Tissue Prices & Advice

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Lingfield:- 4:00

My Book :- 3/1 Cape Caster , Mr. Muddle 9/2, After Hours 9/2, Tara Bridge 11/2, Doitforthevillage 13/2, Rock on Rocky 14/1, Astigos 25/1

From an odds compiling perspective there are a few tricky angles in this race with form lines of Doitforthevillage and After hours running through Tara Bridge. Starting at the front of the market, Cape caster won last time out and receives a 5lb rise, beating rock on rocky even though it jumped abysmally, making it very hard to see a reversal in form considering rock on rocky will presumably try and pillar to post this lot.

Cape Caster deserves its price of around 3/1 with the firms but will have to jump better to follow up against a better field. Now After Hours has a couple of pieces of better form behind the likes of Walk in the mill so thats why he is shorter than Tara bridge even after the latter finished 1/2l up last time and receives a 2lb pull in the weights. For me though he was heavily bet last time and was dreadful, The 1st time cheekpieces seems like an act of desperation to me, I couldnt be taking 3/1 about him. Doitforthevillage was awful last time out plowing through fences when heavily bet not encouraging, the ground shouldnt be against him but he's 5lb higher than his last win mark and the jumping is a big concern for me. Astigos was off the bridle after 2 fences when facing Cape Caster and rock on rocky last time , I couldn't be having that at any price.

Suggestions & Plays:- From my perspective, I think Mr Muddle will go off shorter than the 8/1 offered about him at time of writing, he jumped well enough on stable debut to give me (and hopefully the moore stable) some confidence in him.

Rock on Rocky has to drift from 7/1 with the firms , I think your talking more 12/1 SP (there may be some money late dont be concerned this will be the pace angle ).

Astigos has to drift from 12/1 , R.Johnson will have to be a bloody magician to get that horse over the line first (he wins there will be a stewards). I'm of the opinion Tara bridge should shorten , whether it will or not is worth keeping an eye on for a possible move with a view to trade ,even if you disagree with me about his chances of success.

Southwell:- 3:10

My Book :- Listen to the man 7/4, Louis vac Pouch 7/2, Somewhere to be 9/2, Padawan 10/1, Qortaaj 16/1, Wynford 20/1 , 25/1 bar

Interesting this one. Surely as a PTP winner and being out of Court cave surely this horse needs 20f's +?

Apparently Mr.Skelton disagrees (who am i to argue) but 11/8 is no price to be backing him after he disappointed last time out. Soft ground should hold no concerns but its a brave man who follows an 11/8 fav after he disappointed at 1/9!! I mean surely you have to make him what 8/11 to be betting him and I would suggest you may have that wrong as some of this field have ability.

Louis vac Pouch finished strongly last time out and made some nice shapes over his hurdles but a lot of his sire's progeny prefer GS but this horse clearly has ability and I can see it getting some support being from a big powerful stable.

Its hard to know where we are with Somewhere to be after running in some pretty decent events behind the likes of Jenkins , he makes decent shapes over hurdles and travels strongly, clearly has some ability , a move for him would not be out of the blue. The one im interested in is Padawan who at 40/1 is really underestimated in my opinion, hes a PTP winner and will want further in time but travelled and jumped like he knew his job at Warwick and should be strip fitter for the run.

The 4yo pair of David Lougharne set a decent standard on the flat but I think Wynford will need further and I couldnt be backing a horse ive never seen jump a hurdle.

Suggestions & Plays:- I think this race is possibly best left alone, however if there was any money around for Padawan at 40/1 I will be chucking a few quid at him e/w.

Southwell 3:40

My Book :- Lady Buttons 3/1, Amantius 5/1, Straits of Messina 8/1, Dragon de la tour 8/1, Nightfly 12/1, 14/1 Alfred roller, 16/1 mahlers star, 20/1 bar

No Brainer this one, The money will come and probably keep coming for Lady buttons, whether you want to back it as a trade is a matter of personal choice. I think personally at those sort of prices its worth looking elsewhere for an e/w bet.

From an odds compiling perspective, there are 3 on my shortlist I was worried I would have too big those being Amantius , Straits of Messina, Dragon de la tour

I expect these to be the horses for e/w money, but this market is only going to go one way.

Suggestions & plays:- Lady buttons will be a trade to nothing whatever price they put up almost.

If there is to be a significant mover it will be for Jonjo's unexposed Alfred roller or the Malapie which has been off the track for 18 months, but personally I couldnt be backing them other than as an outright trade to nothing.

This is a race to go e/w against the favourite in my opinion.

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