From the Desk of: Andrew David
No, I’m not talking about the SAW the magician of years gone by Paul Daniels used to cut his assistant (and wife) Debbie McGee in half! I’m talking about SAW (Stop At A Winner) staking.
For some it’s what you may call a ‘saw point’ if you excuse the pun but using Stop At A Winner staking is indeed loved by many that use it. So, let’s look at the nuts and crannies of SAW staking in operation using an example;
Let’s say you are backing favourites at odds of 2/1 and are looking to Win a £10 target.
Your first bet would be a stake of £5 at odds of 2/1. If it wins you are finished for the day.
If it loses you look to recover that lost £5 + your £10 aim for the day.
Therefore, your next stake would be £7.50 that at odds of 2/1 would deliver £15. Again, if that wins you are finished for the day.
If it loses you would look to recover £12.50 in lost stakes from the first two bets plus your original £10 aim so a total of £22.50 needs to be won from the next bet staked at 2/1. This would require a stake of £11.25.
You continue to do this until you hit a winner and then reset to starting stakes. The problem is unless you have a decent strike rate stakes can tend to escalate especially when following shortish priced selections. However, there are two potential ways around this that could make SAW work long term.
One was brought to me by a reader who starts on very small stakes aiming to win just £2.50 per cycle with his chosen betting market. Meaning he can go quite a way before his stakes build up which he assures me rarely happens due to a decent long term strike rate.
The second option could be to cap your bets, maybe only SAW up to a maximum of ‘3’ bets and if all are unsuccessful then reset to start. This also works for many who play in the right market with the right strategy.
A nice angle I’ve found is playing in the horse racing place markets with between 4 – 7 runners and backing the second favourite if the odds are around 2.00+. Then only SAW up to 3 bets maximum and reset to start if no winner, and stop whenever you hit a winner in any of those 3 bets. This approach has cleared 16pts in just under two months and so is my favoured option.
Here is an example;
Remember, if the selection is unplaced then we look to recover our lost £8.35 plus our £10 aim for the day on the next qualifier. However, we only do this up to a maximum of 3 bets. If NO winner in three bets we return to starting stake.
Please note: If a race originally had 8 runners and a non runner brings the race down to 7 or less then Betfair will still honour the third payout place albeit at reduced odds so such races can still be used. However, you will find most opportunities will arrive in races that payout on 2 places.
Also try and place your bet around 10 minutes before the race starts.
The above is only a guide and over the coming months I will be looking at other markets and strategies that may be suitable for SAW betting and will relay them to you in forthcoming On Course Profits articles.
Have a bash yourself with small £1 or £2 stakes to start and also look for markets based on a similar ilk above and with enough research you’re bound to hit a nice angle of your own!