At the time of writing, the new National Hunt campaign is well under way, and we have already experienced the thrills of the opening fixture, The Showcase, at Prestbury Park and the November meeting at Cheltenham is due in a few days’ time.
This time around we are going to delve into the formbook and see which yards have traditionally done well during the final month of the year, December.
We will set the scene by considering the top 20 UK trainers ranked by the number of winners that they saddled during December over the most recent 5 year period: –
Although in a slightly different order the same three stables top the table as they did last time around in November.
What does jump out from that trio is the profit figures achieved by blindly backing the runners from the Nicky Henderson yard over the last 5 Decembers.
Given the high profile of the stable that seems quite surprising so maybe worth taking a closer look: –
The above table shows the breakdown of results for each of the last five years during December and three were well ahead of the game with 2019 level at Betfair SP and only 2016 showing a loss.
How did the different types of National Hunt races pan out?
Clearly the above table points us to follow the Chasers and Hurdlers during the final month of the year.
A 26% Strike Rate from over 400 runners sent to the track is quite a feat and only a couple of bigger priced ones prevailed over that timeline, so…
…Take note of the Henderson runners during the run up to the Festive period this time around, especially when competing over obstacles.
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Featured Image: (CC BY-SA 4.0) – Jaboticaba Chepstow, April 2019