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The Racing Horse – Exeter Racecourse Template – 14th November

The Racing Horse offers their Exeter Racecourse Template for Monday 14 November 2022. 

There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be good.

Winning favourites
Non-Handicaps                    Handicaps
Hurdle 53-103	51%	-3.69	 44-125	 35%	-1.60
Chase  21-40	53%	-0.72	 37-117	 32%	-2.09
NHF    14-33	42%	+0.92	 	  	
TOTAL  88-176	50%	-3.49	 81-242	 33%	-3.69

Exeter Top 5 Trainers (5 years)               +/-   R
J Tizzard (13%)  28-194	  14%	-53.69        +1%   4
P Hobbs (15%)    28-194	  14%	-66.49        -1%   7
P Nicholls (24%) 25-95	  26%	-14.69        +2%   5
D Pipe (14%)     18-157	  11%	-65.04        -3%   2
H Fry (18%)      17-67	  25%	+17.61        +7%   4

Hot Trainer 15/10/2022 to 13/11/2022          +/-   R
P Nicholls (24%) 29-78    37%    +5.75       +13%   5
J Snowden (16%)  11-34    32%    +1.12       +16%   2
H Fry (18%)       6-25    24%    +1.88        +6%   4
D Pipe (14%)     12-55    22%    -1.00        +8%   2

Exeter Top 5 Jockeys (5 years)                +/-   E
H Cobden (22%)    25-112   22%	-24.55        +0%   4
T Scudamore (13%) 17-135   13%	-29.31        +0%   2 
S Bowen (17%)     14-68	   21%	+23.57        +4%   3
B Carver (14%)    12-55	   22%	+59.90        +8%   2
Tom O'Brien (11%) 11-117    9%  -75.58        -2%   2 

Hot Jockey 15/10/2022 to 13/11/2022           +/-   R
H Cobden (22%)       27-62   44%   +2.25     +22%   4
T Scudamore (13%)    14-64   22%   -3.00      +9%   2 

Exeter Top 5 Owners (5 years)                 +/-   E
J P McManus (17%)   12-62   19%	  -15.05      +2%   1
Brocade Racing (16%) 7-52   13%	  -26.87      -2%   1
D V Gardner (8%)     5-36   14%	   -4.50      +6%   0
S M Trump (12%)	     4-22   18%	   +2.50      +6%   1
William Rucker (15%) 4-28   14%	   -4.25      -1%   0

FIXTURES
Monday 14 November 2022
Sunday 20 November 2022
Friday 2 December 2022

FAVOURITES – Over the past 5 years winning favourites score at way above the national average showing 169-418 for 40.43% (-7.18).

This is a fabulous strike rate for a NH Racecourse and one that should not only be acknowledged but absorbed! To level stakes at SP shows a tiny loss of -7.18, so just a modicum of filtration would produce a blind profit.

Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles and chases score a big 74-143 for 51.75% (-4.41).

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

Monday's card contains 10 beaten favourites last time out, 8 of which are from top stables, could be an interesting angle.

TRAINERS Paul Nicholls continues his brilliant form scoring 20-42 for 48% in the last 14 days and 5 of his last 7 runners have been winners including the win of Hermes Allen. He now has 5 runners for Exeter on Monday.

Philip Hobbs (15%) has 7 runners, he looks the trainer to follow and will hope to record a win double! Joe Tizzard (14%) has 4 runners.

We are reminded of the big strike rate of Harry Fry who scores 25% at Exeter, so 7% above his national average, he has 4 runners.

JOCKEYS – All 5 jockeys from our leader board have rides.

Given his ability the 9% strike rate at Exeter of Tom O'Brien looks poor, and he will want to improve that number this season riding for Philip Hobbs (15%).

Harry Cobden (22%) is leading jockey, and he has 4 rides and almost certain to ride at least one winner!

OWNERS – Three of the top five owners have a runner, they include CAMPROND 1.30 for J P McManus, WESTERN GENERAL 2.00 for Brocade and RADDON TOP 1.00 for Mrs S M Trump.

BY THE WAY: Please note the figures of Colin Tizzard & Joe Tizzard are amalgamated. Joe Tizzard is yet to record his first win at Exeter and currently 0-6. Ironically Team Tizzard and Philip Hobbs share the same 5-year figures at the course so top spot is up for grabs.

BY THE WAY 2: An example of the importance, accuracy and honesty of Racecourse Templates.

When we think of Exeter, we automatically assume Paul Nicholls reigns supreme here, and whilst he scores at 26%, he is not top trainer over the past 5 years. His all-time record at the course shows 178-729 for 24% (-163.94) and rates his 8th best course for winners. He has scored more winners at Fontwell than Exeter. The point we are making is the templates help to remove bias and opinion giving cold hard facts instead!

1.00
SAN AUGUSTIN
(T Lacey) trainer 25% with staying hurdlers, Cameron Isles rides
CASPERS COURT (K Woollacott) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Buckley rides

1.30
MCFABULOUS
(P Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Grade 2 to Class 3, Harry Cobden rides and 39% on chase favourites
CAMPROND (P Hobbs) won competitive Punchestown handicap over this trip when last seen in April, Aidan Coleman rides

2.00
TIMEFORATUNE
(P Nicholls) hot trainer. Smart bumper, looked in need of the experience at Chepstow, potential to leave that run behind, Harry Cobden rides and 50% on hurdling favourites
BEN BULBEN (H Fry) trainer 21% in early season, trainer shows profit of £12.81 with horses running after a break, Sean Bowen rides
ALDSWORTH (A King) beaten favourite last time out, Thomas Bellamy rides

2.30
REPRESENTING BOB
(J Snowden) hot trainer, did well over fences last season, more races in him this term judged on solid second at Uttoxeter on return, Gavin Sheehan rides
ROYAL LAKE (O Sherwood) beaten favourite last time out, Jonathan Burke rides
WILLIAM PHILO (R Walford) beaten favourite last time out, Stan Sheppard rides

3.00
MASTERS LEGACY
(P Hobbs) bettered useful hurdles form straight away when making winning start in this sphere over C&D 10 days ago. Micheal Nolan rides
MR GLASS (P Nicholls) hot trainer, beaten favourite last time out, trainer 21% with handicap chase debutants, 24% with chasers running 19f up to 3m, Harry Cobden rides

3.30
FAIRY GEM
(H Fry) beaten favourite last time out, Sean Bowen rides
LUTINBELLA (F O'Brien) beaten favourite last time out, Paddy Brennan rides and 38% on hurdling favourites
SISTER SAINT (P Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out, Harry Cobden ride
DIME STORE COWGIRL (D Skelton) formerly with C Bowe, Harry Skelton rides

4.05
BROOMFIELDS CAVE
(N Mulholland) formerly with M Osborne, Sean Bowen rides
CARRIGMOORNA ROWAN (H Fry) formerly with D Queally, trainer shows profit of £19.79 with bumper debutants Jonathan Burke rides (trainer also runs DANTON)
BIG FISH (E Lavelle) 92 of Flemensfirth progeny have won their first bumper, Thomas Bellamy rides
MICRONORMOUS (D Pipe) formerly with H Dunne, Tom Scudamore rides

“Exeter is a beautiful track – in my opinion definitely one of the best in Britain – and it’s a great place to take a novice chaser. The fences are very fair, and the ground is usually lovely. Years ago, they seemed to struggle to water around there, partly, I imagine, because the course covers such a vast expanse of land. But it holds its condition really well now and it’s a great place to ride. It’s a fine test of a horse – really good – and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that so many top trainers like to go there.” – Mick Fitzgerald

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse

Featured Image: ita72 | 20191022, Exeter Races, October 22nd 2019 | Peter Edmondson | Flickr

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