Lose Less by John Cutts – Part IV
Our next instalment of Lose Less kindly provided by the author, John Cutts.
Early reviews for the book have been very positive with an overall 4 star rating as I type.
If you can’t wait for the next instalment you can get it in paperback or on Kindle here
Chapter 5 – Eric’s Cluster Theory
“In the long run we’re all dead”.
That’s what our staking guru and maths mentor said to me in response to my observation that his new roulette system might not work “in the long run”.
Eric was a 24-carat character.
On the subs during the Second World War, he used to drive all the way from Portsmouth to Scotland the rare times he got back to Britain, to visit his fiancé.
I could write a short book about some of the tales he told me of those days – like when his dentist phobia led to him missing a plane ride that ended in a crash with all killed! Another time maybe.
For now, I would rather concentrate on the wisdom of what he taught.
This bloke had a degree in maths and engineering and, post retirement, he applied them to the cause of beating the bookies and the casino.
He used to virtually live in the casino in between slinking between bookies to get his bets on in the special manner that allowed him to turn losers into non-runners.
Despite being a liability, the casino manager liked Eric (he didn’t play to big stakes – “under the radar” was his motto). One day he challenged the manager to a big bet.
He reckoned he could cover all 37 numbers on the table with 37 chips in such a way that he would make a 1 chip profit no matter what number came up! And if Eric said he could do it – he could do it.
When you consider the whole guaranteed profit for the casino is produced by paying 35/1 on a winning number when the real odds are 36/1 (37 numbers in total including the zero)
Let’s put it this way, the manager never took him up on his challenge.
This was the basis of Eric’s roulette system, but he also applied it to horse racing.
Using probability and a very sneaky (but legal and ethical) trick, he could stake so you turned losers into non-runners.
I will show you how to do that later.
Another of his was, instead of using one betting bank, he would split that bank into 5 or more, his reasoning being that winners would cluster dramatically in one bank and that bank would increase enough to more than make up for the other banks that didn’t do so well or lost. Thanks to clustering.
Most of all it lent itself to backing winning multiples.
We are all familiar with the losing runs, but how many have noticed the winning runs? If losers cluster – so must winners.
It was what inspired me to go for the big win I show in the introduction.
Never mind STOP at a Winner – START at a Winner
Take advantage of those winning clusters and minimise the losing ones.
Just as, if you look at any set of results at, say, even money, you will see, from time to time, double figure losing runs, you will also see double-figure winning runs.
The same goes even for much lower strike rates. As an experiment, try waiting for a winner on your list of selections (horses, dogs, roulette, football, etc – it doesn’t matter).
Only after one has won, back each of the next 3. If there is a winner, go again for 3. If no winner, stop and wait for the next winner then start all over again.
If you keep records, check back. You’ll be amazed how it increases your strike rate and percentage profit.
There are three drawbacks for horse racing though…
1) You must be watching the racing (or at least the results) all afternoon – and evening as well in the Summer! Though you don’t, of course, have to bet all day every day!
2) You greatly reduce your turnover as you are betting in far less races, which means your percentage profit may go up, but your cash profit could go down.
3) Because you are backing race to race, BOG isn’t as big an edge – and it is near impossible to profit backing at ISP.
So, the strike rate will likely rise and the percentage profit too but the cash profit- the actual amount in money – will likely fall as far fewer bets would have been struck.
The simplest way to test the Cluster Theory is to flip a coin for a few minutes and record heads or tails. Choose heads as winners and tails as losers. The cluster theory will jump off the page.
This is the theoretical basis for betting multiples. Winning clusters are inevitable for the same reason as losing ones – distribution in maths language.
But how to use it to our advantage?
Chapter 6 – Selective Betting is For the Rich
Here is the rarely mentioned reason you can’t make your betting pay.
“Money makes money”.
You have to be already well off or win a bank big enough to make a living out of.
To make something approaching the average wage as a pro gambler you would have to turnover around £300K PA.
Why?
You need to turn over your money
To quote the intrepid ex owner of Denman, Harry Findlay: “No punter on the planet wins more than 8% of his turnover.” P11 of Patrick Veitch’s book Public Enemy Number One.
Let’s use 10% profit on stakes, or 110% return on investment (ROI), for ease of maths:
A 300,000 per year turnover would produce £30,000 annual profit.
This would mean staking an average of £5,769 per week, or £822 per day.
To make anything approaching the average wage, using a selective approach, you would need to stake all that £822, on average, every day.
And the bet/s would be on one or a few horses. Imagine putting 822 quid on one horse per day!
Now that IS putting all your eggs in one basket!
Even at a high strike rate, say 50% at odds of even money, it would be wise to have a forty-point bank and 40 x £82 = 32,880
Who has that sort of money to put to one side for a betting bank these days?
Without such a bank you wouldn’t be able to turn over enough money to make a big enough cash profit to earn a substantial income.
Accumulate to speculate
You must win a bank big enough to make a living from before you can even start thinking about making a second income – let alone going pro.
There IS a way though that the small punter can eventually make big bets and thus have the chance of making a living. Turn your money over.
You can do this AND spend less time picking more winners
One of our systems in the portfolio allows us to Zoom in on the races most likely to be won by the form horse.
65% of the top two rated in these races have won over the past 25 years.
No overwhelm!
In those races, we can narrow it down to only the top two rated (never more – no joints or co’s).
Doesn’t it frustrate you when you spend all morning digging out what looks like a good thing only to find the price has gone?
A horse that you fancied and looked vastly over-priced in the betting forecast that has been backed off the boards by the time you try to back it!
Your typical racing day may begin something like this. You will check for clues such as trainer stats, race trends etc. You then use these to narrow the fields down to manageable levels for form study.
By the time you have looked at all these, your first race is half an hour away. You need to hurriedly make your mind up. You have precious little time for form study. You have rather long shortlist and little time to get your bets on and are often distracted.
By now, those over-priced horses you spotted have been discovered by others (not least the bookies).
They are now half the price they were. Very frustrating!
And who gains? That’s right – the bookie. Of course, he has his minions to do all the research for him.
Let ACCU-RATE choose the races
Avoid the bookies’ races. The ones where they offer to pay out on 6 places etc. By all means have some small fun bets on the big handicaps, etc, but save your serious bets for the ACCU-RATE races and the other system bets.
Narrow the field using ACCU-RATE
How would you like your typical racing day to begin with a look at the shortlisted races only? That would be just 3 out of the 36 races today. Then analyse the chances of the top two rated only.
Please note, though there are sometimes joint top rated, there are never more than two named top-rated horses. Unlike the big-name ratings services, there are no long lists of joint and/or co top and second top rated – always just two, never more.
In short: Accu-Rate narrows down dramatically the number of races to look at.
They then narrow down the field to a manageable size to study – just two in fact.
You save a ton of time and suffer much less stress.
Focus your time and attention on those horses most likely to win those races and get on early.
This means you can spend more time thoroughly studying the form, trends, stats between the top two rated in each selected race and can still get on early at Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) without missing the best prices.
In fact, I can have my bets on the night before if the prices are up as I can start studying at around 6 – 7 pm, meaning I can get BOG prices early.
By the way, don’t think that the high strike rate means only short prices either. We have had winners up to 14/1 and regularly get 5/1 winners and thereabouts.
Long winning runs and short losing runs
The high strike rate means more winners which, in turn, means longer winning runs and those frustrating losing runs are shorter. The longest losing run in the 25 years we have been using these ratings is 7 races.
Dutch them
If you get on the night before and use BOG, it is often viable to back each of the two selections by weighting your stake to make a guaranteed profit. Just google “dutching stakes calculator”, there are plenty online.
Bankers for multiple and exotic bets
Also, because of the high strike rate, the winners tend to cluster. These ratings are excellent for use in multiples. You can use either both selections or choose one banker or do full or part permutations.
So, they can be profitably dutched or backed as singles.
You can use them for potentially big multiple pay-outs. If you choose the right races, you can get some very nice pay-outs on the Exactas.
Think outside the box.
There are many ways to use ACCU-RATE Ratings:
Perm them for multiples, as above. You can pick your bankers and, where you can’t split them, put the pair in.
Perfect for exotic bets such as bankers for tri-casts, forecasts etc.
Good bankers for jackpots placepots, the Scoop 6 and the bet to nothing ITV7.
Even if you have no money to bet, you can use them for ITV7.
Another, for layers, is to make sure you are NOT laying these.
So, they can be dutched, backed as singles, for potentially big multiple pay-outs and, if you choose the right races, for some very nice pay-outs on the Exactas or forecasts.
These ratings will produce, on average, 5 or 6 races per day over the year. Though, on busy days like August bank holiday at could be in the teens and on a quiet Sunday it might be just one or two.
Rules For The Accu-Rate System List or mark the races where there are two (no more) horses forecast 3/1 or less in the Racing Post betting forecast and one or both are top on Racing Post ratings. These are the top two Accu-Rate rated. Don't be put off by the simplicity. You will save lots of time and trouble using these to create your daily shortlist. Just watch or back to small stakes to begin with so as to get used to the process.
We will continue our serialisation next month, but if you would like to read the whole book right away you can buy it here