The New Year is one of those times that some of us look back and reflect on our past betting and decide to change our betting habits as methods have not delivered the profits as we would like, while others may continue blindly with the same old, same old.
To try something new this year the Acorns Corner is going to look at stopping at a winning month. All will come clear at the end of the article.
Sam England took out a dual trainer’s licence back in 2016, her dad was a dairy farmer and Sam rode as an amateur point to point jockey riding their own horses that they had on the farm, moving to riding as a conditional jockey when her dad took out a licence so that their horses could race under rules. She is based at Manor Farm in Guiseley near Leeds, West Yorkshire
Since 2016 she has had 894 runners with a 10.98% strike rate and a 28.16% place strike rate.
The majority of runners have come in National Hunt races, but all codes have had a similar win strike rate.
With the best results coming in handicap races and an inferior performance with Non handicaps.
On that basis we are going to investigate Sam’s Handicap runners since 2016 to see if there are any angles there, and whether her quoted comment that her favourite tracks are Sedgefield and Catterick, “two small friendly courses that we always do well at” stands true.
Concentrating on her National Hunt Handicap runners, Sam has had 173 runners in the first quarter of the year and a slightly improved strike rate of 14.85% over the January – March period.
And over 90% of those runners have run in Class 3 races or lower.
The chase runners are the ones which offer up a chance of profits and had you backed the 79 runners in chases since 2016 you would be very slightly up at Betfair prices.
The hurdlers would have seen a significant loss backing either win only or each way.
What we can see from the stats is that her runners perform better when not having to travel too far from home, and the northern tracks are favoured with a win strike rate of 21.54% and a place strike rate of 43.08%
In addition, look for those runners aged between 8 and 10 years of age as it is this age band where all 14 of the winners have come from and almost half of the runners overall have placed.
2017 saw a small loss of -3.67 points, and 2021 returned a small profit of just 1 point, the balance of years produced profits with the best year having been 2020 returning 12.41 points to SP (15.49 to BFSP).
There would be no benefit backing the runners Each-Way so our advice would be:
System 46: Back Sam England’s 8-10 yr. old, Class 3-5 Handicap Chasers when running on a track in the north of England during January-March.
If the early part of 2022 becomes a bit of a wash out, which let’s face it has happened before we need a back up plan, so we are going to look at John Mackie as our fail safe.
John Mackie trains in the grounds of Barton Blunt Estate in the Derbyshire countryside. In the past 6 years there have been 112 runners during the first quarter of the year with the majority of those (93) having run on the All Weather.
In fact, had you back them blindly you would have made a profit of 8.75pts to SP and 14.60pts had you backed Each Way.
10 of those 13 winners came over 6-7f so it looks like that would be a sensible approach for us to follow this New Year.
A large part of the profits did come in 2019, but just 2016 was a year of loss and to that end only by -1.00 point.
On that basis:
System 47: Back John Mackie’s All Weather runners when running over 6-7f during January-March 2022.
In both instances the bulk of their winners came during the month of January and therefore we will review at the end of January.
If we are in a profit (5 points or more), we will look to bank the profits and leave both systems there and stopping at a winning month. If we are running at a loss we will continue into February.
P.S Also we have an Approved System from the Acorns for the month of January which was flagged up in Issue 74 (System 66). It produced 9.48 points profit backing Each Way to SP in 2021. Hopefully a few points can be banked again this year.
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