Find the Winner In The Most Difficult of Races!
From the desk of: Andrew David
When I’m at a loose end I always like to set myself challenges to see if I can find the winner in all sorts of events with many possible outcomes. Why? Well because I’m bonkers and need constant treatment!!
Seriously though, my family has always had this theory – start with the hardest of challenges and then what you originally set out to do will seem a whole lot easier.
Let me explain.
I was taught to swim in between the deep and shallow end of my local pool. Then after many struggles and gallons of swallowed chlorine later I managed to hold my own and tread water. I was then introduced to the shallow end which I found a doddle in comparison to where I had learnt. So the initial struggle made the whole process a lot easier than if I were to start in the shallow end and then work up to the deep end. Strange logic but it worked for me! Especially when I then started swimming at school and was months ahead of the others.
It’s a philosophy that I have taken with me through life, cut the hardest part of the lawn first, then you have the easiest bit left to do. I even took it to the gambling arena and always tried to crack the tough races first and then the more reliable type of races proved easier to evaluate in comparison. Try it, it works!
Anyway back to finding the winner in a difficult race for when racing gets back to some sort of normality…
Below is an ‘8’ runner handicap with the price of six of the runners all around the same mark. Even the two outsiders are not far behind in price, so on paper a real devil of a race to fathom out.
But I will give it a go by using my experience of market observation which is possible with Betfair’s markets (the odd market manipulator aside of course).
First off take a screenshot if you can of any race where the odds are all very close together and ensure it has no more than 9 RUNNERS.
Take the first screenshot ONE HOUR before the race is due off as below;
Let’s Try & Work This One Out!…
So having taken the first screenshot ONE hour before the race is due off (as above), you then take another around 10 minutes before the race off time, as below;
Next we line the two screenshots up side by side or just go through each of the runners one by one looking for the following;
1). We check to see which selection out of all the runners has become favourite (if any). It has to be market leader at the time of taking your second screenshot around 10 minutes before the race off time. Don’t worry what happens after. Put simply, whatever is favourite 10 minutes before the off will be our first selection ALWAYS whether its contracted or drifted in price.
Looking at our example, the second screenshot showsthat BRAVE EAGLE hasmade it to market leader and thus is our FIRST selection
2). The second selection will be the horse that has contracted in price the MOST between taking these two screenshots.
Now lets go through the rest of the runners to find our second qualifier;
They are;
Huntsmans Son: from 6.2 to 6.8 – Price has drifted so scratch that one!
Diable De Sivola: from 6.6 to 6.0 – Price has contracted by 3 clicks (3 x 0.2 units) Can be considered?
Copper West: 6.2 to 6.6 – Price has drifted so scratch that one!
Wilde Blue Yonder: 8.0 to 8.8 – Price has drifted so scratch that one!
Cap Du Nord: 6.8 to 9.2 – Price has drifted so scratch that one!
Tanarpino: 13.5 to 11 – Price has contracted by 5 clicks (5 x 0.5 units) Can be considered?
Aintree My Dream: – 20 to 18.5 – Price has contracted by 3 clicks (3 x 0.5 units) Can be considered?
Out of the above runners Tanarpino has contracted by 5 clicks so becomes our second and final selection.
To Sum Up
What we are looking for from the two screenshots taken at different time intervals is;
Any horse that has now become clear favourite.
The horse that has contracted in price the MOST Between the 10 minute time interval before the race off.
On that basis our two selections are:
- Brave Eagle
- Tanarpino
We then place a ‘1’ point win on each.
Result:
Brave Eagle – 1st Betfair SP of 6.49!
Tanarpino – Unplaced (but don’t let that put you off as you will get your fair share of winners from the second choice.
So far I’ve bet in 50 races with 20 winners and a Level stake profit of 43pts!
Give it a try to very small stakes and see how you get on as soon as racing is back under starters orders that’s if it has not done so already!
Until next time!
All the best
Andrew David
Featured image: (CC BY 4.0) – https://www.flickr.com/photos/kanegen