Report on todays card. First race at Wetherby didn't produce any value bet winners, but we shouldn't have done too much damage as West Wizard going off 5/2 on the exchange really should have been a big lay!

The winner Oldgrangewood didnt get away fom us either , he was 5/1 on my tissue and had an SP of 4/1. In the marathon at Musselburgh our mentioned e/w bet Azure Fly ran a mighty race but couldn't quite get himself over the line and was an honourable second.

The winner didn't get away from us either with Dancing Shadow 7/1 on my tissue (priced up to 100%) and his SP was 6/1.

The 3:00 at Sandown we were correct to sit out despite the fact we were spot on about Behind Time the winner (Lord of the island) would have gotten away from us; he was 20/1 on my tissue and although he wasn't flagged up as a lay we didn't get the race right.

Again the 3:15 had no winners in the pack for us although I would like to have seen what would have happened had Bridget Andrews not given Optimus Prime a suicidal ride. The 3:35 at Sandown park had a nice winner in Otago Trail (@ 9/2) who also shortened like we said he should, also if you were a layer betting off the card you would have been entitled to lay Beg to Differ who we had in at 6/1 and you could lay plenty of 5/2 on the exchange.

The last at Sandown we were absolutely spot on, We had Another Venture in as our 3/1 favourite and flagged up as a bet at 9/2 who won in a professional manner, and we got a good run from Justification for third and again if you were a layer you should have got stuck into laying Druids Folly who was 6/1 on my tissue and who went off a very short price indeed and got beat. In the last at Musselburgh we got a placed horse with Jonny Delta.

Note: The prices in red are my tissue prices, not those available

Musselburgh 4:10

Cup Final 4/1, Oscar Rock 4/1, wotitzname 6/1, Alzammaar 9/1, el bandit 10/1, clondaw Kaempfer 12/1, 16/1 bar

These Pertemps qualifiers are always competitive so getting this priced up was a challenge. Cup Final goes well fresh and has won off a long absence before so this being his seasonal reappearance holds no concern , he is a high class handicapper but this mark requires a new level of performance from him in ground that is perhaps not quite soft enough for him. But the 8/1 general price being offered about him is silly in my opinion, there is no way he goes off bigger than that .

Oscar Rock could be very very dangerous off his current mark and in my opinion is the best handicapped horse in the race. Oscar Rocks chase mark is in the early 150's so a hurdles mark of 145 holds no terrors for him. Again the 11/2 offered about him seems rather generous, especially given how well bet he was last time out.

Wotitzname is the least exposed in the race and merits some respect and he has his ground conditions. Alzamaar put in a brilliant display on stable debut almost running down Nietschze who had all the 4-yo allowances in the formers favour.

El Bandit shaped as though he didnt quite get the trip last time out over 3m's but ground conditions that day were soft and tomorrow will be much more to his liking.

Suggestions & plays:- At current prices I would be betting Oscar Rock (11/2) and Cup Final (8/1 gen) and expect them both to shorten up from the prices at time of writing. I certainly wont be laying anything in this field even if one gets bet into a ridiculous price its just too competitive.


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  1. Hi Darren

    I enjoyed the Tissue price articles and particularly liked the back and lay propositions.

    Early days yet but please continue to send them to me.

    Kind Regards

    Geoff

  2. hi decent read interesting approach not particularly into laying side of the article but level stake betting or dutching okay with me

  3. Disappointed that you have looked at the one race which is too rarified price wise for my betting.
    Saturday, you gave some good ‘tips’ which were unfortunately close misses.
    Count me in.

  4. Hi,

    In your analysis of the 15:35 at Catterick on February 3rd, you advise overbacking Black Narcissus and then laying some back when the price shortens. I’m not familiar with this concept so would it be possible for you to give a worked example using this method please?

    Say for example my normal bet is £25 – how much should I overbet (10%, 20% 50%?) and how much should I look for the price to shorten before placing the lay bet?

    1. Well first of all this was a bad example as even though it won Black Narcissus didnt shorten like I thought it should unfortunately. However we will work with a theoretical example where I get the market right, say the horse selected is available at 10/1 with the firms now I would only recommend over betting for say 20% (at first), working with your example a stake of £25 would now become £30. If our selection shortens and is available to lay on the exchange at a price of say 8.0 (7/1) then we can keep our stake of £25 on the horse at enhanced odds. We do this by laying our selection for our £5 (20%) overbet at 8.0 we now have a bet of £25 at just over 10.5/1. Now obviously its not exactly pulling up any trees at these prices but we need to try and strive to get every ounce of value out of every winner. Also like anything in racing its risk/reward so when you become more comfortable at seeing when a horse is going to shorten you can then increase your overbet and then later your odds, with the eventual goal being able to generate say a 12/1 winner when the largest price offered by the firms was only 9/1. Now the question of how much shortening is enough and when to lay back is to some extent an unaswearble question as nobody can quite predict when a horse will stop being backed, my philosophy is to not get too greedy if i’ve backed a horse at 10/1 and I can lay say 17/2 then I will take it. There will be occasions when you do that and it goes off 6/1 and wins and you think , if only I’d waited but in my experience the first gain is the best gain.
      I hope this helps
      Joe

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