Hi Kevin, firstly thank you for joining us this month. Can you tell our readers a little about your background, yourself and your interest in football?
Thanks for inviting me. For as far back as I can remember, football has been my life, and still is. My very first recollection was the Munich Air Disaster that devastated Manchester United.
From that moment I have been a massive supporter of the Reds (please don’t hold that against me). I have followed them through thick and thin, culminating in the greatest football night of my life, 26th May 1999 at the Camp Nou, Barcelona, where two injury time goals won the Champions League for United against Bayern Munich. It was just a never to be forgotten moment in history. I was 5 yards from Beckham when he took those 2 corners in injury time and about 2 yards from Solksjaer when he ran to the crowd after scoring the winning goal with virtually the last kick of the game.
The end to that game will never, ever be repeated and to be there and right in the thick of it was totally unforgettable.
As a kid I lived just 2 miles from the Leeds United training ground and in those days, there was no security, so I went as often as I could to watch them train. At that time, they were in the top 3 sides in Europe, not only could you watch them train, but you could meet them too.
Players such as Billy Bremner, Johnny Giles, Jack Charlton, Norman Hunter, Eddie Gray, Peter Lorimer, would happily give out autographs after training. Little did I know that just a year later I would be cleaning Johnny Giles’ boots as I was an apprentice in the Leeds Utd training programme for 2 years between the age of 14 and 16.
At 16 I didn’t get taken on as a professional but went on to spend my life playing in Amateur football, and in some ways that was probably the best thing that could have happened to me, as it allowed me to complete my education and get a job that I loved and still play football all my life.
I lived in a mining village in West Yorkshire and it was my Grandad who brought me to the world of betting. He had a very parochial life, working down the pit, drinking in the Working Men’s Club and betting in the betting shop at the end of our street. That was his life and he loved it, he also liked to include me in that too. He was not so much into football; his love was for the horses.
Often, he would take me with him to spend the afternoon at the Bookies. No colour tv then though, just a crackling radio to guide you through each race. He had a system, it was not a very good system, in fact it was a terrible system. Back the favourite. Of course, it never made him rich, in fact it often cleaned out his weekly wage, but he was a popular guy, and his knowledge of Maths was second to none.
That must be where my love of Maths and Statistics came from.
So, whilst football was my love I stayed on at school and then University, my Mum was always pushing me to make something of myself. I had the brains, she said, and I will always thank her for what she did for me. We lost my Mum just before Christmas with Covid and I do miss her so much. Thanks to her though, I ended up with a degree in Pure Maths and Stats. I didn’t know what I was going to do with them, but I found a use for them later in my life, as you will find out.
The next 30 years I spent working down the pit, not as a miner but as a Chartered Surveyor. During that time, I never thought once about betting, or about making a living from it, but the pits started shutting and eventually the day came, in 2000, when I was made redundant.
It was at that time when Betfair was just starting…….and so my new life began too!!
So Betfair came along, how did you develop your interest in football from that point?
There was so much happening in my life around the year 2000. I was 48, my working life down the pit was over, I had just got divorced, in essence I was starting all over again, it was a scary time in so many ways. I did ponder a while as to what I could do, there was not much call for ex-miners, certainly not for the money I was earning, so I was stuck just a little bit. As I was looking online for some inspiration, I came across Betfair for the first time.
I was more taken with all the blue and pink colours than anything else, but they got me transfixed, what did they all mean?
So of course, I tried to find out. It looked a very interesting concept. More or less 24 hour football and opportunities to Back or Lay, what could possibly go wrong?
Pretty much everything to be honest.
I went at it like a bull in a china shop. I had thought that with my interest in football and armed with what I learnt from my Grandad all those years ago I couldn’t fail. But fail I did. It took me 4 long years to decide to take a break from it. I sat myself down for a year to work out where I was going wrong. I spent that year just watching how the markets reacted to major events on the field and reading as much as I could on the subject of gambling.
First of all, I realised I was just following my Grandad’s failed system of Backing the favourite. Of course, it didn’t work, after all it didn’t work 35 years earlier when my Grandad showed me it on the horses, so why would it work now for me on the football. So that was my first lightbulb moment. Don’t always Back the favourite. In my reading, the topic of “Value” kept cropping up and so I started exploring this more closely. Second lightbulb moment.
Don’t look for winners, look for Value.
If you have value on your side then the winners will take care of themselves, as will your profit line. I then went on to discover a third lightbulb moment. At my first try on Betfair I was straight betting but of course that is not what Betfair is really all about. You can Bet and Lay all in the same market if you wish, so for me that was the third lightbulb moment.
Do not Bet, Trade instead.
From that point on things took a different turn, good trading systems aligned with value are the way to go.
What do you enjoy most about the sport and what led you to set up Goal Profits?
First of all, I loved playing the game from a very early age. I remember from the age of 10 playing four games each weekend during the season, and once I finished playing, I spent 10 years in football management. It is called the “beautiful game” and I can see why. For those who play it or go watch it, for those few hours you are in another world. Sometimes it takes you to the height of ecstasy, other times into the depths of despair. The fact that you never know which of those it will be, makes the game what it is, the “beautiful game”.
These days the fact that I can make a living from the game, alongside watching the game, gives me real enjoyment. For me it is no longer a battle with the other teams on the field, it is now a battle with other traders on the Exchange and that battle goes on between the left ear and the right ear, and winning that battle gives me the greatest enjoyment now. Of course, when I was playing you could never guarantee winning, and now it is the same with trading, you never know what the day will bring, will it be profit or loss will it be agony or ecstasy and that is why it is still the “beautiful game” or as I like to call it these pandemic days, the “unpredictable game”.
Once I had got the hang of Betfair I joined Twitter and put some of my trades on there.
A French website saw them and asked if I would work for them, which I did for a couple of years. Then I worked on a couple of English websites before starting my own website. I also did trading sessions at my own home at weekends for anyone who wanted to learn all about trading. It was at one of these sessions at my home that I first met Steve Brown. After that weekend we then went our different ways, but I got a call from him a couple of years later and he asked if I wanted to join him in a new website, he had just started that he called Goal Profits.
So, we met up and decided that we would give it a try. The rest is history. Goal Profits will be 10 years old this year and is still going from strength to strength. Just after Christmas we picked up our 18th award and of course we hope to go on collecting those awards for a long time yet.
What do you feel Goal Profits offers its’ subscribers above other football sites?
Goal Profits is totally different to any other football site out there on the net. It absolutely has something for everyone. It is a multi-faceted website that delivers a complete football service from beginner to seasoned pro, and one where all members are continually learning every single day, they are a member.
GP delivers an unbeatable customer service where members can almost get help 24/7 with any of their betting/trading queries and we are engaged in a process of continual professional development to the benefit of all our members. We never stand still; we move onwards and upwards all the time. Our first thought and our last thought is all about our members, we are nothing without them and we appreciate their never ending support at all times.
The amount of features we have at GP are incredible, including the Live Stats Module which give members so much information about games In-Play and gives Alerts to possible trades/bets in any game from the 79 Leagues we cover.
Then we have the League Table Analysis where we dissect the current League Tables to give members the heads up on where to be looking for value trades. This is especially powerful when used in conjunction with the Live Stats Module.
We have the famous Team Stats on which most of our systems are built. Within Team Stats there is the Custom Shortlist Pro where you can interrogate the Database to provide a Daily Shortlist of the games that satisfy your particular filters. In Team Stats there is also the Form and Trends which give you all the details you will ever want split down League by League over the last 5 games up to the last 10 years.
Goal Profits is tailored not only to Trading for Beginners, but also for Intermediate Trading and for Advanced Trading.
In each of these sections members will find systems, 14 in all, that suit their trading experience, along with detailed descriptions of each system.
We have a Chatroom where members can follow Live Trading with Steve and myself, along with a Forum where they can interact with other members and ask questions about anything connected with football trading.
A major part, especially for newbies to Goal Profits, is the Launchpad.
This is a product that takes members along a learning route from beginner to advanced trader. It takes in all our systems, giving more detailed explanations, with examples and Shortlists. Members can progress at their own pace, and only move forward when they are ready. All this is just scratching the surface of the things we give members at GP, there is so much more, it is a remarkable website that never fails to amaze and there is always something new that you will find, that you have never seen before.
How do you find the “value” in your trades, is this something that you now do instinctively, or do you calculate your own “value” prices?
Once I had finally decided that value was the route to success then I set about finding the methods I would use to find that elusive value. When you talk about value, I have to say there is no such thing as definitive value in sports betting/trading. Any value that you do calculate is only ever “perceived value”. That is because in sports betting there are far too many variables to absolutely be certain of actual value, it is only ever “perceived value”.
Once you have understood that you don’t beat yourself up so much when one of your “value” bets/trades goes down.
All you can ever do is try to find perceived value on all your bets/trades and then hope that luck goes with you once they kick-off. Do not underestimate the part that luck plays, it actually plays a massive role on whether you are a winner or a loser. But they do say the harder you work the luckier you get, so yes, look for the perceived value, you will get your fair share of luck and the winners will take care of themselves.
For my own particular trades, I make my own Book for whichever market I am looking at, it only takes seconds once you have got used to it, I have my own Database that helps with that. Value calculations are done using stats from games that have already been played.
The only question is, what time period do you use?
Are you a Short Form user, maybe 3 to 5 games, or do you use the current season stats, or the last 2 seasons, 3 seasons, 5 seasons or even 10 seasons for your calculations.
Personally, I go for a 3 year time span but then I split each League into A, B and C rated teams and when I do the value calculations I look to see if a team is playing an A, B or C rated team and only use the fixtures they have played against that type of opponent over the last 3 years for my calculation.
For Goal Profit members we give them a good start by using the Traffic Lights system. Using the seasonal stats, we highlight the best plays with Green, the worst with Red and somewhere in between with Amber.
All the calculations are done behind the scenes each and every day for all the 79 Leagues we cover, meaning that members have all the hard work done for them and they do not have to worry about any calculations at all.
Of course, whilst I say that you should always look for that perceived value that does not mean that they will always win. Once they step onto the field of play anything can happen and usually does.
The beautiful game becomes the unpredictable game once it starts, but the only way you can ever make long term profit in this game is if you only play games where you do have that value.
That is where Goal Profits does help members, by pointing them to the games where they can play with perceived value, and that is a very big advantage.
We are sure that you have seen some changes in the sport over the years. Dare we ask your opinion on VAR?
There have been many changes since I started playing. I know we were only allowed one substitute when I played, now they can have 3, 4 or even 5 and that will probably be extended next season when the head injury substitute comes in. Any changes that come in to help the safety of the game is a positive step for me, so I am all for that.
I am not against VAR in theory, it is the practical use of VAR that is doing its’ best to ruin the game.
Before VAR came in the immediate sheer elation of your team scoring was incredible, now you sometimes have to wait 5 minutes to find out if it is a goal or not. That is plainly ridiculous.
Thanks to goal line technology we know in a split second if the ball has crossed the goal line to give a goal, if VAR could give that same split second decision then I would be happy, but waiting 5 minutes is not on, so they have to find a different way. Disallowing a goal because a strand of hair is beyond the offside line is also ridiculous. They should make it far easier to decide on an offside, and they could do that by giving the benefit of the doubt to the attacker. If it is clear and obvious that the attacker’s body is beyond the offside line then fair enough, he is offside, but if his knee is 2mm over the offside line then the goal should stand. That would reduce the length of time it takes to decide if it is offside or not.
If you have to look at a video fifteen times before deciding a player was offside that is not clear and obvious to me. The goal should stand.
They have to improve the handball situation too.
This is another case where it should be pretty simple to decide if it is handball or not, but again it is taking far too long and far too often they are making the wrong decision. I don’t need to see it more than once to decide if it is a handball or not. Again, if it takes 15 replays to check a handball it is not clear and obvious, so let the game play on.
Football is an entertainment; it should be free flowing and keeping the crowd (when they are allowed back in) excited. It should not be a staccato offering. Waiting 5 minutes to know if a goal your side scored is allowed or not or waiting to decide a handball penalty or not should not be happening. I don’t think VAR was designed to disrupt the game so much. So offside and handball have to be looked at and made far simpler and more easily determined.
One thing they could do better is the time keeping.
Each ground should have a 45 minute countdown clock which starts ticking down at the kick-off in the first and second half. Someone off field would stop the clock for an injury, a substitute, a VAR review and the clock would only restart once the referee sets the game in motion again.
I hate time wasting, I know it is part and parcel of the game but for me it is not a positive thing, it is a negative thing. So, I would like the game to do something about it. I know the referee will book a player who indulges in time wasting but what I would like to see is that if the referee books someone for time wasting then 1 minute is also added to the time left. I would also include taking the ball into the corner and wasting time there as a time wasting event.
Something to think about at least.
Many will ask, is it possible to make a living from trading on football? How would you answer this and what additional advice would you offer the novice trader just setting out on their trading journey?
I get asked this question so many times. The easy answer is yes, but I will not give you the easy answer, I will give you the answer you really need to know before you even think about starting out on this road. This is a long, incredibly difficult, and bumpy road which should not be started on lightly.
It takes a very special type of person to make long term profit in this game, but if you are that special person then I can honestly say that you will love the journey and it will change your life forever.
So, what does this special person look like?
First of all, they must be highly motivated and determined, not easily put off by the many setbacks that they will inevitably have to overcome. It is a lonely existence where you must be able to shut yourself away from the world for hours on end without any interruptions, because you need to be totally focused when you are trading. So, if you have a young, demanding family it will probably not suit your circumstances.
Discipline and patience are key ingredients that a successful trader will need. If you have no discipline then you should not even think of becoming a trader, because you will chase your losses and kill your bank time and time again. Save yourself lots of heartache and forget all about football trading. You need patience so that you wait for the right opportunities and do not trade every game you see.
I am a firm believer that less is more, the fewer games I trade the more profit I make. So, wait for the right game, do not wait for just any game.
A successful trader must have a real grasp of their financial arrangements. Staking, bank management, bank turnover are all key components as to whether you make long term profits or not. Whatever the size of your bank you should split it into points, depending what odds you are trading at that may be 50, 100 or 200 points.
My maximum risk on any trade I do will be 1pt, and I usually split my bank into 100pt.
So, my liability at any one time would be a maximum of 1% of my bank. You do need to make your bank work for you, and that is what I mean with bank turnover.
For instance, say you have a bank of £10,000 and all you do is have 10 trades a month with a maximum liability of £10 on each trade. That means you are only risking 1% of your bank over the entire month. Your bank is not working hard enough and so is not optimising your profit potential.
I try and turn my bank over every 4 to 6 weeks which means I trade 100pt over that 4 to 6 week time period.
All of that means that you do need to have at least a decent understanding of Maths.
Football is a game played on the field, football trading is a game played between the left ear and the right ear.
So basically, football trading is a game of maths where you need to be able to quickly disseminate information as the game goes In-Play and odds change. Maths will also allow you to understand when you have perceived value on your side, and as I have said before you should only ever be trading when you have that value on your side.
These are some of the major attributes you need to become a successful trader, but that is just part of it.
Then you need to learn the art of trading itself, and that will take an inordinate amount of time. Choosing the right trades, learning your best entry and exit points for each particular trade. Learning how markets move when a goal goes in, or a Red Card is given. Learning the hundreds of ways in which you can trade games. It is a long process, but if you can crack it then it will all have been worthwhile.
If you are ever thinking of trying it out for yourself then Goal Profits is certainly the best possible place to start.
My advice to novice traders is to think about it seriously before you get involved.
It is one of the most difficult professions in which to make a long term profit. Do not believe those adverts that show you flashy cars and big houses, they are lies!! It is a long, arduous, lonely road you will travel, that is why such a small percentage of traders make it.
Do not expect to make any profit in the first year, if you are level after 12 months then you have a good chance of making a small profit in the second year, but what you must do is to temper your expectations.
You are not going to make substantial profits for a number of years, so do not give up your normal job.
The one advantage novice traders now have is that there is so much information available to them now, which did not exist when I first started over 20 years ago. So, it may not take you 5 years to make profit, but do not be surprised if you are still struggling to keep your head above water even after 3 years.
From that, you will see that you have to look long term, not short term.
What Goal Profits does, for all members, is to take the hard work out of finding the games for you to play. It shows you how to trade them, how to stake correctly, and all of that will help you reduce the time it takes to become consistently profitable.
It is the one place stop for all people interested in football trading.
Do you still enjoy your own football trading? Have you always traded, or have you ever placed outright gambles?
When I first joined Betfair I only used straight betting, and as you know I had 4 years of losses before I took a break. When I did come back a year later, I started trading only, no more betting. That is why I always tell people to trade rather than bet. The thing I like about trading is the total control it gives you.
If you are a bettor then once you have handed over your stake money your control is lost. There is nothing you can do, you will either win or lose, and most times it will be a loser.
Trading gives you far more control, and because of that it also gives you far less stress, which is always good.
When I first started, I was not only betting on Football but also Horse Racing, and that did not help me at all. Far too many legs on a horse for me, so I quickly dropped that sport. Since then, I have concentrated solely on Football. It is the sport that I enjoy most and is by far, the one I know most about.
Yes, I am still loving my trading, even though this season has been a bit of a leap in the dark due to the pandemic. I do hope that we can get back to something more like normal when the new season starts in August, so that our fantastic Database on GP can give us even more help.
Are there any future plans to develop Goal Profits further?
At Goal Profits we pride ourselves on continually moving forward and bringing new systems to members on almost a weekly basis. At the moment we have only just scratched the surface of what we can do with regards to Team Stats so we will certainly be expanding that this year.
We have many new plans for 2021 which include developing lots of new Football systems across all levels. We have just started sending out Telegram and e-mail alerts to members once the games go In-Play, which will be of great benefit to lots of them. Using the Custom Shortlist Pro, we will develop a number of betting/trading options with value on members side so that daily they will have a ready made list of premium games to play. Our focus is to make things easier and simpler for members to follow and to make long term profit.
The League Table Analysis is currently being updated to give even better and more accurate expectations of forthcoming games.
In the LTA we use Home/Away seasonal form to read how a game will go and then put it into figures as to how we expect that game to play out in both the first half and second half, and often members will get very big odds indeed and it can be used as a bet or a trade.
This is a fantastic tool that has become a favourite with many GP members, and me too by the way!!
The Live Stats Module is another firm favourite, and it is another platform that we will be building on over the next year. This gives members so much data on games In-Play. Every single minute of the game we show what the odds should be for Home, Away, Draw, Overs, Unders to give members an idea of whether to get into the game or not. There is much more we can do with this platform and we will certainly be striving to do just that.
For the delayed Euro 2020 Championship we will be putting together an unrivalled e-book that will guide members through the Tournament and show them where to be placing their money in multiple markets. These have become very popular over the years, where we cover the Euros, World Cup and other major tournaments and try to make some nice profit for our members.
There are numerous other projects that we will be looking at during 2021 and stretching out into the 2021/22 season and beyond.
For us at GP it is a never ending process and we are looking forward to making GP even better, even bigger, and even more profitable for all our members.
You can currently try Goal Profits for just £1 – Click Here for full details