Research Corner

Last time around we highlight the potentially profitable angle of following trainer Nigel “Twister”-Davies in the early part of the NH campaign, and at the time of writing (12^th Sept) we are still waiting for his first jumps winner from the few that have made it to the track, the yard managed to slide one (and get past our system builder set up) in with Supakalanistic, a fair staying hurdler, winning on his Flat debut at Chepstow (16/1).

For this piece we will stay on the National Hunt theme with a trio of trainer based snippets that hopefully will provide us with some fun, and profits, during the proper autumn/winter jumps season.

First up is a relatively new kid on the block in the form of Sandy Thomson (Thomson, A M on Horseracebase).

Sandy Thomson

Horses have always been a big part of activities at Lambden Farm and Sandy is the third generation to train from these particular stables.

His Grandfather enjoyed success both as a trainer and rider in point to points, and his father David also rode successfully in ptp’s and trained numerous winners on the tracks including, Half Awake who won the first running of the Greenalls Whitley Gold Cup at Haydock in 1969 and he trained Border Rag, who was 2nd at the Cheltenham festival.

Prior to training horses Sandy had a successful rugby career winning the Scottish Championship with Kelso, playing for the South of Scotland on numerous occasions including games against the All Blacks and Australia, and representing Scotland B.

When his rugby days came to an end horses became an even larger part of his life and having successfully trained some homebred point to pointers, and having had a few winners under Permit, he took out a full license in 2012.

His first big win was in 2013 when Netminder won the Weatherbys £60,000 Novice Chase at Ayr on Scottish Grand National Day.

To set the scene let us take a closer look at his recent record…

A slightly mixed bag of results, although the current year is shaping up very nicely!

So what do we find when we drill down a little by types of races:-

It is pretty evident from the above Table that the yard’s forte lies with their Chasers which given the past exploits in the point to points arena makes perfect sense.

They can win races with their Bumper and Hurdle runners but the standout profits to Betfair SP with the latter group is in the main due to Seemorelights win at 66/1 in 2017, having paid out a whopping 216.80 on the BFSP!

The next table shows the time of year, and is also likely to confirm that it is a traditional NH yard with proper jumpers etc.

There have been only 7 winners from 133 runners that made a racecourse appearance between April and September over the past 5 years.

So, this points heavily to us focussing on what the NH purists consider to be the proper jumps period of October through to the end of March.

If we combine that timeline with the earlier findings of concentrating on the Chasers we find the following:-

A solid and consistent 20%+ strike rate and a profit in each of the last 5 years, albeit a tiny one during 2016.

System 53: Back the runners from the Sandy Thomson yard when competing over fences during the period of October through to the end of March.

You may also want to consider upping your stakes for the months November through to the end of February as this has been the most profitable period based on the research data, although with the COVID situation that may not be quite the case for the coming campaign, only time will tell!

Happy punting and stay safe.

Steve Carter

For Gold members Steve has drilled down into the performance of two more NH trainers and shared angles that have produced a huge 83% ROI at Betfair SP.

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