Backing Multiples – A ‘Mug’s Game’?
I have said before and repeat again here that backing in multiples is just as valid a staking method as singles. The math’s work out the same except, of course, the strike rate goes down and so, therefore, must the unit stake.
E.g., you have two even money winners. In the one case you bet £1 single win on each so your return is £4, giving a profit of £2 on the two bets. If both win you have made £2 on your outlay of £2. This should happen just short of 50% of the time allowing for the bookies' overround.
In case 2, you back the same two horses £2 win double. This pays a return of £8, i.e., double that of the first method for the same outlay.
However, two will win 25% of the time (50% overall strike rate = 0.5, multiply this by itself and you get 0.25, or 25%), whereas one will win 50% of the time.
Therefore, you get paid twice as much for the same stake on a double, (and this works with all prices), but, in this case, it is only half as probable, so it works out exactly the same in the long term. So, you can either win 25% at 3/1 or 50% at Evs. In both cases you will break even.
Obviously, you need to adjust your stake to a quarter of that of your singles as your strike rate has reduced So, instead of a ten pounds win single that returns twenty pounds, (10 profit), you would stake 3.33 to make the same profit (3.33 x evens = 6.66 onto the second winning leg at evens = 13.32 returns minus the 3,33 stakes = 12.99.
Sorry for the immediate math’s lesson but there is something of a prejudice against backing multiples.
It is perfectly understandable. After all, the bookies have special slips for Yankees, Canadians etc. and they wouldn’t do this if it wasn’t in their interest. You never, for example, see a special slip for a Round Robin.
Now I would not back Yankees etc. I stopped years ago when our old mate Eric – who wasn’t great at picking winners but was a wizard when it came to staking – assured me I wouldn’t be kicking myself every time I got 3 winners if I just covered the 6 doubles and the acca.
And you know what? He was right – I don’t ever remember that happening over the 30 years since I took that advice.
As he pointed out, the reason the bookies love these bets is that, to take the Yankee again, if the first one goes down you have lost 7 of your 11 bets!
So, while I agree that, on the day, a Yankee isn’t usually a good choice, (although it is if all 4 come up – though even then you would have done better doubling the stake on the 4-fold acca!), you should still, in the long term, make the same percentage profit or loss as you would betting singles.
Yes, you can argue they might not fall right, you will miss the odd 10/1 sole winner in the bet. But, again, long term and as shown with the above example with 50% even money shots, the same point holds – distribution will scatter them so they perform just the same….in the long run.
But, as our mate also said, “in the long run we are all dead”
Sorry if I seem to be labouring the point but it does seem to me that the recession, depression, slump, stagnation – call it what you will – has made this more than just an academic question. And now we have Covid and all the economic fallout from that too.
In these times, how many ordinary punters can take the advice offered in the past by many (us included), to set aside for a betting bank, money for betting only etc. etc.? That must sound like mockery to some now!
The truth is that the majority of punters are backing out of their pockets. They perhaps always were but even serious backers are doing the same now. Why? Because they simply don’t have the money to operate a betting bank any more. How many do?
The other thing that has changed, or rather exacerbated, is that more are looking for the big win. We can talk to you about LSP’s, ROI’s, POT’s, till we are blue in the face, but you want – truth be told we all want – that one big win that would make you financially independent. Or at least take the pressure off.
With all of the above in mind we can do one of two things. We can either exhort you to patience and discipline or we can, try to help you in your quest for a big win.
I won’t bore those of you who have seen my £20K winning acca too often but that is what I think we are all striving for and we have had a couple of very near misses for 40 and 50 Grand wins since.
However, to achieve this you need good selections and sensible staking. We can help you with both these things. But, making this the aim and acting accordingly doesn’t dispense with the need for patience and discipline.
These big wins don’t come around often. What you need to make sure of, as I did on my big win day, is that you are there when they do come along. You have to be still in the game. And you won’t be if you throw the towel in after some inevitable losing run.
Now that the goal is set it is time to discuss how to achieve it. A lot depends on how many selections there are on the day. At the prices we generally back, we would need 7 or 8 winners to strike it big so, if there are 8 or less selections, we will back them in doubles and an accumulator, without any vetting.
For the reasons discussed above we don’t try to cover the full perm as that would cost us a fortune. For example, to cover all the doubles trebles etc. etc. for 8 runners would cost £247 to £1 unit stakes.
Yes, (and it has happened a fair few times), you may get 6 winners from 8 and then wish you had covered the 6-fold but, trust me, it is almost certain you would have gone bust by then trying to cover all the perms each time.
Also, don’t forget, you would have the winnings from 15 doubles for the 6 winners. This is the main idea of this staking. If you get all the lot up, great, you have a lot more options than you had before. If you fall short, as you almost always will, the doubles keep you in the game. I don’t want you to think you must have a minimum 8 though. If there are only 5 on a certain day, then it is 10 doubles and an acca. We never make the numbers up.
Once we have the vetted selections, we are good to go.
John – The Punters Pal
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We will let readers know when John’s book is published and if we get the opportunity to share more chapters we will.
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