During the summer months the spotlight tends to be on the Turf Flat but these days jump meetings operate all year round so we have decided to take a look and see if there are a couple of trainers who we can add to our summer jumping portfolio.
A quick glance at horseracebase.com for successful trainers during the summer months points us initially to the runners from the Neil King yard.
Operating out of Ridgeway Stables in the Marlborough Downs the stable boasts “some of the best facilities in the country”. Priding himself as a “hands on trainer” King keeps his stable to a size where he can “train every horse as an individual to get the best possible results”. (At the time of writing there are currently 32 horses in training).
At first glance, success since 2018 results may not seem to offer much to be going on with (although a profit was achieved in 2019), but there are a significant number of runners and there maybe something hidden amongst this lot that can point us to a profitable angle.
A look at the trainers’ performance over the year clearly shows a marked increase in strike rate for the months July through to October.
And in fact, had you backed blindly you would have turned a profit of almost 100 points…
… but we do need to be careful and not take everything totally at face value as we are well aware that one big priced 66/1 winner dropping in can massage the figures.
The P and L isn’t totally skewed, 2018’s winners were short, priced favourites through to a 9/1, 10/1 and a 20/1 shot. 2020’s did throw in a 40/1 winner in Balagan in July last year together with 3 other double figure priced winners with the rest being the short, priced favourite. So, we do need to be careful.
That said it is quite clear that the bigger priced entries are capable of popping in a win unannounced.
Race types to be avoided are Maidens (Hurdles and NH Flat), with no winners from 6 races, together with Handicap Novices and Handicap Sellers, with 2 wins from 11 runs.
The 32 winners have all been ridden by one of 5 jockey’s Jack Andrews (Amateur), Bryony Frost, Wayne Hutchinson, Miss LM Pinchin and Jack Quinlan, but Jack Andrews win was the only win in 10 rides for the stable.
System 10: Back Neil Kings runners where the race criteria fit that shown above and back to Win only at BFSP.
Ronan M P McNally
Ronan McNally has been training since 2016 and is a small stable which has not been without scrutiny. Back in October last year McNally was investigated for the second time into Dreal Deal’s improved performance. The horse had landed a “high profile” gamble over the hurdles at Navan the previous month and then was switched to the flat the following month and won at odds of 5-6 off a mark of just 45!
At first glance there may not be much to look at from the McNally results since his inception to the hall of trainers with a strike rate of 16% (although the place rate is respectable).
A closer look though shows us a marked improvement in strike for the months June to September.
We may have missed the boat for June, but we feel it is worth taking a look at what July – September may offer.
As we can see below there has been a profit every year, albeit a modest one.
And all of those winners have arisen in Handicap races.
We would expect a lean toward the Irish tracks but as can be seen there has been a 100% place strike rate and an almost 60% win strike rate in the UK.
That said, we certainly feel that it is worth taking a punt on McNally’s Handicap runners both when out in the UK and over in Ireland. A steady 8- 10 points as seen over the last 3 years is something we won’t turn our noses up at.
System 34: Back Ronan McNally National Hunt Handicap runners during the months of July-September.
Featured Image: (CC BY 4.0) – Huge Leap From Horse | Horse jumping | Paul | Flickr