All Weather at Lingfield through to the end of October.

Newcastle

Newcastle seems to be a course where there are no significant anomalies in terms of trainer performance.

The best win strike rate recently has been that of Hugo Palmer at 20% and a place strike rate of 60%, but profits are minimal.

Mick Appleby has had 2 double figure priced winners from 14 runners, and these have turned a nice profit of 32 points had you been on them.

But how many people would be blindly backing Appleby runners?

5 of the 6 placed selections interestingly though were running over the shorter distances of between 5 and 7f.

Backing the sprint runners over these distances Each Way would have seen you take home just over 47 points.

Who knows, with 2 of the 5 double priced runners (10.00,12.00,16.00,28.00,33.00) landing the spoils there may just be another waiting in the wings for a run out on the track over the coming weeks.

System 66: Back Mick Appleby runners Each Way at Newcastle when running over 5f-7f, through to the end of October.

Southwell

You know at the start of this exercise we mentioned that the data we are looking at is based on those trainers who have had at least 10 runners at the track…

Southwell All Weather has been shall we say side lined over the recent months while it has been favoured for its jump course (which was subsequently suspended following a series of horse deaths at the track), and recent Post COVID 2020 data is very limited.

So, on that basis, we’ll leave Southwell AW for another day.

Wolverhampton

A name which is not possible associated with the small track of Wolverhampton is Sir Michael Stoute.

5 winners from 12 runners (8 of which placed overall) probably isn’t a great surprise given the calibre of the runners we expect from the Stoute yard.

All of the runners were 3 year olds, and every one of his runners went off in single figure prices which is not a surprise, with his winners pricing up at no larger than 3.50.

Based on the above it would be difficult to find any real profit from the Stoute runners at Wolverhampton.

In fact, based on current data we’d struggle to put up any trainer above any other in terms of their chances to offer us a profit.

If we had to tie our flag to the mast we’d sit and wait to see if George Boughey drops in any runners.

A 12.75 points profit from 3 winners from 11 selections, but there have been a couple of runners each month.

Those 3 winners have been priced at 2.75JF, 8.00 and 10.00. So there is always a chance of a positive result.

System 67: Back George Boughey runners at Wolverhampton (Win Only) through to the end of October.

These are very strange times for the racing world, where short priced favourites are being overturned by their “rank outsider” counterparts.

It is going to take some time before racing returns to the days of yore, and there is a feeling that, for now, anything is possible.

We could be in with a chance of large profits, or we could find ourselves with an empty wallet.

Got an opinion? Share it in the comments below...


Related Posts

A Q and A with Gary Bradley of Always Back Winners

Q & A with Rory Delargy & David Massey of Racing Consultants

The Thrill of Owning A Racehorse

Research Corner

Steve Carter

Steve Carter is the Associate Editor of On Course Profits magazine. He has relied on his betting skills and knowledge for his income for the past 15+ years. He specialises in horse racing and football betting & trading and knows what it takes to make a living from betting. He is always looking for new angles for himself and On Course Profits readers.

Leave a Reply


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

{"email":"Email address invalid","url":"Website address invalid","required":"Required field missing"}