Report on todays card. First race at Wetherby didn't produce any value bet winners, but we shouldn't have done too much damage as West Wizard going off 5/2 on the exchange really should have been a big lay!
The winner Oldgrangewood didnt get away fom us either , he was 5/1 on my tissue and had an SP of 4/1. In the marathon at Musselburgh our mentioned e/w bet Azure Fly ran a mighty race but couldn't quite get himself over the line and was an honourable second.
The winner didn't get away from us either with Dancing Shadow 7/1 on my tissue (priced up to 100%) and his SP was 6/1.
The 3:00 at Sandown we were correct to sit out despite the fact we were spot on about Behind Time the winner (Lord of the island) would have gotten away from us; he was 20/1 on my tissue and although he wasn't flagged up as a lay we didn't get the race right.
Again the 3:15 had no winners in the pack for us although I would like to have seen what would have happened had Bridget Andrews not given Optimus Prime a suicidal ride. The 3:35 at Sandown park had a nice winner in Otago Trail (@ 9/2) who also shortened like we said he should, also if you were a layer betting off the card you would have been entitled to lay Beg to Differ who we had in at 6/1 and you could lay plenty of 5/2 on the exchange.
The last at Sandown we were absolutely spot on, We had Another Venture in as our 3/1 favourite and flagged up as a bet at 9/2 who won in a professional manner, and we got a good run from Justification for third and again if you were a layer you should have got stuck into laying Druids Folly who was 6/1 on my tissue and who went off a very short price indeed and got beat. In the last at Musselburgh we got a placed horse with Jonny Delta.
Note: The prices in red are my tissue prices, not those available
Cup Final 4/1, Oscar Rock 4/1, wotitzname 6/1, Alzammaar 9/1, el bandit 10/1, clondaw Kaempfer 12/1, 16/1 bar
These Pertemps qualifiers are always competitive so getting this priced up was a challenge. Cup Final goes well fresh and has won off a long absence before so this being his seasonal reappearance holds no concern , he is a high class handicapper but this mark requires a new level of performance from him in ground that is perhaps not quite soft enough for him. But the 8/1 general price being offered about him is silly in my opinion, there is no way he goes off bigger than that .
Oscar Rock could be very very dangerous off his current mark and in my opinion is the best handicapped horse in the race. Oscar Rocks chase mark is in the early 150's so a hurdles mark of 145 holds no terrors for him. Again the 11/2 offered about him seems rather generous, especially given how well bet he was last time out.
Wotitzname is the least exposed in the race and merits some respect and he has his ground conditions. Alzamaar put in a brilliant display on stable debut almost running down Nietschze who had all the 4-yo allowances in the formers favour.
El Bandit shaped as though he didnt quite get the trip last time out over 3m's but ground conditions that day were soft and tomorrow will be much more to his liking.
Suggestions & plays:- At current prices I would be betting Oscar Rock (11/2) and Cup Final (8/1 gen) and expect them both to shorten up from the prices at time of writing. I certainly wont be laying anything in this field even if one gets bet into a ridiculous price its just too competitive.