We know that some trainers follow patterns; or at least appear to. Certain trainers seem to consistently produce good 2yos year in year out, others seem to excel at specific courses or particularly big meetings, others seem to peak at certain times of the year.
For this article I am going to be looking to see if we can get an edge early in the flat season through trainer patterns. I have looked at UK horse racing data going back to 2010 for the month of April – flat / all weather racing. As usual I have worked out profits using Betfair SP (less 5% commission).
Initially I have split the data in half covering two 5 year blocks (2010 to 2014 and 2015 to 2019), this is to make a straight comparison – for the record there was no racing in April in 2020 due to Covid 19.
So, let me first look at the trainers from 2010 to 2014 – I have ranked them by strike rate.
To qualify each trainer needed to have had at least 75 runners during April in both 5 year blocks – 2010 to 2014 and 2015 to 2019. In addition to make a list their strike rate needed to exceed 13%.
Several trainers showing good profits.
Now onto the next five year period 2015-2019:
Again, a good number of profitable trainers in the list.
At this point I want to look in more detail at all trainers who have had at least 75 runners in both 5 year periods.
I want to compare their strike rates as well as their profit/loss figures.
On the whole, when comparing strike rates from each 5-year block, the majority of the trainers have similar figures which is reassuring for followers of ‘trainer patterns’.
I would say only 7 trainers have vastly contrasting figures (see below).
The strike rates correlate neatly with the profit/loss columns too.
I hope April is a successful punting month for all readers.
For Gold members David takes a deeper look at those trainers that have either had a strike rate of 13% or more in both 5-year blocks and/or made a profit in both.
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