The Racing Horse offers their powerful Doncaster Racecourse Template for Saturday 11 September 2021 (template does not include Friday's Racing). There is a 7-race card with 4 Handicaps and 3 Group races.
The going is expected to be good to firm.
COURSE – Left-handed, galloping. One of the fairest courses in the country, essentially flat with the exception of a slight uphill gradient about a 1¼m from the finish. Races between 5f and 1m are run on the straight course, though there is also a round mile start on an off-shoot of the round course. It is a free-draining course, underfoot conditions only occasionally being soft/heavy.
FAVOURITES – Juvenile favourites in non-handicaps show 102-226 for 45% and make a profit to level stakes of +2.55, so good housekeeping could have improved those figures substantially. Worst category is the 4yos+ in handicaps showing 64-253 for 25% (-43.02)
TRAINERS – Roger Varian is the top trainer at the track and has 5 entries and almost certain to land a winner! Between them Irish trainers J Murtagh & A P O'Brien are currently 0-50, sure this losing run will be broken by at least one of them?
JOCKEYS – William Buick has 6 rides whilst Oisin Murphy has 3. There must be winners amongst those 9 rides.
OWNERS – Godolphin have 4 runners and should score.
1.15 – FALL OF ROME (C Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, first time cheek pieces, hot trainer and scores at 27% with horses 7f-10f. William Buick rides. LA PULGA (R Charlton) beaten favourite last time out
MAGIC WARRIOR (R Hannon) beaten favourite last time out
1.45 – MONDAMMEJ (A Brittain) winner in last 7 days. PREMIER POWER (R Varian) trainer 24% at course, Oisin Murphy rides.
2.20 – LUSAIL (Richard Hannon) Stable has won 5 of the last 10 Champagne Stakes. REACH FOR THE MOON (J & T Gosden) Hot trainer, only runner, Frankie Dettori 40% on winning favourites.
3.00 – LANEQASH (R Varian) trainer 24% at the course. GLORIOUS JOURNEY & D'BAI (C Appleby) hot trainer and scores at 27% with horses 7f-10f, William Buick rides former.
3.35 – HURRICANE LAND (C Appleby) hot trainer, William Buick at 38% on winning favourites. HIGH DEFINITION (A P O'Brien) beaten favourite last time out, first time cheek pieces, Frankie Dettori.
4.05 – TITLE (R Varian) trainer 24% at the course, 21% strike rate with horses 10f+ and 20% with handicap debutants.
5.10 – PYTHAGORAS (R Fahey) beaten favourite last time out. ROYAL FLEET (C Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides. RAADOBARG (R Varian) trainer 24% at the course.
Pertinent trends for the Group Races
2.20: Champagne Stakes (Group 2) 7f
12/12: At least 1 previous win that season (100%)
10/12: At least 2 previous flat runs (83%)
10/12: Previously won over 7f (83%)
10/12: Raced within last 49 days (83%)
..8/12: Winning favourites/joint favourites (67%)
..7/12: Rated 103 or higher (5/12 not rated) (58%)
3.00: Park Stakes (Group 2) 7f
12/12: At least 1 win in a Group 1-3 race (100%)
10/12: At least 3 runs that season (83%)
10/12: At least 5 previous wins (83%)
10/12: Rated 110 or higher (83%)
10/12: At least 1 previous run over 7f (83%)
10/12: At least 1 previous win over 7f (83%)
..9/12: Aged 4yo or older (75%)
..9/12: Raced within last 46 days (75%)
3.35: St Leger Stakes (Group 1) 1m6f115y
12/12: At least 3 runs that season (100%)
12/12: At least 2 previous flat wins (100%)
11/12: At least 1 win that season
11/12: At least 4 previous flat run
10/12: Placed on last run before the St Leger (83%)
..9/12: Ran within 65 days (75%)
..9/12: Rated 110 or higher (75%)
..8/12: At least 1 previous win in Group 1-3 race (67%)
..8/12: At least 4 runs that season (67%)
..8/12: At least 2 wins that season (67%)
Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Goodwood show their national averages over the past 5 years.
Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position, not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.
Jason Weaver / Doncaster Racecourse
“There are not many fairer courses than Doncaster, which is a lovely, virtually flat, galloping track. You do climb briefly, up and over Rose Hill, but, for the most part, it’s beautifully smooth to ride, a good, solid test of a horse. There can be one or two hard-luck stories, especially on the round course, when lots of runners are still in contention late on, and that’s where jockeyship comes in. I liked to be on the stands’ side on the straight course, but either side is fine, just as long as you’re not far off a rail.”
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse