Horses Returning From a Lay Off

When I first began my punting journey back the mid 80s, it seemed a given that horses returning from a long lay off didn’t win races. They always needed a run or two to reach winning form. Those days have long gone. Changes in training methods, improvements in veterinary care, stable facilities, such as swimming pools, all weather gallops have all combined to mean that the big trainers and of course some smaller ones are able to get horses to win after a long lay off from the track.

In this article I will be investigating horses that are returning from an absence from the track and see how they can be underestimated by the betting public. I will also show some practical examples of horses that run better when fresh and trainers who can prepare one after a lay off and those that don’t.

Why the prejudice against lay off horses?

As punters we tend to approach betting on horses as we first learned it. I know that I have and I am sure you will have stuck with some of the fundamentals that you learned as a betting newcomer. Because so many punters still view layoffs of 90 days or more as a significant fitness obstacle, there can be value in horses returning to the course after a break.
Medication and the growing fragility of thoroughbreds have changed horse racing… Horses need more time between races to recover, and on the flip side, sometimes don't need as much activity to win off a layoff.

In this change there lies an opportunity for bettors to capitalise. This is not to say that all layoff horses make great bets. They do not. On a whole they remain less effective than their active opponents, whom have been running regularly. There are exceptions, and these are the ones to embrace.

Fillies, particularly those who are naturally light, run well when fresh. Some even run better. A series of hard races can cause these fillies to dip below what their trainers feel are their target weight levels. So when they return from time off – which often is spent out in a field grazing – they come back rejuvenated. Then they often proceed to run good efforts from the get go!

How do you spot such a horse on paper or if you are at the course looking at the horses in the paddock?

Horses that run well off layoffs tend to continually do so. They don't always win, but they outperform their odds and run high Racing Post Ratings after layoffs that beat their other runs.

One good way to spot a horse who thrives on rest is to glance through his entire past performances. Has the horse won off a layoff or run well. How do there layoff RPR’s compare to their other RPR’s?

And in the case of a lightly raced horse, was the animal able to win his debut – which would closely resemble a comeback race?

If the horse shows evidence of performing well off layoffs, these types should be given more than a second glance – even more so if their trainers win at a high percentage with layoff runners.

Granted, they still must still have the class to win the race they are running in and have ground conditions in their favour.

Looking at the horse in the paddock

Horses are not machines and they are more than just form figures on paper. Nothing beats actually seeing horses in the paddock before they race and it can provide more clues as to their fitness or indeed capacity to run well fresh.

I could go into paddock appearance in much more detail than the scope of this article. But a simple rule to follow when paddock watching:

A horse that is fit to run well after a lay off will not be noticeably heavy in looks, won’t be carrying too much condition. They will be lean and their coat will look in good health. When it comes to looking at fillies, look for legs that don’t stop and a fit looking chest.

There are clues out there for those that want to spot them. Previous winning performances after a similar absence from the course and of course using trainer stats to identify those trainers who can be called: ‘Master’s of the lay off’.

Let’s begin by looking at some examples of previous winning performances after a break.

How well has horse run after a lay off before?

Many punters seem to ignore the obvious and the obvious can usually be the best place to look. This underestimation by the average punter can be used to profitable advantage. Here are two examples of horses that do exceptionally well on a first run back after a 90 day+ break. But first, let’s take a look at some stats from National Hunt races run from the start of 2016 until the time of writing this article.

The Stats

Horses which ran over jumps in Britain and Ireland from 1st January 2016 to 14th September 2017 showed a loss of 8.21% (80247 runners) at Betfair SP.

Those horses returning from a 90+ day break showed a loss of 6.12% (12919 runners) at Betfair SP. The latter group also includes trainers who perform much better than average.

Horse’s returning from a 300+ day lay off showed a 9.69 loss (3192 runners) to Betfair SP

The Horses

Example – Ballinure
A seven-year-old National Hunt horse, trained by Nicky Henderson who has a respectable career record of – 5 wins from 15 runs 33% +7.5 A/E 1.48 ExpWins 3.37 but if we look at his performance when racing from a 60 day+ break he has had – 4 wins from 6 runs 66% +12.55 A/E 2.3 ExpWins 1.74. Clearly he is a horse who does much better when he has a decent gap between his races.

Example – Vieux Lion Rouge
Another National Hunt horse this time trained by David Pipe. The eight-year-old has been well placed since starting to race for the trainer. As evidenced by career record for David Pipe – 11 wins from 22 runs 50% +18.84 A/E 1.68 ExpWins 6.54.

Once again if we look at his performance when returning from an absence of 60 day’s+ he has had 6 wins from 9 runs 63% +22.11 A/E 2.43 ExpWins 2.06. Whilst it’s not as clear as the previous example we can still see that the horse is better when returning from a lay off and looking at the A/E stats we can see that he performs much better than the market expects.

Granted these horse’s don’t always win after an absence, if only the game was that simple, but for those punters who realised that both horse’s can perform significantly better off a lay off have been rewarded with nice pay days. I haven’t backed the Henderson horse but I was on Vieux Lion Rouge when he won on his seasonal reappearance at Aintree last November.

How good is the trainer at preparing a horse after a lay off?

It’s fair to say that whilst a horse may perform better after a break, if the trainer isn’t adept at getting one ready to win on their return or doesn’t want it to win on this occasion then the above point has limited utility for us. Hence why I like to look out for trainer’s who are profitable with fresh horses.

So we can find trainers who are good at bringing horses to go well after a lay off, conversely there are those trainers whose runners we should be cautious about when it comes to their horses returning from a break. This doesn’t make them bad trainers it just means they have a different ‘modus operandi’ and get their horses fit on the racecourse rather than at home. I would consider that the trainer is the most important criteria when it comes to assessing a horse’s chance after a layoff.

The Trainers

As I pointed out earlier we need to acquaint ourselves with a trainer’s record with their runners when returning from a lay off, those that do well with such horses and conversely those that don’t do so well.

Here are some examples of trainers, with 10 or more qualifying runners in the period under review, who are good or bad at preparing a horse to run well after a long break.

Starting with two trainers, who perform well with their runners returning from a 90+day break, for the purpose of this research, I have looked at the trainer’s runners in handicaps only.

Trainers with 90 + day lay off runners

Example – John Gosden
John Gosden is certainly a trainer who can prepare a horse off after a lay off. Since 2014 he has had – 32 winners from 117 runners 27% +31.21 58 placed 50% A/E 1.19 ExpWins 26.93 with runners in handicaps racing after a 60 day+ break.

Interestingly his best periods with lay off horses is between July & October, as he’s had – 14 winners from 39 runners 36% +51.51 23 placed 59% A/E 1.83 ExpWins 7.63.

Example – Pam Sly
Compared to John Gosden, Pam Sly is at the other end of the training spectrum certainly in terms of the number of horses she trains. Since 2014 she has had – 10 winners from 40 runners 25% +97.5 17 placed 43% A/E 2.31 ExpWins 4.32 in handicaps with runners returning from a 60 day+ lay off.

Now let’s look at three trainers whose handicap runners benefit from their first runs after an absence and whose lay off runners I would be very cautious about backing.

Example – Tony Carroll
Tony Carroll looks like a trainer who gets his horse fit on the racecourse rather than at home. Since 2014 he has had – 10 winners from 271 runners 4% -160.5 39 placed 14% A/E 0.45 ExpWins 22.2.

Example – Tony Coyle
Tony Coyle is another whose horse’s are not up to winning after a lay off. Since 2014 he has had – 2 winners from 107 runners 2% -93.5 placed 15% A/E 0.24 ExpWins 8.16

Example – David Griffiths
The trainer has had plenty of success with the likes of Take Cover and Duke of Firenze in recent years but his record with handicap runners returning from a 60+day break is not good. Since 2014 he has had – 0 wins from 69 runners 0% -69 5 placed 7% A/E 0 ExpWins 5.47. Looking at the expected wins figure is very instructive, as he could have been expected to have had 5 winners in the period under study.

Trainers with 300 + day lay off runners

Now lets look at those National Hunt trainers who do well with horses returning from an even longer break of 300 days + and those that don’t. Once again the trainer’s had to have had at least 10 qualifying runners; I have included all races on this occasion and also increased the period under analysis to January 1st 2014.

Example – Deborah Hamer
3 winners from 10 runners 30% +15.75 A/E 3.53 ExpWins 0.85 5 placed 50%

Example – Charlie Mann
4 winners from 16 runners 25% +16.25 A/E 3.13 ExpWins 1.28 5 placed 31%

Example – Ben Pauling
6 winners from 23 runners 26% +30.25 A/E 2.01 ExpWins 2.71 9 placed 39%

Now some examples of the not so good, interestingly all top Irish National Hunt Trainers

Example – Tony Martin
0 wins from 38 runners 0% -38 A/E 0 ExpWins 4.59 7 placed 18%

Example – Henry De Bromhead
1 win from 40 runners 3% -36.75 A/E 0.2 ExpWins 4.99 6 placed 15%

Example – Charles Byrnes
0 wins from 24 runners 0% -24 A/E 0 ExpWins 2.26 2 placed 8%

Hopefully the above will help when you assess the chances of horses from the above stables when they have runners returning from a lay off.

*All above stats sourced from the excellent horseracebase.com

Summary

As you can see the days when you could disregard a horse because they were returning from a long break are gone. Horses that have run well off an absence are likely to do so again. Indeed many of them will have poor form figures which means the runners will be ignored by the betting public offering more value betting opportunities for us. But for me the most component part of the puzzle is the ability of the trainer to bring a horse back to win after a layoff. Hopefully now you won’t miss out on the likes of Vieux Lion Rouge

If nothing else, hopefully this article will help you to identify those value betting opportunities when they arise and maybe even inspire you to do your own research on the subject.

I hope you have found this piece informative and all that’s left is to wish you a profitable months betting.

Until next time!

John Burke

John Burke is the brains behind the successful Victor Value tipping service you can try it for just £1 Click Here