June 24, 2020

A Q and A with Guy Ward of Mathematician Betting

Hi Guy, and many thanks for joining us this month, first off would you start by telling our readers a little about Mathematician Betting, yourself and your background?

Thanks I appreciate the interest.

Knocking on a bit now aged 54.

Now in my 20th year of the service.

Have to see myself as a veteran.

London born now out in the sticks.

Haven't decided if I like this or not.

Lots of spreading pig muck up here.

The wife can't put her washing out.

They don't tell us that on Emmerdale.

As you get older you change a lot.

Bit of a loner partially by choice.

We rarely go out or see any friends.

Working alone and being around here.

Makes you quite eccentric at times.

Like to sit back and watch the world.

Rather than participate in it these days.

Would you say that you have a “typical” working day, and how would you describe it?

My routine is extremely strange.

I get up every day around 3am to do final preparations on my 10 am racing analysis message for clients.

Not being heroic but I love doing this.

I often take a few half hour cat naps too. When I'm tired I roll from office to bed.

Some days I nip out for bits and bobs but lockdown has taken away the joy of that of late.

I spend the day working on the racing whilst researching other topics I like.

The standard answer is “finding winners”

But the main priority in this household, don't get the house dirty before she’s home as any domestic drama is not a good idea.

Keep myself out of harm's way then study, if she is happy I can do anything I need to.

Not having kids allows me lots of freedom.

What do you think of the world of sports tipping in general and what do you think people are in search of when it comes to their hunt for a successful tipster?

Sports Tipping is growing all the time. And I don't know what’s out there now I don't follow the industry much these days.

I know experience is extremely important and having no kids has helped me a lot.

Anyone who has kids and little experience will struggle to survive in this industry.

Don't want to say my competitors are rip offs. There may be some much smarter than me! If they survive then good luck to them all.

When searching for a tipster, some say a Profit is all they want.

Most say that and all tipsters claim that but each member will have different ideals.

Some like to receive a strong opinion that is based on evidence and facts but they also like to have enough room to take a different view if they choose and to develop their own bets and style.

People want an honest service.

For some it is as simple as companionship.

When the message comes in their mailbox it may be the only thing they have to enjoy.

They often want to belong to something.

We win together, we lose together.

Win and celebrate, lose and mourn together

All losers softened and winners sweetened just because we did them all together.

Do you regularly bet yourself? What style of approach do you take to your betting? What do you think of staking plans, loss retrieval systems etc.?

Complicated question.

Whatever I tip in the message takes priority over everything else. Even if I have backed something else. Because it drifted or I missed the price.

The service bet is the only thing I want.

I have a lot of small stake boredom bets.

I really don't care if these win or lose.  

Do not enjoy watching racing anyway.

The bets I like best personally? Ante Post multiples playing up stakes, I love picking a bet a few months away. Spend weeks building money up on them.

I like to stake much harder on these bets.

Did that last year, Spain in the Davis Cup

Told clients I was doing it 6 months before. Because of a rule change few knew about. Big important win for me so treated myself. Now have 2 Rafa Nadal mugs in the kitchen!

Did the same the year before as well. Backed Salford City each way when 3rd

I got more enjoyment out of both bets than any other bet I had in those years.

Find pleasure in these longer term bets. They buy hope and allow you to dream.

Where else in life can you purchase hope?

Staking plans do not interest me, I feel they are flawed and over promoted. Taught to us by people who don't win. Find they just restrict people’s progress. Anything in the “must do” book is wrong.

Most people don't know what’s important. And have no idea how to price a race up.

Unless you know the most important factor. You are picking fruits off a poisonous tree. 

Could be wrong but don't waste your time

What attracted you to the world of horse racing and what do you enjoy most about the sport?

My dad took me as a kid. My first bet also won back in 1984. That’s often what hooks a lot of people. I don't enjoy much about if these days.

It is an intellectual challenge little more. No better feeling than winning for others, but the day the service does not exist I would happily go weeks without a bet.

I don't get much pleasure out of racing

What led you into the world of racing tipsters and what do you feel you can offer racing enthusiasts and punters that other tipsters can’t?

Spent many hours in betting shops. Enjoying life as a kid with no ambition.

My best mate was a very smart punter. Then got a chance to work for a tipster I learnt from the mistakes they made.

I won a few internet tipping competitions

Started a service with just 12 members, Mick my admin partner was watching us. Offered to professionalise the service.

Probably about 1992 and I agreed to it. Then all of a sudden you are 20yrs older.

Ours is a detailed and honest service, Does not need to be the detail it is. But it proves the work has been done.

If a member isn't happy and he leaves he knows I'm not on some golf course.

One thing we do offer that others do not is produce statistics that nobody else does.

These are all historically accurate. Can be checked and proven by anyone. Nobody else in the industry does this. We offer angles nobody has thought of.

Sounds a bold claim but it really isn't. It is not hard you just think differently.

I take great pleasure from finding these and it happens regularly each week.

The secret is a partner who graces me with the free time to study.

Not having any children or family helps.

I'm paid to toil to find these angles for clients who can then enjoy a more normal life themselves.

What traits do you think a good racing tipster should possess and what do you think the average punter is looking for from a tipping service?

Already answered some of this. Just work hard and be honest. Understand why you make mistakes. Be prepared to admit to the members.

Experience is a vital ingredient. If you are assessing a horse you don't know. Look at it like meeting a stranger in the street.

You have first impressions on that first meeting but if you originally knew their parents well and you also knew their grandparents too, you will have a better understanding of the stranger.

I can do that now after 20 years doing this job. I remember the career of a horse’s sire and dam. And the Sires and Dams that produced them too.

New and old punters alike can struggle to make a success of their betting. If you could give them just one piece of advice to improve their profitability what would it be?

Hard to say there is one piece of advice, Watch as many races as you can stomach. Work hard at developing your own research.

Depends on how people want to stake. If you are serious about it then do it properly. Cut back in your private spending to bet. Why waste money on that morning coffee. Stop buying the daily propaganda paper.

These things can subsidise your betting.

But you have asked for one bit of advice. Understand there are vested interests, who have an interest in you not winning.

Market movers are very often dishonest.

Most industry lifers are incapable of winning.

Pundits, journalists, jockeys and trainers.

Beware the tipster industrial complex. Half are crooks, many more are incapable

But there are a few good ones out there. Don't believe the trade paper is your friend. It is a big club and we are not any part of it.

What would you consider to be a highlight of your racing experience to date? Do you have any personal racing / betting experiences which when reflecting back brings a smile, or for that matter any which bring a grimace; you can share with our readers?

My highlight is that I have a job from racing. As I am otherwise simply unemployable.

Dancing Brave in the Derby. Was probably my first real grimace.

Syndicating a horse once was horrible. Told me how little I knew about racing.

Like I said earlier my best enjoyment comes from longer term ante post bets I rarely officially tip them but regularly tell members of how and why I have invested personal cash.

Spain in the Davis Cup last year was a big win.

I cannot describe the pleasure that gave me

Took a train down to London had the bet

Never once regretted it and now the wife has fallen truly madly deeply with Rafa Nadal.

Rule The World at 50/1 in the Grand National was one of my favourite ever winning tips.

Assuming all things are normal next year and the season does not get compromised, Salford City each way might be another.

Bindaree's Welsh National victory was a huge part of the service’s success.

The membership trebled overnight. We went from a small venue service to a big stadium service overnight

As a kid I was a burglar.

What I am about to say is very true.

There was a betting office in Derbyshire run by a man who was just clueless.

We went in there before the 5 Nations Rugby. England were only 5/4 to win the Grand Slam. We had doubles and a treble on England.

England to win the Grand Slam – England to win the Triple Crown – England to win the Championship

Obviously if they won the Grand Slam they had won all the others by default.

Won plenty of money and felt so smart, but it was a dirty trick and we were young.

Nowadays I would not do that to the bloke!

You go from being a burgling wide boy to being an older, wiser, kinder person but working for myself and from home has to be the main highlight of all of it.

What about the gambling industry, is there anything you like to see changed there? Many website forums are full of criticisms of the bookmakers and their treatment of their customers? Is this something you have an opinion on?

I don't care about racing politics.

Keep the whip or ban the whip

Get on with it and don’t bore me.

Why bother criticising the bookmakers.

Better off doing that to central bankers.

Save your sympathy for the homeless I say.

I only have so much ram in my head.

I am not wasting it on things I can’t change.

If a member read the epitaph at my funeral and said the standard of bets went downhill but that I was a great advocate for racing, I would be turning in my grave I'd rather he said the last bet won and I didn't care about the industry.

Fight the battles you know you can win

What do you do to relax and unwind? What interests have you outside the world of horse racing?

Not many interests. Very few friends and a quiet life. I hate going out and detest holidays.

The Duchess hates it when I tell her that I am at my happiest in a deep sleep.

I do the cooking, she does the cleaning. Really enjoy any high class television/

I love watching Bitcoin’s progress.

Twitter is one of my great pleasures, I never ever tweet just follow people. Mainly in Racing and financial matters.

I like to upset friends and family with bits of propaganda on WhatsApp. It pains me they can't see what I can.

Mind you they could say the same to me, I am on Trump to win in November at 11/8. Thinking it was money for old rope!

Now it's turned into a Black Swan year

Corona

Lockdown

Recession

Depressions

Financial Markets on the brink!

Identity politics

Riots

Didn't see all that coming

And if he loses after all that I won't look as clever as I hoped!


If you would like to join Guy at Mathematician Betting we have a special offer for On Course Profits readers – https://www.oncourseprofits.com/mathoffer

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Steve Carter

Steve Carter is the Associate Editor of On Course Profits magazine. He has relied on his betting skills and knowledge for his income for the past 15+ years. He specialises in horse racing and football betting & trading and knows what it takes to make a living from betting. He is always looking for new angles for himself and On Course Profits readers.

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