Updated for 2022
Horse Racing Betting Systems
For regular readers of these articles, you will know that I enjoy looking at horse racing betting systems. However, I haven’t until now looked at how backing favourites can make your betting more profitable.
In this brief article, I will attempt to show how you can have some fun and even more importantly profit from backing favourites in UK horse racing.
Now many punters, myself included, like the idea of taking a punt on a big priced outsider in a race. You feel great when it comes off. All that study of the race and you're one of the few who's managed to pick that big priced winner that no one else has. Therefore, being more adventurous, by backing the outsider, can pay off extremely well. But it doesn’t happen often enough.
Now when it comes to backing favourites, plenty of punters avoid them. You will no doubt have heard or read people say that the tipster or punter, “they only back or tip favourites”. It’s usually said or written with a fair level of scorn too.
However, it shouldn’t be like that because backing the right favourites really is the way to long term profits.
What percentage of favourites win horse races uk
34.4% of favourites have won their race over the last five years.
The table below shows the data for all UK races and the data shows the strike rate and returns for the clear favourite in the Betfair market at the off.
You can see that the strike rate is pretty consistent and that you would have lost a small percentage of your turnover if you had backed them all and slightly less if you had layed them all.
The Favourite-Longshot Bias Rears Its Head
In betting and financial markets, you will often come across something called the “favourite-longshot bias”. Putting it simply bettors overvalue the “longshots” and undervalue favourites or in other words, favourites are under bet whilst longshots are overbet.
Plenty of empirical studies have shown this to be correct since the term first came into use in the late 1940s. If you want to read a good academic article on the “favourite-longshot bias”, then I highly recommend: “Why is There A Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets” by Leighton Vaughan Williams and David Paton, for the Economic Journal (Jan 1997). Now it’s over 25-years-old but its relevance remains and it’s an excellent nine-page introduction to the phenomenon.
To see if the favourite-longshot bias was still happening I took a look at the stats for the 2021 Flat season, as I thought the picture painted of winning ‘longshots’ isn’t a good one.
I took runners going off at 20/1 & bigger as outsiders. Such qualifiers produced the following set of results:
244 winners from 14718 runners and – £6,071 to £1 level stakes
A 1.64% strike rate with 8% placing and the Return on Investment was – 41%
I further looked at how runners sent off at odds between 4/1 & 9/1 fared. They produced the following figures:
1644 winners 13654 runners – 12% Strike Rate and – £2369 to £1 level stakes
The loss on such runners was still high at -16.38% ROI
Meanwhile looking at the stats for favourites (clear, co & joint) for the 2021 flat season.
Favourites Clear Co and Joint
1686 winners from 5377 for a 31% Strike Rate and – £422
Granted you would still have lost backing all favourites during the season just gone but the loss would be a more manageable -7.85%.
So, the proportion of races won by the favourite is running at a healthy 33%.
Taking this a bit further. Odds-on favourites won around 58% of their races losing 6.73%.
Seeing those results, looking on with disdain at favourite backers doesn’t really make sense.
Backing the Right Favourites
The key, of course, if you want to back favourites for a living or for profit is to find the right favourites to back. People who back favourites tend to assume that each favourite has the best chance in the race.
This assumption is wrong!
As the above figures show just one third of favourites win their races which still means two-thirds of favourites don’t so they must be “False Favourites”.
Most professional punters will tell you that about 40% of favourites are false and I haven’t seen anything that disputes that figure. So, 40% of favourites are going off at shorter odds then they should.
Even if you get 30 winners from 100 bets, you would need to be getting average odds of 11/8 on each winning favourite to just break even. This is no easy task I can assure you.
Now if we accept that 40% of favourites are false favourites and you could find them before the race you would be looking at striking 40 losers from 100 bets which could increase your strike rate from 33% to a 55% winning strike rate.
Now I can hear you say that’s all well and good but how do you eliminate those 40 false favourites?
It’s not my intention to go into any detail how you do that in this article.
But here are a few filters you can use:
- Jockeys – Avoid favourites not ridden by a top jockey.
- Course – Avoid favourites that have yet to prove they handle the track they are racing on.
- Trainers – Avoid trainers with low winning strike rates at the track.
- Going – Avoid favourites that haven’t proven they handle the prevailing going.
- Draw – Avoid favourites that haven’t got a good draw which is very important at some tracks.
These are just a few examples that you can use to help eliminate those 60% of false favourites and be backing strong favourites. Which will help in increasing your percentage of winners.
The savvy favourite backer, whose an investor not a gambler, by the way, won’t bet on all races but they will limit their investments to only those favourites with a strong chance.
Favourites Horse Racing System
- Start with the favourite
- Reject any not ridden by a top jockey
- Reject any without good form at the course
- Reject any trained by a yard with a low strike rate or poor recent form
- Reject any not proven on todays's ground and going
- Reject any with a poor draw
- Back any that are not rejected by earlier steps
Backing favourites successfully boils down to being selective and finding discrepancies between your opinion and projected odds and the price offered by the bookies.
Never dismiss a favourite that’s odds on. Indeed, they can be some of the best value bets you ever place.
For example: If a punter puts on £1000 on a 1/2 favourite, if it wins, he’s pocketed a cool £500 profit. Another punter puts £10 on the same horse, he gets a return of £5. To the former punter, it’s a good bet to the latter the small profit doesn’t seem worth the risk.
But of course, it remains a value bet.
Betting is a long-term game with the aim of winning money over the long-term. I have a few micro-systems that involve backing favourites. The profits are small but over 12 months ROI is still better than I would get from any bank savings account.
I can’t give you the exact details of the betting systems I use, due to the fact that as soon as details of a successful betting system are shared, any profitability is soon reduced significantly and can be wiped out completely.
But I can give you some pointers to help you create your own winning horse racing favourites system.
The Right Sort of Races
For the purpose of this exercise I shall be using the Racing Post website.
At the time of writing this, it’s day one of Cheltenham’s two-day International Meeting. Going to the Racing Post website. I click through to the Cheltenham course stats and click on the favourites tab.
The page will look like this:
What I am looking for are races where favourites have a good win strike rate, I look for 40% and above.
The higher, of course, the better.
It’s great if the favourite in these types of race makes a level stakes profit over the five years but it’s not essential if the levels stakes loss is small.
Looking at those Cheltenham course stats. We can forget about the favourites in the handicap races. Low win strike-rates and big losses!
Non-handicap hurdles are the most interesting the win strike rate is 45% with a small level stakes profit +7.73.
Now let’s turn to Doncaster, doing the same as I did for Cheltenham opens up the following page.
The first thing that jumps off the page is the strength of the favourites at the track, excluding NHF races. Indeed, compare the record of handicap hurdle favourites at Doncaster to Cheltenham!
Favourites in jumps handicaps at Doncaster are doing rather well. Yet for some reason they are being under bet by the betting public.
You can go through each track to see which races offer the best potential for backing favourites and putting the odds in your favour,
Using my qualifying criteria, favourites in non-handicap hurdle races at Cheltenham and at Doncaster favourites in non-handicap chases and handicap hurdle would qualify.
The Doncaster non-handicap hurdles have the requisite high win-strike rate at 47% but the level stakes loss is big and such favourites are going off at lower odds than they should be.
Now, this isn’t the end of the process, you need to add this knowledge to the systems pointers we outlined above and you will start to know when to back the favourite in horse races and be on the way to creating your own profitable horse racing betting system.
You still need to have the right staking plan and look at the individual race in more detail. But hopefully what I have outlined gives you a bit of a flavour of how you can have some fun and make money betting on favourites.
Always remember to be selective and look for the right races to bet in.
That’s what the professionals do!
Until next time.
If you enjoy betting favourites and winning often join John Burkes Consistent Profits service – https://consistentprofits.co.uk
More from John Burke
Most profitable horse racing system
In past years it seemed like every month there was a new second favourites racing system being touted as the bets thing to make money.
There's no doubt that plenty of second favourites win, but not near to the percentage of favourites that win, the fact is the basics outlined above will work for second favourites and there can be more value in second favourites because they are not so over bet as favourites, but my advice would be to assess the favourites in a race and if you can find a weakness or if you think they shouldn't be favourite then investigate the rest if the market, starting with the 2nd fav.
Again this used to be a favourite with systems betters and there is a lot to be said for selecting the best race of the day, the one with the best prize money, and assessing that for your bet.
Use the methods described above the breakdown the best race and if the favourite looks strong have a bet.
Pretty much that is what is outlined on this page, start with the favourite and reject if it doesn't meet the criteria listed above.
This a great strategy especially if you can't tolerate losing runs, if a favourite meets the criteria outlined then if it doesn't win there is a good chance that it will be beaten by just one surprise entry and will finish in a place.
Many have done this over the years including some if the most famous pro gamblers.
So what can you expect, well your return on investment will be lower than betting at bigger prices because the margin on favourites is tighter, but you will have a high strike rate, in fact some skilled practicioners who use similar methods to those outlined on this page manage a strike rate in the 70's.
A high strike rate is great for confidence and for sticking with things through poor patches.
Start with the best races, check that the favourite meets the criteria outlined above and you will be on lots of winners.
The problem with your assessment of all runners over 20/1 having a massive loss, is that it probably includes many races with many runners sharing odds over 20/1. What if you only backed a runner at or over 20/1 if it was the only runner, or perhaps only two of them. The statistics would be way different. I know, I back outsiders. One 20/1 + equals 20 winners at evens! The trick is to see what other factors can help sort out ones with a better chance. Ridden by a successful jockey or trainer for example. There are many ways to skin a rabbit or bookie! 🙂