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Thirsk Racing Tips for Today

The Racing Horse offers their first THIRSK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Friday 9 June 2023.

With an aggregate of just 456 races the sample size is underdeveloped so beware of a literal translation, but the numbers still contain value and succour.

There is a 7-race card including 5 Handicaps, a Novice Stakes and a Selling Race.

The going is expected to be good to firm, good in places.

THIRSK FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo    29-73    40%   -1.94	5-16     31%     -0.04
3yo    32-60    53%   +2.66	25-94    27%    -19.06
4yo+    4-14    29%   -4.02	56-199   28%     -3.97
Total  65-147   44%   -3.31	86-309   28%    -23.07

TOP 5 TRAINERS at THIRSK 5 years               +/-   E
T Easterby (9%)  33-416    8%   -122.37        -1%   7   
D O'Meara (12%)  26-206   13%     +3.45        +1%   2  
R Fahey (11%)    25-213   12%    -49.46        +1%   0 
M Dods (11%)     22-234    9%    -49.77        -2%   3
K Ryan (12%)     21-147   14%     +9.12        +2%   3  

HOT TRAINERS 10/05/2023 to 08/06/2023          +/-   E
K Dalgleish (00%) 9-36	  25%	  -6.49      
R Beckett (17%)  18-82	  22%	  -0.04        +5%   1

COLD LIST TRAINERS  SAW                              E
K Ryan (12%)	     32    19 days                   3
J J Quinn (12%)	     26    19 days                   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at THIRSK 5 years                +/-   R
D Tudhope (17%)   30-154   19%    +19.18       +2%   2   
D Allan (11%)     27-223   12%    -31.37       +1%   5   
C Beasley (12%)   18-172   10%    -57.73       -2%   3   
P Hanagan (12%)   16-112   14%    +11.26       +2%   0     
P Mulrennan (12%) 16-176    9%    -12.40       -3%   3

HOT JOCKEYS 10/05/2023 to 08/06/2023           +/-   R
J Fanning (14%) 19-81	 24%	 +48.82       +10%   4
M Winn (15%)	 6-27	 22%	  +1.36        +7%   1
J Crowley (20%)  9-47	 19%	 +62.59        -1%   1 

COLD LIST JOCKEYS  SAW                               R
D Fentiman (7%)     56    41 days                    2
T Eaves (6%)	    52    21 days                    2

TOP 5 OWNERS at THIRSK 5 years                 +/-   E
Obaid Al Maktoum (19%) 8-23   35%   +14.75    +16%   0
K&J Bloodstock (12%)   6-13   46%   +41.50    +34%   0
Clipper Log (16%)      6-25   24%   +29.25     +8%   0
J D A Maktoum (16%)    5-14   36%    +0.29    +20%   0
Godolphin (25%)        5-19   26%    -0.37     +1%   0        

Next fixtures
Friday 9 June 2023
Tuesday 20 June 2023
Wednesday 5 July 2023

COURSE: The round course is a left-handed, oval track, just over a mile and a quarter in extent, with a run-in of half a mile. There is a straight six-furlong course, which is slightly undulating throughout.

The round course itself is almost perfectly flat, but though the turns are relatively easy and the ground well levelled all round, the track is on the sharp side and by no means ideal for a horse that requires time to settle down, and time and space to get down to work in the straight.

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Thirsk show 151-456 for 33.11% (-26.38) so just above the national average of 32%. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% whilst handicap favourites only 28%.

Predictably, 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps fare best scoring 32-60 for a big 53%, a figure that looks artificially high if measured against a bigger sample.

TRAINERS: Kevin Ryan (12%) and John Quinn (12%) are now on the cold list; they have 5 runners entered between them and that could be an interesting angle in.

Looking for southern raiders we note Daniel & Claire Kubler sends FISCAL POLICY 4.40, a last time out winner up from Lambourn and it looks as if they mean business. David Egan rides.

Leading trainer at the track, albeit based on volume and an 8% strike rate, is Tim Easterby (9%). He throws 7 darts at the board and a trainer (with shenanigans) we readily oppose. His Thirsk figures show 33-416 for 8% (-122.37) over the past 5 years. His all-time numbers at the course are 147-1802 for 8% (-693.13) and this is a track just 25 miles from his stables. Does he school some of them here? Just asking.

JOCKEYS: Joseph Kevin Fanning is approaching his 53-year-old birthday yet he is absolutely smashing it this year! He has a national average of 14% and won races at every single UK Racecourse. We have never sure how to measure/rate this loyal jockey though know he has been a huge part of Mark Johnston's success and more than given credit for. Since that trainer retired and open to more outside rides, he appears to be riding better than ever, especially if the last 3 months can be sustained in some part:

June:   7-20    35%     £73,787    +19.79
May:   14-77    18%    £217,354    +15.37
April: 12-47    26%    £107,287    +41.31
Total: 33-144   23%    £398,428    +76.47

These figures are outstanding and have a significant look given the 144-ride time-frame. It is not like he had a good couple of weeks. His last 14 days show 11-33 for 33% and as we go to post he has 5 decent rides at Hamilton on Thursday, and then 3 rides tomorrow at Thirsk, including 2 for Ann Duffield and 1 for Charlie Johnston. His rides include AZUCENA 1.40, KNIGHTSWOOD 4.10 & SYDNEY BAY 4.40.

OWNERS: None of the top owners at the course have a runner for this meeting.

RED FLAG:

Ralph Beckett's (17%) entry is the 3yo Sea The Stars filly WIND IN YOUR SAILS 2.40 who is demanding early attention! She was a beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 2 to Class 5 and is the longest traveller (265-miles) on the card, Rossa Ryan rides for a trainer in fabulous form! He had 3 entries for this race originally but runs this filly. It is worth reviewing her last run at Windsor in a Class 2 Maiden when made the 7/2 favourite after being available at prices close to 10/1 (albeit a withdrawal in the race). She took a keen hold and kept on and only headed in the final 100 yards beaten ¾l. That 14-runner race was very strong and now she drops into a Class 5 Novice.

It is worth highlighting the form of the trainer since March:

June:   4-19   21%    +3.00
May:   18-85   21%   -11.21
April:  5-21   19%    +2.00
March:  3-5    60%    +7.70

The numbers above should be measured against his national average of 17%. The consensus throughout racing is Beckett is one of the top UK trainers but absolutely excels with fillies! We believe she will improve past Mubhija (R Varian) but what is perceived value about this filly, we have taken the early 5/4? Winning 3yo favourites in non-handicaps show 32-60 53% at Thirsk over the past 5 years…

Pertinence

1.40
STORM FOX
(T Easterby) beaten favourite last time out, first time cheek pieces, David Allan rides.
EMERALDS PRIDE (M Dods) Won her Maiden here, Respectable 2nd of 11 in Beverley 5f Handicap 9 days ago, staying on well. Connor Beasley rides.
CINQUE VERDE (K Burke) Lightly-raced maiden. Cheekpieces on for 1st time, creditable 4th of 12 in Doncaster Handicap 41 days ago. Eye shields now on. Sam James rides.

2.10
MONTELUSA
(J Coulson) beaten favourite last time out, formerly with T Easterby, Frederick Larson rides.
TOTHENINES (K Burke) suited by return to sprinting, sets standard on pick of form dropped into a seller. Brandon Wilkie (7) rides.

2.40 (Favs: 32-60 53%)
WIND IN YOUR SAILS (R Beckett) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 2 to Class 5, long traveller 265-miles, Rossa Ryan rides. PACAFI STATUS
MUBHIJAH (R Varian) placed 5 times from 7 runs, Jim Crowley has only one ride.

3.10
BELSITO
(K Ryan) beaten favourite last time out, return to 6f will suit, Tom Eaves rides.
GRANNY B (J J Quinn) beaten favourite last time out, on a tempting mark, Harrison Shaw rides.
JUST JANET (D O'Meara) dual winner last year. Good 2nd of 9 in Leicester Handicap 10 days ago, player now fitted with first time cheek pieces. Danny Tudhope rides.

3.40
LAAKHOF
(D Carroll) winner in the last 7 days, now seeking hat-trick, Harrison Shaw rides.
IMPERIAL KHAN (P Midgley) unpenalised for his Beverley win, must run a place at least, Paul Muir (3) rides.
JAMES WATT (P Midgley) weighted to win 76 > 60 though 0-11 and needs to bounce back, Graham Lee rides.

4.10
KNIGHTSWOOD
(C Johnston) won back-to-back races this time last year, has tactical speed, can repeat under hot jockey Joe Fanning.
ROBERT JOHNSON (P Kirby) beaten favourite last time out, improved back on the level this term, Connor Beasley rides.

4.40
FISCAL POLICY
(D & C Kubler) long traveller 222-miles, not straightforward but the one to beat, David Egan rides.
DREAM TOGETHER (J O'Keefe) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, weighted to win 69 > 58, Jack Garrity rides.
ATOMISE (M Dods) step back up to 6f will suit. First run since leaving Charlie Fellowes when respectable 5th of 9 in Ripon Handicap on return 19 days ago. Oliver Stammers rides.

There’s quite an advantage in being close to the stands’ side rail on the sprint track at Thirsk and it can get congested there. The top turn on the round course catches some horses out – it’s an undulating left-hander – and you see quite a few lose their race there. Balance is critical at that point, as there’s a ridge that throws you out to the right, and, if you don’t meet it well, you can struggle the rest of the way round. If you’re on one that handles it, though, you can kick and get all your rivals in trouble. – Jason Weaver

– Jason Weaver

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse

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