Chelmsford Horse Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Chelmsford Racecourse Template for Saturday 13 January 2024.
There is a 7-race card containing 4 Handicaps, a Classified Stakes, a Novice and a Maiden Race.
The going is expected to be standard.
Winning Favourites (5 Years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 54-161 34% -51.70 26-65 40% +14.59 3yo 59-142 42% -21.35 115-332 35% -30.25 4yo+ 35-89 39% -2.88 212-631 34% -33.97 TOTAL 148-392 38% -75.93 353-1028 34% -49.63 TOP 5 TRAINERS at CHELMSFORD past 5 years +/- E Michael Appleby (11%) 62-481 13% -80.66 +2% 3 Stuart Williams (10%) 40-340 12% -151.93 -2% 3 Richard Hughes (13%) 34-170 20% +70.47 +7% 0 David Simcock (14%) 33-181 18% +8.48 +4% 1 Saeed Suroor (20%) 20-97 21% -22.72 +1% 0 2023 +/- E Michael Appleby (11%) 15-109 14% -25.80 +3% 3 Charlie Johnston (14%) 13-64 20% -2.96 +6% 0 S & E Crisford (20%) 11-40 28% +13.33 +8% 0 David Simcock (14%) 9-42 21% +37.37 +7% 1 Ed Dunlop (11%) 9-59 15% -12.87 +4% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at CHELMSFORD past 5 years +/- R Luke Morris (9%) 47-457 10% +21.80 +1% 0 Callum Shepherd (11%) 46-325 14% +78.24 +3% 0 Jack Mitchell (17%) 43-245 18% -6.91 +1% 3 David Probert (12%) 40-335 12% -95.64 +0% 0 Marco Ghiani (14%) 39-252 15% -13.15 +1% 3 2023 +/- R Marco Ghiani (14%) 17-86 20% +27.18 +6% 3 Jack Mitchell (17%) 15-76 20% +4.40 +3% 3 Rossa Ryan (16%) 15-82 18% -17.21 +2% 0 Robert Havlin (16%) 13-76 17% -15.21 +1% 0 Ross Coakley (12%) 11-49 22% +19.45 +10% 2 TOP 5 OWNERS at CHELMSFORD past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 43-176 24% -39.79 -1% 0 Saeed Manana (17%) 12-58 21% -11.30 +4% 0 Ahmed Maktoum (24%) 10-35 29% +2.43 +5% 0 Saeed Suhail (19%) 9-25 36% +10.63 +17% 0 Hamdan Maktoum (21%) 9-27 33% +4.62 +12% 0
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Chelmsford over the past 5 years show 501-1420 for 35.28% and a level stake loss of -125.56 so around 3% above the national average.
Unusually, we note there is only a small differential between winning non-handicap favourites and handicap favourites showing 38% v 34%, this is not typical across the UK Racecourses and especially on the AW tracks.
BEST CATEGORY: 3yo Non-Handicaps 59-142 for 42% (-21.35)
WORST CATEGORY: 4yo+ Handicaps 212-631 for 34% (-33.97)
CONFIGURATION: Chelmsford City (first opened in April 2008 under the name Great Leighs) has a Polytrack surface and is essentially galloping in nature, having broad, sweeping turns.
It is a left-handed track of just over a mile in circumference, with seven-furlong and one-mile races starting in different spurs.
TRAINERS: Top trainer at the track in 2023 and over the past 5 years is Michael Appleby (11%) and he has 3 runners including TWISTALINE 4.15, PAVLODAR 6.45 & AT LIBERTY 7.15.
Second top trainer Stuart Williams (10%) also has 3 runners including MONITOLA 4.15, EXPERT AGENT 5.45 & HARRY THE HAGLER 6.45.
JOCKEYS: Two jockeys with 3 rides of interest are Jack Mitchell (17%) who has 3 rides including BLAZES BOYLAN 5.15, DYNAMIC FORCE 5.45 & LEGENDE D'ART 6.45.
Marco Ghiani (14%) also has 3 rides including SUPER HIT 4.45, RAFFLES ANGEL 5.15 & HARRY THE HAGLER 6.45
OWNERS: None of the top 5 owners at this course have a runner for this meeting.
RED FLAG: TRH thought it prudent to remind members about Charlie Appleby and his AW runners in preparation for 2024.
He struck at between 27% – 47% at the courses in 2023 and his winning total showed 39-107 for 36.45%. Just a modicum of filtration is needed to make a tidy profit.
Chelmsford 6-13 46% +1.16 Kempton 16-46 35% +2.28 Lingfield 7-15 47% +4.51 Newcastle 3-8 38% +1.28 Southwell 1-3 33% -0.50 Wolverhampton 6-22 27% -10.10
By the way, he recorded 25 second places within those figures making it 64-107 for 59.81% finishing in the first two places, so more than useful for forecast betting!
Pertinence
4.15
TWISTALINE (M Appleby) winner in the last 7 days, Ali Rawlinson rides 5.45
NEW HOPE BULLET (A Haynes) weighted to win 72 > 67 Kieran O'Neill rides
PONTIUS (C Hills) trainer +£58.50 when one runner at a meeting, William Cox rides
4.45
SUPER HIT (M Botti) trainer +£42.00 with debutants, looks first string. Marco Ghiani rides and 35% on debutants
HAVANA FORCE (M Botti) trainer +£42.00 with debutants, Jimmy Quinn rides. Jockey NA of 3% and currently 0-41 (162 days)
POST RIDER (P & O Cole) promising 2nd of 10 in C&D maiden debut 58 days ago, clear of rest. Should progress. Kieran O'Neill rides
5.15
JUICY (R Spencer) cannot be opposed, winner on debut, RPR of 83 and next best 46, Jason Hart rides
5.45
EXPERT AGENT (S Williams) trainer +£33.01 with horses running over shorter trip for first time, has won from current mark before, looks to be coming to hand for new yard. Trainer won this race in 2022, Jason Hart rides
PETIT CALVADOS (E J O'Neill) last time out winner, Kevin Stott rides and 34% on favourites
6.15
GRAND DUCHESS OLGA (J Fielden) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, trainer +£13.08 with favourites. Dylan Hogan rides
MAN OF RIDDLES (M Young) weighted to win 74 > 63, Grace McEntee (3) rides
DOUBLETHETROUBLE (J Butler) firmly knocking on the door prior to below par effort returning from 7-week break at Southwell. Paddy Bradley (3) rides
6.45
HARRY THE HAGLER (S C Williams) beaten favourite last time out, Marco Ghiani rides
LEGENDE D'ART (H Spiller) course winner, weighted to win 65 > 62, Jack Mitchell rides
HIGH COURT JUDGE (H Spiller) C&D winner, weighted to win 67 > 58, Ross Coakley rides
7.15
GREAT BLASKET (Newland & Insole) beaten favourite last time out, first time cheek pieces, Gina Mangan (3) rides
TRIBAL WISDOM (I Williams) better than result when finishing a couple of places behind Great Blasket, on reduced mark. Jason Hart rides
Nobody can fault the layout of Chelmsford, because it’s superb, absolutely immaculate, with lovely turns and a good long straight. You’d struggle to find a horse that can’t handle the sweep of the bends and you can ride into them as hard as you can anywhere. Lots of people have noticed there’s been a pace bias, making it hard to come from behind, and that the kickback was severe. That should change now they’re working on resurfacing and, potentially, it’s as good an all-weather venue as you’ll find.
– Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse