Springing Profits From Last Time Out Winners.
Last Time Out Winners is an angle I covered in the October issue of On Course Profits. In that article I dug into the many Last Time Out Winner (LTOW) angles I have plugged into my databases and highlighted a batch of Trainers that do well with their LTOW’s at specific tracks.
For this month’s article I’m going delve into another section of my LTOW portfolio, with this report looking at Trainers and their LTOW figures in specific Months, with the Spring period (March-April-May) the period of the season where my focus will be concentrated upon.
As I mentioned in my previous LTOW article, it goes without saying that some trainers are better than others when it comes to effectively placing their Last Time Out Winners on their next start. It’s hard to identify the exact reason why this happens but I suspect it is down to what the particular trainer does with the horse at home between races (how much work they do or don’t with the winning horse… what sort of recovery program/period they give it…) and then also being able to locate the correct race to give the winning horse the best opportunity to record back to back victories.
I do concentrate on Last Time Out Winner angles with relative frequency on my own Narrowing The Field members service, and again, I have countless LTOW angles plugged into the different databases that I use on an everyday basis.
The vast majority of my LTOW angles are based around specific trainers and some time ago I decided to cross reference those angles with one of the other areas I have deeply focused on in the past – Trainer Monthly Patterns – looking for any angles that could be pulled together to add another string to my punting bow… the following angles are a small selection of that data digging…
…so, let’s get started…
*Stats are taken from 2014 to 2023
Willie Mullins
Who better to start such analysis with than the undoubted king of the National Hunt castle; Mr Willie Mullins…
This is his overall strike-rate with last time out winners during the March, April, and May Period…
Willie Mullins
Overall Last Time Out Winners Stats (March-April-May)
158/621 | 25% S/R | +£96.47 BFLSP – W&P 292/621 | 47% S/R
1% above market expectation
Could probably just stop right there!! But I won’t…
Amazingly that hefty profit figure is not falsely boosted by one massive priced winner… yes, there are a few chunky exchange prices that have accelerated the profits, but ultimately, it’s just sheer consistency of winners from team Mullins that has given the pleasing P&L figure.
Using the overall stats as a rock-solid starting point, here are a couple of Willie Mullins LTOW Spring angles to chew over…
Willie Mullins Spring LTOW Angle #1
Irish National Hunt races
March-April-May
Days Since Last Run (DSLR) 26-75
WON LTO (at odds of 8/1 or less)
…which improves the figures to…
70/183 | 38% S/R | +£142.15 BFLSP – W&P 105/183 | 57% S/R
15% above market expectation
Some super strong stats from Willie Mullins there and his Last Time Out Winners that were relatively well-fancied on their last start (8/1 or less) and that run in Ireland off a break of around 4-7 weeks(ish) have returned some solid profits, indeed only 1 of the last 10 years did the angle NOT return a profit (2022 when it dropped a tiny loss of -£0.61) …
Given there is the small matter of something called The Cheltenham Festival this month (you may have heard of it!) I’ve also got a Willie Mullins Spring LTOW angle that makes use of his horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival last time out… I reset the figures back to the overall Spring LTOW stats first, before then adding in the following filters…
Willie Mullins Spring LTOW Angle #2
Irish National Hunt races
March-April-May
3-5 starts in the current season.
WON at the Cheltenham Festival LTO
…which gives figures of…
24/39 | 62% S/R | +£21.22 BFLSP – W&P 33/39 | 85% S/R
11% above market expectation
Plenty more niche than the previous Mullins angle, but some high strike-rates to work with and some tidy profits rolling through. The ability of Mullins to keep his Cheltenham winners simmering along for another victory next time out is yet another example of his genius…
System JO-112-85-03-24: Back Willie Mullins runners next time out during March-May when having won in March at the Cheltenham Festival.
Nicky Henderson
Probably no surprise that Nicky Henderson appears on the list, given that he wraps plenty of his string in cotton wool throughout the early part of the season. Whilst that may be frustrating for those that want to see the good horse out on the track more often, it does have its upside for the patient punter, with plenty of the Henderson string being nice and fresh for the spring, where they can reel off a couple of back to back victories…
This is the overall strike-rate with the Nicky Henderson last time out winners during the March, April, and May Period…
Nicky Henderson
Overall Last Time Out Winners Stats (March-April-May)
86/259 | 24% S/R | +£26.47 BFLSP – W&P 163/359 | 45% S/R
8% below market expectation
A little below what the market expects but backing them all on the exchanges would have produced a profit over the past ten seasons… so a decent starting point but a bit more work is needed to find some worthwhile profits… with the following being the strongest area that I found for the Henderson Last Time Out Winners in the Spring months…
Class 1 or Class 2 races over less than 3 mile 2 furlongs
Days Since last Run 90 or less.
16 or less career starts.
March-April-May
WON LTO
…which improves the Henderson figures to…
47/184 | 26% S/R | +£108.84 BFLSP – W&P 84/184 | 46% S/R
30% above market expectation
…concentrating on those Henderson LTO Winners in the top two class levels (but away from the marathon trips) that were still relatively lightly raced and had run at least once in the last three months is the way to go…
System JO-112-86-03-23: Back Nicky Henderson’s runners next time out during March-May when having won on their last outing and having had between 1-6 career runs and having run in the last 90 days.
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