At the time of writing we have just witnessed the 2020 running of the Epsom Derby and Oaks, and although the Fillies Classic went to the market leader, Love, who shot clear in the final quarter-mile to eventually come home nine lengths clear, it was a completely different story in the Derby!
The form book will show that Serpentine sprang a 25-1 surprise as he made all for a famous victory from one of six runners for Aidan O’Brien, who was winning the race for an incredible eighth time.
Even more surprising was that the winner only lost his maiden tag at the third time of asking the previous weekend.
At a more modest level on a day to day basis the unusual format of the rescheduled racecards has been challenging to say the least.
To illustrate this point let us consider how the betting market has panned out during the first month of the restart versus how they performed in the years 2017-19.
We will concentrate on the horses that were returned the clear favourite:-
In the 3 years during 2017-19 inclusively, just over a third of all Flat races run in the UK were won by the returned SP clear favourite.
If we drill down a little further we can get the correlation between handicaps and non-handicaps, and as you would expect the latter group performed at a higher rate:-
How has the month of June worked out for the clear jollies?
Breaking those down to race type we see….
Both race types have dipped below the 3 year benchmark but the significant factor for me is the ROI% at SP for the Handicaps which have gone down by 3% points from -6.31 to -9.46.
This is even more marked on the Betfair SP where the ROI has gone from -2.04% to
At first glance these may appear to be relatively minor changes but a good number of the pro-punters work on a profit margin circa 5-10% per annum, so in that context a shift of 3-4% has real significance.
It undoubtedly remains tricky conditions to punt in, but hopefully with 3 and a bit months to go we can still eke out some profits by following a quartet of trainers that in recent times have fared well in the closing stages of the flat turf season.
End of season Trainers to Follow (August+)
First up is Wiltshire based Roger Charlton who, at the time of writing, has had a relatively quiet time of it since the delayed restart, with 12 winners from the 56 runners, but they would have made a profit to level 1pt stakes at SP, which bodes well for us.
If we consider how the general benchmark of the yards performance, let us take a look at how they have fared over the last two flat turf campaigns:-
An average of one winner for every six runners is pretty good going as is the 70.30pts level stakes profit to Betfair SP. However, if we had stopped the clock at the end of July in both years, the collective P&L would read just shy of 18 points of losses. This clearly points to a strong finish in the final stages of the campaigns:-
On closer inspection there was one winner that went in at a monster price during the latter stages of the 2018 flat turf season with Catan at 33/1, paying out a stonking 80.00 on the Betfair SP.
Having said that the biggest priced winner in equivalent period for 2019 was a mere 16/1 shot and as can be seen below the P&L was even better during that year:-
For our Gold and Platinum members Steve gives us four trainers who historically have been hot during the month of August.
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Happy punting and stay safe.