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Twiston-Davies: Is there still value?

Over the years we have suggested backing the Twiston-Davies runners during the autumn months, and in particular October where we felt it could deliver a profit.

Generally speaking, year in and year out the yards National Hunt runners (yes there are a handful of flat runners), hit the ground running once the “true” National Hunt season gets into its full swing.

Twister-Time used to be the months of September and October, but as soon as you find an angle the rest of the world is quickly on your heels and the perceived value has gone!

You can’t ignore the fact that since 2008, ten of the last fourteen years would have given you a profit (even at Industry Starting Prices) had you back the Twiston-Davies National Hunt runners blindly during September and October.

You’d be up over 100 points to ISP and almost 360 points to BFSP.

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And of the four losing years the worst without a doubt was in 2020 when you would have lost almost 50 points, with 2011 losing almost 12 points (a more manageable figure).

So, what if after a couple of poor years people have lost faith with Twister-Time and have decided that the value has all been eroded away?

What if, all those who were hot on the heels of profit, have run away with their tails between their legs in fear?

What if, the time has come for Twister-Time to find a second wind?

No stable can be expected to produce a profit year in year out, that in itself is not sustainable, but after a couple of poor years can we be optimistic that a turn of fortunes may be around the corner?

The strike rate of just 9% in 2020 is very out of character for the stable but those were difficult times, and it has taken time to build back to the normal day to day yard routines since COVID.

Move to 2021 and although overall the year ended in a loss, October and November produced a profit, indeed with strike rates back up in the region of 20.00%+.

November’s profit was enhanced by a 40/1 winner (Rocco), but it is promising to see a possible return to previous autumn form. In addition, we are looking at ALL runners from the stable and in the past we have looked specifically at particular race types.

Historically we have turned toward his Novice runners, but 2021 was a poor affair for the yard with these runners, and interestingly the older and more mature handicap runners offered the better strike rate.

That said you would have made a small profit had you backed all aged Handicap runners even allowing for the 40/1 shot.

Looking at the full set of data back to 2008, December is definitely a month where things cool off considerably with just three years in the past fourteen having produced a profit.

And it does seem that last year the stable didn’t hit the ground running quite so hard with just one of their 13 handicap runners hitting the frame during the month of September, but since 2008 there have been eight years from the 14 where September has turned a profit of some kind, however small.

It would be churlish of us to cast aside the month of September as a chance of being a profitable month as the stable may well return to their “known” form at the start of the National Hunt season proper.

And you just know that if we don’t follow his runners this time around they’ll win!

The last two years may well reflect badly to many punters on the Twiston-Davies yard, but we have a feeling that maybe, just maybe, there can be a return to form, and that other punters may pass the yard by thinking all available value has been removed.

It’s a long shot, yes, but aren’t most of the bets we make?

Isn’t that what we are always hoping for….to the land the big one!

System 15 (JO-94-15-09-22-OCP): Back Handicap runners from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard during the months of September through to November.