Future Race Pointers
In this article I am revisiting an idea I have looked at in two or three previous articles spanning the last 12 years or so. However, I am going into more depth than before and going back much further in time as well.
Racing Pointers
I am going to look at how horses performed next time out after running in certain big races.
There are numerous reasons why this data is useful to look into. Firstly, some horses can only peak for short periods and hence those that do indeed peak for a particular race may not be able to reproduce that level of form next time out.
Another reason, and an important one at that, is that some horses that compete in such big races are just out of their depth, and hence if they have a less competitive race to contest next time, they may run well at a potentially good price. They may be under-estimated by the betting public simply because they were well beaten on their latest start. Anyway, these are just two ideas I have had, so let’s start crunching some numbers.
For this piece we are looking at data from January 1st, 1997, to June 18th, 2022, so we have plenty of past race stats to crunch. Profit and loss figures are to Industry Starting Price as we are going back before Betfair actually existed. Hence you would expect to improve on the bottom line figures if you had used Betfair SP in the last 15 years or so.
I will be reporting to £1 level stakes.
With the Glorious Goodwood meeting having just finished, it makes sense to look at some races from there to begin with and see how horses have fared in the past on their very next start. The three I am going to look at are the Sussex Stakes, the Stewards Cup, and the Molecombe Stakes. Of course, the past results I am sharing with you are just that; one would hope any trends or patterns will continue in future years but there is no guarantee.
Sussex Stakes
This is one of the real highlights of the Goodwood meeting held on the second day of the meeting (Wednesday). It is a race that the great Frankel won twice in 2011 and 2012.
This is a Group 1 race, and it is raced over a distance of 1 mile.
Horses that ran in the Sussex Stakes have the following overall record in their next race:
Horses that won the Sussex Stakes went onto make a profit on their start to the tune of 6 pence in the £. If we expand that to those that finished in the first three, then they actually combined to make a loss of around 10 pence in the £. Horses that finished 4th or worse produced 21 winners from exactly 100 runners (SR 21%) for a small profit of £7.86 (ROI +7.9%).
Runners from this race are definitely worth close scrutiny next time out as they have produced a decent number of winners.
Stewards Cup
This is the big 6f handicap of the meeting which always has huge fields averaging out at around 27 runners. Hence we have plenty of horses to check out on their next start. Here are their follow up run stats combined:
No surprises to see an overall loss on all the runners on their next run, or such a low strike rate.
An amazing stat is that all the winners of the race going back to 1997 have lost on their very next run.
Horses that finished 2nd or 3rd have fared better winning 7 races from 50 runners for a small profit of £5.00 (ROI +10%).
A nugget worth sharing is that horses that contested a Listed race next time produced 10 winners and 14 other placed from 62 runners (SR 16.1%) for a healthy profit of £58.38 (ROI + 94.2%). Indeed, 9 of these 10 winners finished 6th or worse in the Stewards Cup itself and backing those runners only would have secured a profit of £73.38 (ROI + 203.8%).
In general, it seems that you have more chance of turning a profit if you focus on horses that finished 6th or worse in the Goodwood sprint.
Molecombe Stakes
This race is over 5 furlongs and is contested by 2 year olds. Both male and female horses are able to contest this race, and it is a Group 3 contest. Horses that ran in the Molecombe have the following overall record in the next run:
This does not look like a race where we should follow those horses who ran in it. I had expected better figures, but the stats don’t lie.
You definitely want to avoid horses that were upped in Class next time (e.g., Group 1 or 2 level), as these runners managed just 2 wins from 65 attempts. This is a powerful and very poor stat. The only runners that fared OK next time were those that started favourite on this follow up run. 15 of the 42 won, but they still made a small loss.
Moving away from Glorious Goodwood, let me switch my attention to the York Ebor meeting which this year is being held between Wednesday 17th August and Saturday 20th August. There are a host of good races and I have chosen three of them to see how their runners fared next time out.
Melrose Stakes
This race is a handicap race held over 1 mile and 6 furlongs. Horses that ran in this race since 1997 have the following record when looking at their next run:
Losses on all runners of about 8 pence in the £. However, the winners of the Melrose Stakes have been worth following next time out.
They have produced 9 winners from 24 runners (SR 37.5%) for a profit of £13.96 to £1 level stakes. That equates to an impressive return of 58 pence in the £. If you stick to those winners that were favourite on their next start we see that 6 of the 11 went onto win showing a profit of £10.88 (ROI + 98.9%).
Another group of Melrose runners that did well next time were those who returned to the track within 30 days; 42 of the 185 horses won (SR 22.7%) and they would have made you a profit to SP of £39.42 to £1 level stakes. Returns therefore of 21 pence for every £ bet.
Gimcrack Stakes
First run back in 1846 this race is named after an 18th century horse called Gimcrack.
It is a Group 2 contest run over 6 furlongs and is open to 2 year old colts or geldings only.
Horses that ran in this race produced the following results next time out:
An impressive set of figures here – reasonable strike rate and a sound profit.
The Gimcrack always attracts a field of promising youngsters and many of them seem to deliver on their next start. Winners of the Gimcrack have gone onto win 6 races from 25 (SR 24%) on their follow up run for a small £5.71 profit.
90 horses that have raced in the Gimcrack went on to contest a Group 1 or 2 contest next time out – of those 15 won producing a healthy profit of £56.46 (ROI + 62.7%).
Finally, horses that started favourite next time have done quite well winning 14 races from 38 (SR 36.8%) for a profit of £6.79 (ROI + 17.9%).
Great Voltigeur Stakes
This race is run over 1 mile and 4 furlongs and is for 3 year olds only. It is a Group 2 contest.
Horses that ran in the Great Voltigeur have the following overall record in the next run:
These runners have made a small combined loss on their next run, but those that started favourite next time have won 12 of the 30 races contested (SR 40%) for a small profit of £5.59.
Winners of the Great Voltigeur have managed to follow up on 6 occasions from 25 runners (SR 24%), but you would have made a loss backing them to the tune of £6.16 (ROI -25.7%). Horses that came 2nd or 3rd in the York contest have managed to make a profit of £22.50 thanks to 8 winners from 44 runners.
Final stat of interest is that if any of the first three home contested a Group 1 race next time then they would have been worth following – 11 wins from 50 runners (SR 22%) for a profit of £23.09 (ROI + 46.2%).
Quite a mixed bag of next time out results here across the six races, but hopefully this article has given you some useful pointers to how some horses are likely to run later this season.
This type of research can be extended to any race; it doesn’t have to be a Group race or a big handicap. I quite often like looking at Newmarket or Newbury maiden races, especially later in the season, trying to pinpoint horses that may have gone under the radar and look likely to run well next time.
I will revisit this idea again in the near future I’m sure – probably focusing on next time runs after running in a decent National Hunt race.
David Renham
