Well today was proof that the market doesn't get it right all the time! If you stuck by my prices you had some nice winners in What A Diva and Tornado in Milan, never let a drift put you off. The lays on the card also got beat in Pink Gin and Flaming charmer. We also got a few movers correct with Dusky lark drifting to our price.
(Note: The prices in red are my tissue prices, not those available)
2:10:-Halcyon Days 100/30, Caprice D'anglais 9/2, Bladoun 13/2, Field Of silk 13/2, No More Blackjack 11/2, Alchimix 7/1, 14/1 bar
Tight race this with no real outstanding candidates. At the front of my market is Halcyon Days who is super consistent and really a credit to his trainer, he was beaten 5l's last time out and goes again off the same mark.
His last race was won by a horse who put in a really creditable performance for the grade and despite not being dropped in the weights I expect him to give his running again and be there or thereabouts especially as he handles these soft conditions well. The firms are my price so no value here.
Caprice D'anglais' winning streak came to an abrupt end last time out, but really didnt give his running that day and is effectively dropped 5lb for the run. He was heavily backed last time out to complete his hat-trick but there didnt seem to be any obvious excuses for his bad run next time out, so I would struggle to back him personally. I especially couldn't be backing him with the bookies being the same price or shorter.
Bladoun had run a couple of promising races , goes in soft conditions and is starting to drop too an interesting mark which is below his hurdles win mark. At prices of 16/1 I think the market underestimates him at present. No More Black Jack was backed off the boards last time out at Newcastle and was extremely disappointing, being a PTP winner surely this trip will not see him to his best affect. Field of Silk is worth a mention despite still being a maiden under rules, he was beaten 9l's by a horse who was on a well established win mark and dropped 2lbs and seems to be getting the hang of jumping fences but may want further in time.
Suggestions and plays:- Im not sure how this market will pan out with several (Nomoreblackjack and Caprice D'anglais) being heavily backed last time out. If i was in the mind of backing Halcyon Days, it may be worth waiting before pulling the trigger as he drifted to a bigger price than his first show last time out. My bet on the card at current prices would be a small e/w on Bladoun at 16/1, with no lays in the race at current prices.
2:45:- Cracking find 7/2, Forty Crown 9/2, Cadouff 11/2, Lough Salt 6/1, Brian Bohana 7/1, Cooking Fat 9/1, 14/1 bar
I make this a horrendously tight race and so do the bookmakers. Plenty of cases can be made here, so we will start with the front of the market.
Cracking Find really surprised me last time out in a novice event and a repeat display would surely see him go close, he's a PTP winner so the step up in trip should not be a big concern. Unfortunately he falls in the no value category at present with bookies offering a best price at time of writing of 4/1. Forty Crown has been in great form and with the first time cheek pieces on he will hopefully continue that run. The form of his last race seems to stack up reasonably well with the horse finishing behind him coming out under a 2lb rise and going very close next time out. Again no value at present. Cadouff is an interesting one, but not the sort of horse I would want to hang my hat on alone as such. His last run however was not devoid of promise and is looking dangerously handicapped on old form.
Lough salt and Brian Bohana are another two who come here in decent form and cases can be made. I would expect Brian Bohana to drift out from 4/1, but its certainly not a lay at those sort of prices.
Suggestions & Plays:- With the prices the way they are at the minute, I'd be tempted to have a nibble at Cadouff , but with the bookmakers priced up to around the 120% mark a lot of these will have to drift. I would hope some value would develop on either forty crown or Cracking Find and have two horses in the race. No lays in the race.
3:20:- Treaty Girl 11/4, Conquer Gold 3/1, Two smoking Barrels 3/1, Actinpieces 5/1, 16/1 bar
Interesting race this with some upwardly mobile mares going at it. I shall start with my favourite in Treaty Girl, who has been taking on the boys and is really overpriced in my opinion. Her last run was in an ultra competitive handicap behind potters cross at Newbury, this constitutes a drop in class , the only concern would be the ground.
Two smoking barrels is in great form but a 7lb penalty for her last win seemed on the harsh side to me , especially re-opposing Conquer Gold who was beaten 4l's and receives a 8lb pull at the weights which is extremely fair, especially if she learns as last time was Conquer Golds first race over fences. Im not sure Actinpieces is that well handicapped based on her novice chasing exploits, but has won in similar conditions so is not discounted.
Suggestions & plays:- I'm certainly a backer of Treaty Girl @ 9/2 and I would expect her to shorten up before the race. Conquer Gold on simply a weights and measure argument is worth backing at 5/1 and I can see that shortening. No lays in race.
3:35:- Black Narcissus 5/2, Proud Gamble 7/2, Incholm 9/2, Tommy Rascal 11/2, Lord Landen 10/1 16/1 bar
Black Narcissus is the pick on the form in my opinion, I really think he has to go off favourite. He's down in class here and has been dropped 2lbs for going close in a better grade, and goes in soft ground. Proud Gamble always seems to run a race, I have a suspicion he's better on a sounder surface but has won in soft ground and was only beaten 4l's in arguably a better ace than this at Musselburgh last time out.
Incholm has some different headgear on this time hoping to have the same effect, but is not the most reliable and is an unknown on the ground. I cant see Tommy Rascal going off favourite and prices of around 9/4 are far too short in my opinion, he's up in class and up 5lbs in the weights.
Suggestion and plays:- I think Black Narcissus will go off favourite so at current prices I would back both Proud gamble and Black Narcissus (expecting it to shorten so overback and lay some back enhancing your own price). If your a layer, I think Tommy Rascal is worth taking on at around the 3.5 mark on the exchange.
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