Doncaster Racecourse Template – 22nd October

The oldest classic horse race, Doncaster St Leger

The Racing Horse offers their powerful and factual Doncaster Racecourse Template for Friday 22 October 2021 where they have lots of pertinent numbers collated on one page. 

There is an 8-race card including 6 handicaps and 2 maiden races.

The going is expected to be soft.

FAVOURITES: Overall winning favourites at Doncaster show 276-773 for 35.71% and a level stake loss of -35.01 so above the national average! Juvenile favourites in non-handicaps show 105-235 for 45% and make a tiny loss to level stakes of -0.63, so good housekeeping could have improved those figures substantially and produced a profit. Worst category is the 4yos+ in handicaps showing 65-256 for 25% (-39.52) which is considerably below the national average.

TRAINERS: Unlikely Mark Johnston will score with his 2 runners but our leader board trainers have strong entries, they include top trainer at the course Roger Varian 2. Richard Hannon runs 5 and William Haggas 4. Other trainers of interest are J &T Gosden 4 and Andrew Balding 2. These 5 trainers look likely to dominate proceedings.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

TRAINER COLD LIST: There are two names on the list who should not be there for too much longer. David Menuisier (12%) is now 0-43 (53 days) and Stuart Williams (12%) 0-35 (37 days) and we expect the latter to score soon on the AW surface, so one to watch out for.

JOCKEYS: Ryan Moore has 6 interesting rides and almost certain to be amongst the winners and will probably be top jockey on the day. William Buick has 5, Oisin Murphy 6 but Hollie Doyle has 7 rides. These 4 jockeys will ride most of the winners at this meeting! Andrea Atzeni used to be the jockey for Doncaster with rates of 22%, 20% and 32% within the last 5 years but his last 2 years have shown 16% and last year just 8%. The sparkle has gone – or has it? He has 4 rides tomorrow.

OWNERS: Godolphin only have 1 entry in HEART OF SUMMER 1.30 and trained by Saeed bin Suroor. Charlie Appleby has no runners. Just to remind ourselves the team are 25% at the course (+0.84) over the past 5 years. Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has 2 interesting runners and King Power Racing 1.

1.00
OH HERBERTS REIGN (R Hannon) – trainer has won 2 of the last 4 runnings, Ryan Moore 23% at Doncaster – Won 16/5

1.30
RUMOURMONGER (I Furtado) – formerly with M Meade, drops from Class 3 to Class 5 – NR
AIMING HIGH (D Simcock) – drops from Class 3 to Class 5, first time blinkers – NR
NASHWA & ONE EVENING (J & T Gosden) – trainer show profit of £16.08 with debutants – NR & unpl 3/1

2.05
AMPLE POWER (T Dascombe) – drops from Class 2 to Class 5, first time blinkers – unpl 22/1
VELAZQUEZ (J & T Gosden) – drops from Class 2 to Class 5 – 4th 5/2
MEDRARA (R Varian) – trainer has won both of the last 2 runnings – unpl 8/1

2.40
AIR RAID (J O'Keefe) – beaten favourite last time out – unpl 9/2
CHARIMANOFTHEBOARD (M Channon) – winner in last 7 days, William Buick rides – 4th 10/3

3.15
FAVOURITE MOON (W Haggas) – hot trainer operating at 26%, Ryan Moore is 23% at Doncaster – 3rd 11/10
NOT SO SLEEPY (H Morrison) – beaten favourite last time out – 2nd 5/1

3.50
BUXTED TOO (I Williams) – beaten favourite last time out – unpl 10/1
KOLISI & TITIAN (W Haggas) – former is beaten favourite last time out, first time blinkers and Hollie Doyle rides. Hot trainer operating at 26%. Ryan Moore (23%) rides latter – 2nd 11/2 & Won 7/2

4.25
KENTUCKY KITTEN (T Easterby) – trainer shows profit of £14.27 with horses running under a penalty, William Buick rides – unpl 13/2
AMY BEACH (M Channon) – drops from Class 3 to Class 5 – unpl 14/1
REWIRED (D Menuisier) – trainer currently 0-41, first time blinkers, Ryan Moore rides and is 23% at the course – 2nd 5/1

4.55
PRECISELY (J Butler) – trainer shows profit of £10.79 with favourites – unpl 9/2
MUSTAZEED (C Wall) – beaten favourite last time out – Won 10/3
AONE ALLY (L Russell) – longest traveller 250 miles, Oisin Murphy rides – 2nd 6/1
JUST HISS (T Easterby) – drops from Class 2 to Class 5 – unpl 10/1

Just a few more words.

We note J & T Gosden are 2% down from their historical 24% striking rate and of some significance. We would suggest a change of emphasis has taken place. However, Doncaster is a course they have beaten their early national average of 22% and currently show 12-39 for 31% (+8.44) so +9%.

They are more likely than not in securing a winner tomorrow.

Best trainer at the course this year is Charlie Hills 6-14 for 43% (+27.75). He has no runners tomorrow but has an interest on Saturday!

Jim Goldie (9%) is on a losing run of 30 yet brings 4 to the course Friday (3) and Saturday (1). All four are longshots.

NATIONAL AVERAGE

Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 6 Trainers at Doncaster show their national averages over the past 5 years.

Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position, not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success.

The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.

JASON WEAVER – DONCASTER RACECOURSE

There are not many fairer courses than Doncaster, which is a lovely, virtually flat, galloping track. You do climb briefly, up and over Rose Hill, but, for the most part, it’s beautifully smooth to ride, a good, solid test of a horse. There can be one or two hard-luck stories, especially on the round course, when lots of runners are still in contention late on, and that’s where jockeyship comes in. I liked to be on the stands’ side on the straight course, but either side is fine, just as long as you’re not far off a rail.

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.