Hi All, for this month’s Research Corner piece, we are returning to a trainer based criteria as although there are many recent key factors such as the variable going and reduced field sizes, the mantra that trainers are creatures of habit still has valid claims.
We will consider the final month of the year during the most recent ten-year period and home in on the yards that have had at least 100 National Hunt runners during that period.
The following table details the stables in descending number of winners that have made a blind profit to Betfair SP over the review timeline.
We will next take a closer look at a selection of the above trainers to see if we can unearth a few potential gems from their runners during the final month of the calendar year.
The Actual versus Expected (A/E) is always a good starting point as anything above 1.00 is a positive so we will kick things off with Nicky Richards given hos A/E performance of 1.05 over the review period.
After taking over the reins at Greystoke in the heart of Cumbria the yard has achieved over 800 winners and £5 million in prize money.
Racing of course was in his DNA as the son of the legendary Gordon Richards, whose string of top class winners included Grand National heroes Lucius (1978) and Hallo Dandy (1984). He was already ill with cancer whenOne Man triumphed in the 1997 Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham and died not long afterwards, leaving Nicky to take over the reins.
If we drill down on the stats during the individual years for the month of December, we find: –
Overall, a decent record but not so much during the most recent trio of years.
What do we find by National Hunt race types?
The above seems to point us towards the Bumper runners and those over the bigger obstacles during December.
Last year didn’t go well but 7 of the 10 Decembers were showing positive gains.
If we now, consider this data set but by where the racetracks are based geographically, we find: –
The most positive performances coupled with a decent number of runners points us to the tracks based in the North East and North West of England.
The yard had runners during December in either Bumpers or Chases during the past decade at 5 tracks situated in the aforementioned locations and star of the show was Carlisle with 7 winners from 10 such runners!
If we convert the data into a micro method, we find the following: –
System 83: Back the runners trained by Nicky Richards during the month of December when they are competing in National Hunt Flat Races and Chases at tracks based in the North East and North West of England.
The historical data shows a profit would have been made with such an approach in 7 of the most recent 10 years with the biggest losing year being 2017 when both of the qualifiers lost but only just as both of them finished in second place.
Overall, the micro method achieved a cracking 71.43% placers so if the prices and place terms allow adding an extra point for the place element could be a wise choice.
For Gold and Platinium readers we dig into the performance of Gary Moore and Ben Pauling. You can read the rest of the article up upgrading to Gold or Platinum membership here.