November 24, 2020

Tis the season

We have reached the end of the year and I think we can safely say “Good Riddance!”  No-one could have foreseen what this year would bring, but we have to hope that 2021 will offer us something a little more positive.

The Christmas period is still scheduled to offer us a busy batch of racing events including racing from Aintree, Punchestown and Kempton with the King George VI Chase.

There have been 950 runners at these three tracks during the month of December over the past 3 years.

And breaking those runners down by age shows how the old guard have been handing over their crowns to a modestly younger fraternity with any horse over the age of 8 years struggling to make the frame in their races with just 5 runners from 129 winning their race (18 placed in total).

Aintree Runners

There are a group of trainers who have delivered winners at Aintree over the last three years during the month of December.

And backing their Aintree runners blindly would have seen you make a profit year on year.

Surely it can’t really be that simple!

There have been 4 double figure priced winners from the above trainers, the largest price being West Bridge at 40/1 in 2018.

System 92: Back runners from the above trainers at Aintree during the month of December.

Kempton runners

Of the Kempton runners through December in the past 3 years there have been 294 runners and of the 36 winners, all were aged 8 or less.

The winning trainers over the past 3 years are shown below.

2017 would have seen us with a loss but 15 points down on 54 bets…we can’t cry too much about that one in comparison to the following 2 years.

Yet again a blind backing of the runners from the above trainers would have seen the past 2 years with a healthy profit.

None of the winners priced in at greater than 25/1.

We must be missing something surely

System 74: Back runners from the above trainers at Kempton (National Hunt) during the month of December.

And then…we head over to Punchestown.

Punchestown runners

No, we haven’t saved the best until last; we have saved the most precarious until last…42 winners from 459 runners, and yes all of those winners were aged 8 or less.

The trainers…?

Again, backing blindly would give a profit year on year over the 3 year period.

There is no way it can be that simple surely.

Look at pricing… 2019 landed a 66/1 winner but that winner landed in a BFSP of 190.00!

System 73: Back runners from the above trainers at Punchestown during the month of December.

If you wanted to go down the price management road to filter out the big priced winners such a method would likely become almost impossible to manage as we have little or no way of telling what the starting price will be, particularly in these current times with prices changing dramatically.

You can watch the markets if you are able to, but prices can flip flop within the final few seconds.

Yes there are some big named trainers in these lists and the chances are we will be backing some runners at short prices while we back blindly, we will also probably be looking to backing multiple runners in the same race, but there are some big priced winners, and it only takes one of those to turn a losing day in to a profitable one.

With the acorns we do like a simple approach and the ROI% to WIN Only makes a pleasant read…though the way 2020 is going at the moment…let’s keep positive!

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Steve Carter

Steve Carter is the Associate Editor of On Course Profits magazine. He has relied on his betting skills and knowledge for his income for the past 15+ years. He specialises in horse racing and football betting & trading and knows what it takes to make a living from betting. He is always looking for new angles for himself and On Course Profits readers.

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